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Predicting the top 10 of anything is usually an exercise in futility. Trying to predict the top 10 finishers in saves is just silly because there is so much turnover at the back of every MLB bullpen every season.
Last season, at least half of the teams in baseball had their Opening Day closer displaced for a significant period of time, be that due to injury or poor performance. In addition, closers and late-inning help are usually in high demand around the trade deadline, so bullpens tend to get shuffled around in the middle of the season, opening doors for some relievers and closing (no pun intended) doors for others.
The list of predictions below is less "chalky" than normal because it would be an extremely boring article if I just listed the ten guys with the most secure jobs in baseball. So with that said, my picks for the top ten save-getters in 2018.
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Top 10 Firemen for 2018
10. Addison Reed, Minnesota Twins
Yes, Fernando Rodney is projected to be the Opening Day starter. That shouldn't be an issue for Reed, especially considering that the Twins are trying to win now; I'm sure that manager Paul Molitor would prefer to have a lights-out closer in Reed than Rodney, who has been historically shaky in the 9th inning. Since his move from Arizona to the Mets in September 2015, Reed has put together a 2.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 169 innings. So long as he keeps pitching like he has over the past two seasons and change, Rodney shouldn't be able to hold on to the closer job for too long. And once Reed takes over, he'll be one of the premier closers in fantasy baseball.
9. Carl Edwards Jr., Chicago Cubs
Two Opening Day closers losing their jobs in the first two guys on the list? I did say I was going to be bold. Edwards, much like Reed, has been nothing short of dominant over the past two seasons and change. He boasts career MLB numbers of a 3.28 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 12.62 K/9. He's had some issues with walks, but he has also been one of the most effective Cubs relievers since becoming a full-time big leaguer. Morrow only has 18 career saves to his name in 11 seasons, so there is not exactly a track record of success in the late innings there. Maddon may start handing Edwards the ball in the 9th sooner rather than later if Morrow proves to be ineffective.
8. Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays
Colome has racked up 84 saves in the past two seasons combined. In 2017, he led the big leagues in saves with 47. Colome is one of the better closers in the game, but there is a definite possibility that the Rays will end up shipping him to another team this season. After trading Evan Longoria, the Rays seem to be entering somewhat of a partial rebuild, and a reliever with two more years of team control after 2018 and a track record of success in late innings is sure to bring back a solid haul on the trade market. Colome being relatively low on this list is more of a product of the possibility he may be traded than an expectation that he will begin to falter in the 9th inning.
7. Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
This is the man that could very well end up breaking Mariano Rivera's save record. Mariano did not rack up a single career save until his age-26 season and Osuna enters 2018 at the young age of 23 with 98 career saves to his name. Mariano had an insane career, pitching 19 years and collecting 126 saves in his age-40, 41, 42, and 43 seasons combined, but Osuna got a head start. So long as Osuna does not suffer a career-ending injury, he should be a mainstay on the top-10 saves list for the next decade-plus.
6. Ken Giles, Houston Astros
The Astros are projected to win the AL once again which means there should be plenty opportunities for Giles to mop up at the end of games. Since moving to Houston, the 27-year-old fireballer has notched 49 saves in two seasons, and this team has made it clear that they want Giles to close games for them as long as he can remain effective. Giles faltered a bit in the playoffs last season, but do not let that affect your valuation of him heading into 2018; he is still a high-end closer.
5. Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers
Knebel burst onto the scene last year and became one of baseball's elite closers. In his first three seasons (2014-2016), Knebel put up a 4.03 ERA in 91.2 IP which is not awful for a reliever, but it is certainly not something to be especially proud of. Last season, he completely turned the tides by posting a 1.78 ERA, 39 saves, 14.9 K/9, and pitching in an NL-high 76 games. Knebel does not have much competition at the back end of the Brewers bullpen in 2018, and the team only improved since last season which means more save opportunities for Knebel.
4. Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Putting Chapman this high on the list is banking on two things from the lefty: playing time and effectiveness. Over the past two seasons, Chapman has missed time due to both suspension and injury and has not been as dominant of a force as in past seasons. 2017 was Chapman's worst season since becoming a full-time closer (3.22 ERA, 12.3 K/9, 3.45 K/BB), which is not saying that much because he was bound to have a down year at some point. Chapman should improve upon his 2017 numbers in 2018, but now that he is 30 years old don't expect him to recapture his sub-2, 15+ K/9 form.
3. Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
Kimbrel, unlike Chapman, had his career-best season in 2017. He put up just 35 saves but that came with an obscene 1.43 ERA, 16.4 K/9, and 0.681 WHIP. The Red Sox should provide Kimbrel more than just 39 save opportunities in 2018 with their improved lineup so look for Kimbrel to add at least 40 saves to his career tally of 291.
2. Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals
This may be one of the boldest predictions on the list, especially considering that Doolittle does not exactly have the best track record with health. The Nationals are going to be beating up on the NL East this season though, so Doolittle will have many chances to work his way up the saves leaderboard. After being traded to Washington last season, Doolittle posted a 2.40 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 21 saves in just 30 innings pitched. He should pretty handily cross the 40-save threshold if he stays healthy. That's a big if, though.
1. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Bo-ring. You don't have to tell me twice. It's just that betting against Jansen would be simply foolish. We're talking about the guy who has averaged 42 saves per year over the past four seasons. And that comes with a career 2.08 ERA, 0.872 WHIP, 14.0 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9. In 2017 he was even more ridiculous than his career numbers; he posted a 1.32 ERA, 0.746 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, and 0.9 BB/9 in 68.1 innings. Jansen may not lead the league in saves in 2018 but he is one of the best closers in baseball on one of the best teams, so he's the best bet.
