Dynasty Team Analysis - Arizona Cardinals

Here at RotoBaller, we are examining all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. We will discuss every franchise leading up to the NFL Draft, then review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the draft. Including which players you should trust, and which players should you avoid. We will also provide our recommendations on sleepers and busts, while exploring every critical position.

David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Carson Palmer provided the nucleus of Arizona's offense entering the 2017 regular season. Johnson was an early Round 1 draft selection after leading PPR leagues in fantasy points during 2016. Fitzgerald entered his 14th season primed to add more receptions and yardage to his lofty career totals. Palmer remained a frequent late-round target despite his QB19 finish in 2016, as owners hoped for a return to his stellar 2015 production (4,671 yards/35 touchdowns). However, only Fitzgerald rewarded those who drafted him. As injuries limited Palmer to seven outings, while Johnson's season was sadly eviscerated in Week 1.

Now, Johnson and Fitzgerald remain entrenched as the most enticing options for a franchise that has been engulfed by an offseason of change. Palmer and former head coach Bruce Arians have been replaced by a quarterback whose history is laden with lingering injuries, and a first-time head coach whose defensive background is vastly different than his offensive minded predecessor. Two NFC West rivals used the offseason to infuse high profile talent onto increasingly formidable rosters, which magnifies the daunting task that confronts General Manager Steve Keim. Who must address Arizona's deficiencies during the upcoming draft, or the Cardinals will fall further behind within the rapidly altering landscape of their division.

Arizona Cardinals Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 8-8 (3rd, NFC West)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Carson Palmer  - 102.4 (QB32)
RB: Adrian Peterson - 78.9 (RB62)
WR: Larry Fitzgerald - 261.4 (WR4)
TE: Jermaine Gresham - 77.2 (TE30)
IDP: Chandler Jones - 230.4 (LB9)

Quarterback

Palmer’s limited stint as signal caller was largely undistinguished (9/7 touchdown to interception ratio), and he ultimately retired in January. That compelled Keim to sign Sam Bradford, even though the former first overall pick (2010) has not played in 16 regular season games since 2012. A knee issue limited Bradford to just two contests last season, while a lengthy succession of other injuries (concussion/shoulder/ankle) have conspired to sideline him for 32 games during his seven seasons.

Bradford’s most productive year occurred in 2016, when he started 15 games for Minnesota. His touchdown to interception ratio (20/5) and yardage total (3,877) were easily the best of his career, while he also led the NFL with a 71.6% completion percentage. But his numbers throughout the remainder of his NFL tenure do not instill confidence in his ability to deliver high quality production. The touchdown to interception ratio outside of 2016 is uninspiring (81/52), and he has not finished within the top 14 in passing yardage since 2010.

Bradford has also been sacked an average of 34 times per season in the five years that he has played in 10+ contests. That combines with his track record of injuries to create legitimate concern that he can remain on the field throughout the upcoming season--particularly if the offensive line does not perform more proficiently, as Pro Football Focus ranked Arizona’s unit 31^st in 2017.

If the Cardinals must operate without Bradford in the lineup, Mike Glennon would elevate into a starting role. Memories of his ill-fated attempt to spearhead Chicago’s attack in 2017 should create uneasiness regarding the debilitating impact that his presence would have on the entire Arizona offense. Even though the team made an investment in Bradford and Glennon for this season, it would be reasonable for Keim to deploy one of his draft picks on a quarterback, with a goal of preparing him for a starting role in 2019.

Running Back

In 2016, David Johnson's 407.8 fantasy points not only led PPR leagues but his 327.8 points in standard leagues placed him fourth overall. His enormous list of achievements included leading the NFL in touchdowns (20) and all-purpose yards (2,118), finishing second in rushing touchdowns (16), and collecting the most targets (120), and receptions (80) among running backs.

But owners who justifiably selected Johnson at the onset of 2017 drafts endured the devastating experience of losing him after just one game due to a wrist injury. His absence caused the Arizona ground game to degenerate significantly, as the Cardinals never re-established any semblance of firepower at the running back position. The rushing attack predictably plunged to a dismal ranking of 30^th, as Adrian Peterson, Andre Ellington Kerwynn Williams, Chris Johnson, Elijhaa Penny and D.J. Foster combined for a league worst 3.4 YPC average, while managing just six touchdowns on the ground.

Johnson’s health is now restored, which will enable the former third-round pick to recapture the team’s feature back role. Penny and Foster are the only two members of last year’s ineffective backfield who escaped being jettisoned from the roster, and will compete with 2017 fifth-round pick T.J. Logan for the miniscule number of touches that are not commandeered by Johnson. The lack of genuine competition increases the likelihood that Johnson will receive a workload which is comparable to the 23.3 touches per game that he averaged in 2016.

That should propel him into a spot among the league leaders in yardage and touchdowns, while he operates as the centerpiece of an attack that is largely devoid of explosive weaponry. It is understandable if the shortcomings of Bradford, and the inadequacies of Arizona’s offensive line trigger concern. But that should not prohibit owners from selecting Johnson within the top five of all formats.

Wide Receiver

Larry Fitzgerald will turn 35 just before Week 1. Yet he remains a trustworthy starter, an outstanding asset in PPR leagues, and a reliable alternative to the higher risk options at his position. He has now amassed 107+ receptions in each of his last three seasons, while averaging 1,131 yards over that span. The steady production continued in 2017, as Fitzgerald finished with the NFL's second-highest reception total (109) after garnering the third most targets (161). He also finished eighth with 1,156 yards, was ninth overall in red zone targets (21), and unsurprisingly led the Cardinals in each category by a substantial margin.

Fitzgerald's dependable output was contrasted by the unpredictability that permeated Arizona's complimentary receivers. No other Cardinal exceeded 31 receptions, while J.J. Nelson was second in yardage with a total that trailed Fitzgerald by a whopping 648 yards (508). The massively fluctuating production of Nelson, Jaron Brown and John Brown also created headaches for anyone who opted to start a member of that inconsistent trio. As Nelson produced at least 80 yards in Weeks 2/5, but could not surpass 39 in 11 other contests.

Nelson only finished at WR70 last season but is currently Arizona’s WR2. After both Browns migrated during free agency (John-Ravens/Jaron-Seahawks). Brice Butler currently occupies the WR3 slot, but the former Cowboy joins Chad Williams in assuming residence beyond the fantasy landscape. Which makes it imperative that the Cardinals inject at least one dynamic weapon into their wide receiving arsenal during the draft.

Tight End

The Cardinal roster does not offer any early or mid-round remedies for owners who want to avoid another season of frustration that results from repeated failure to locate a dependable tight end. However, Ricky Seals-Jones is a worthy late-round investment who could evolve into a serviceable starting option in 2018.

He only played on 132 of Arizona's offensive snaps during his rookie season (11.7%), while receiving 28 targets, and collecting a mere 12 receptions. But he maximized those chances by generating three touchdowns, amassing five receptions of 20+ yards, and averaging 16.8 YPC. The new coaching staff, and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy in particular, will understand the essential need to supply Bradford with additional receiving weapons beyond Fitzgerald. Which could elevate the 6'4", 240-pound converted wide receiver into an expanded role.

It is unlikely that he will be sharing targets with Jermaine Gresham when the season begins, as the eight-year veteran will be recovering from the torn Achilles that he suffered in Week 17. However, Gresham could eventually siphon targets from Seals-Jones. As he finished second to Fitzgerald with 33 receptions last season, while performing on 67% of the snaps (750). Troy Niklas was actually second among Arizona tight ends in snaps (37%/417), but his exodus to New England makes Seals-Jones' path to relevancy more accessible.

IDP

There were favorable storylines within the Cardinal defense last season, as Arizona ranked sixth in total defense and also against the run. Chandler Jones also led the NFL with 17 sacks, while Patrick Peterson supplied another season of smothering coverage. The aggressive approach of new head coach Steve Wilks could be advantageous for a unit that has become the strength of the team. But his decision to transition from the 3-4 approach that has been employed by the Cardinals to a 4-3 defense will have ramifications.

It will affect the frequency with which Jones functions as a stand-up rusher, Markus Golden should also convert to defensive end, and 2017 first round pick Haason Reddick will be among the cluster of other linebackers that will be impacted. Wilks displayed the propensity to blitz during his one-year stint as Carolina’s defensive coordinator, and the Panthers registered the third most sacks (50). His approach could benefit a Cardinal unit that was heavily reliant upon Jones in order to reach their 2017 season total (37).

Prior to his ascension into the coordinator position, Wilks coached defensive backs for three different franchises under Ron Rivera (Bears/Chargers/Panthers). He inherits a secondary that should receive another year of stellar play from Peterson. While second-year strong safety Budda Baker and free safety Antoine Bethea will return after Bethea led the team in interceptions (5). But the cornerback position beyond Peterson remains a major deficiency entering the draft.

Offseason Outlook

2018 Draft Picks: 1st Round (15), 2nd Round (47), 3rd Round (79), 3rd Round (97), 4th Round (134), 5th Round (152), 7th Round (254) 

Team Needs: WR, CB, QB, OT 

While Johnson and Fitzgerald should once again deliver highly productive seasons for both Arizona and fantasy owners, there are clear areas of need for a team that is already undergoing significant change under center and on the sidelines. A quarterback with career-long mobility issues is being asked to spearhead an attack that contains only one proven back, and one wide receiver that poses a significant threat to opposing defenses. He will also work behind an injury plagued offensive line that yielded the second most pressures among all teams (217) last season.

Left tackle D.J. Humphries (knee) and left guard Mike Iupati (triceps) missed a combined 26 games, yet the Cardinals are dependent on them to function as starters. A.Q. Shipley will return at center, but the right side has been revamped via free agency. Even though former Giant Justin Pugh and veteran tackle Andre Smith were also sidelined by injuries in 2017.  This unit largely lacks depth beyond Evan Boehm, and should be reinforced. Otherwise, the situation could become extremely problematic if health issues reemerge.

However, Keim must also locate a long-term solution at quarterback, a legitimate WR2, and several cornerbacks to compete at a position that is under-equipped to neutralize opposing passing attacks. These glaring shortcomings become even more concerning considering the herculean task that awaits the Cardinals as they attempt to compete with the ascending Rams and 49ers. Making it critical for Keim to use his draft picks effectively.

More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy