Max Kepler (OF, MIN) - Waiver Wire Pickups

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ANALYSIS: Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler has (very) quietly had a nice start to the season, and the metrics suggest a big breakout could be coming. Granted, he has only registered 27 at-bats up until this point, but the eye test shows that he’s controlling the strike zone much better than at any point last season. Right now, Kepler’s walked five times versus one strikeout. He is hitting for more power, and has been a little unlucky on his way to a .273/.407/.500 so far. That’s not just good or above average, it’s elite and good for a 161 wRC+.

Kepler was a popular breakout target in 2017, but was a disappointment with a line of .243/.312/.425 and 19 homers. His biggest problem was, basically, anything involving left-handed pitching. Against righties, he was a slightly above average hitter with .272/.343/.484 and just a 17.2% K rate. Of those 19 dingers, 17 were from against right-handers, and his ISO of .212 vs. 0.88 against lefties is as clear a picture as it gets.

Kepler has held his own against lefties in 2018 better than at any point in his career. But fantasy owners don’t need him to be a lefty masher, just show a little more competence and get to his power against southpaws a little more often. If he can be close to league average and maintain his ratios against righties, he’s an easy top-30 OF. In the event that the 25-year-old has not actually made improvements against lefties and this is just a hot streak, Kepler is still a very effective platoon option for fantasy owners.