Dynasty Team Analysis - Washington Redskins

Here at RotoBaller, we are examining all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. We will discuss every franchise leading up to the NFL Draft, then review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the draft. Including which players you should trust, and which players should you avoid. We will also provide our recommendations on sleepers and busts, while exploring every critical position.

Washington’s 2017 season was a disappointment, as the Redskins endured their first losing record since 2014, while perpetuating a decline that has been in progress since they captured the NFC East crown in 2015.  Kirk Cousins did construct a third consecutive highly productive season, despite being forced to contend with the exodus of his two most prolific wide receivers, and a sizable assortment of injuries to critical personnel throughout the year. The relentless drama that surrounded his contract situation also provided another unnecessary layer of off-field tension to the season. As Washington's ongoing failure to secure him with a long-term deal finally culminated with his departure from the team.

Now, the Redskins move forward with a new quarterback, undeniable questions at running back, wide receiver and tight end, and the essential need to upgrade their talent level at multiple positions defensively. Redskins President Bruce Allen has stated that Senior Vice President of Player Personnel Doug Williams and head coach Jay Gruden will join him in making choices regarding the roster, although recent history has proven that Allen is clearly the ultimate decision maker. The Redskins will have eight selections during the rapidly approaching NFL Draft, which presents an opportunity to address distinct weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

Washington Redskins Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 7-9 (3rd NFC East)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: Kirk Cousins - 277.6 (QB6)
RB: Chris Thompson - 151.4 (RB28)
WR: Jamison Crowder - 160.3 (WR33)
TE:  Vernon Davis - 121.8 (TE16)
IDP: Zach Brown - 213.9 (LB12)

Quarterback

Cousins played in just 14 games during his first three seasons as a Redskin (2012-2014), but spearheaded the offense in every regular season contest from 2015 to 2017. During that sequence he averaged 4,392 yards, while assembling an 81:36 touchdown to interception ratio. He also finished seventh with 4,093 yards in 2017, and was eighth with 27 touchdowns. Cousins also amassed a career best 179 yards as a rusher, but the lingering contract standoff ultimately ended with his migration to Minnesota.

Once his departure appeared inevitable, the Redskins hastened a new era for the franchise by acquiring Alex Smith. Who finished one spot behind Cousins in both yardage (4,042), and touchdowns (26). Smith’s 2017 numbers were easily the best of his 12 professional seasons. As he surpassed his previous high in yardage by over 500 yards (540), while building an outstanding 26:5 touchdown to interception ratio. While his numbers were steady during his previous four seasons as a Chief, they were also uninspiring. As he averaged 3,391 yards, and 19 touchdowns, which resulted in fantasy point totals from 2013-2016 that were vastly different from the impressive QB4 finish that he managed last year (QB13/QB19/QB15/QB22).

Interceptions should not be a concern, as he averaged just 6.6 per season with Kansas City. But his conservative nature had traditionally discouraged owners from trusting him as a weekly starter until last season. The 33-year old Smith’s career-long  resume makes it difficult to believe that Washington's attack will become more intimidating for opponents than it was with Cousins under center. Or that owners can invest in the team's offensive resources with the same level of passion that they would have previously. As the statistical limitations that often result from Smith’s reluctance to stray from his comfort zone will keep him lodged in QB2 territory.

Running Back

The inopportune combination of injuries and disappointing performances disrupted the team's ability to sustain an effective ground game in 2017. As eight different backs were deployed during a season that eventually produced a dismal ranking of 28th, and an underwhelming YPC average of just 3.6. Which was nearly a full yard less than they manufactured in 2016 (4.5).

Samaje Perine led the Redskins with 603 yards. However, he did not seize the opportunity to establish himself as the team's RB1 during his unimpressive rookie year. As he averaged just 3.4 YPC, while failing to exceed 2.6 in five different contests. 2016 rushing leader Rob Kelley was even less effective (3.1). Although he battled multiple injuries (knee/rib/ankle) while being limited to just seven games.

Chris Thompson was stockpiling yardage amid the best season of his career, before a broken fibula sidelined him for Washington’s final six contests. He still assembled career highs in total yards (804), receiving yards (510), and receiving touchdowns (4), and was also on pace to garner 96 targets if he had performed in 16 games. Only 17 backs surpassed Thompson's total of 54 despite his condensed season, and he was just 63 yards away from establishing a new career high in rushing when the injury occurred.

Thompson is currently the lone runner who can supply big plays, and his ability to ignite the attack will keep him cemented as Washington’s third down back. But it would be surprising if the Redskins failed to add a more dynamic alternative to Perine and Kelley during the impending draft.

Wide Receiver

The Redskins finished 2016 with the NFL's second ranked passing attack (297 YPG), as Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson combined for 2,046 yards, 135 receptions and seven touchdowns. But after that tandem departed via free agency, no receivers completely filled the resulting void, and Washington's average dropped by 63 yards per game (234).

Terrelle Pryor had been a prominent addition to the roster, following his 2016 emergence as a wide receiver (77 receptions 1,007 yards). This led to heightened anticipation that he would flourish with the Redskins, while absorbing a sizable percentage of the 216 targets that Garcon and Jackson had commandeered previously. Unfortunately for anyone who invested in Pryor during the early portion of their drafts, the disastrous results of his lone season with the team included a massively disappointing 20 catches for 240 yards.

Instead, it was Jamison Crowder who led the Redskins in targets (104), receptions (66) and receiving yards (789). Although those numbers failed to match his output from 2016 (67 receptions/849 yards/7 touchdowns). Crowder is entering the final year of his rookie contract, and there has been speculation that Washington will draft his eventual replacement to operate in the slot. However, he has proven to be a reliable option, and should continue functioning inside while Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson occupy the perimeter.

Doctson was a popular roster stash as the season progressed, in hopes that the former first-round pick would catapult fantasy teams into the postseason with the same fluid nature that he runs his routes. But he attained a 50% snap count only once before Week 9, was limited to three catches or less in 13 games, and only exceeded 61 yards once. The 6'2" Doctson did lead the Redskins with 15 red zone targets, and his ability to confiscate jump balls provides the potential for improved production. Depending upon Smith’s willingness to launch throws that will clearly be contested.

Richardson entered 2017 with undistinguished career numbers after his first three seasons (51 receptions/599 yards/2 touchdowns). However, his output skyrocketed (44 receptions/703 yards/6 touchdowns), after he finished third among all Seahawks with 80 targets.

That matched his career total prior to last season, while his snap count (76.4%) easily surpassed his previous high (47%). Last year's snap count is very attainable, but it is questionable that he will be targeted with the same frequency. Due to the intangibles that will exist with his new quarterback, and competition from Washington's surplus of receiving options.

Tight End

Jordan Reed's history of prolonged absence due to stubborn injuries has been well-documented. He has yet to successfully navigate through an entire 16-game season, while missing 28 games during his five-year career. In 2015-2016, he still assembled noteworthy numbers despite being sidelined for six contests (153 receptions/1,638 yards/17 touchdowns). While his career best output in 2015 (87 receptions/952 yards/11 touchdowns) persuaded some optimistic owners to pursue similar production by investing an early round pick on Reed. Unfortunately, their reward consisted of agonizingly meager numbers (27 receptions/211 yards/2 touchdowns), as Reed only played in six games (chest/hamstring).

Owners have been more skeptical in 2018 as Reed's ADP has dropped appreciably. While this reduces the risk of drafting him, you should only do so after another tight end is securely on your roster. He remains capable of generating excellent numbers at a position where that is a rarity, but that is not something that you should depend on.

If Reed is reduced to the role of spectator yet again, that could elevate 34-year old Vernon Davis into sustained relevance during a reunion with Smith. The duo combined on 229 passes and 30 touchdowns when they played for San Francisco (2006-2012), and Smith should not be hesitant to rely upon his former teammate once again.  It also bodes well for Davis that Smith launched more targets to his tight ends than any other quarterback last season.

Davis has already procured the highest snap count among Washington tight ends during each of his two seasons with the team (79%/63%), and finished second on the Redskins in targets (69) and receiving yards (648) in 2017. He is a legitimate late-round option for owners, and can provide respectable numbers if Reed is unavailable. The disclaimer to this strategy would be the possibility that Allen will select a tight end during the draft process. Due to Davis' age, Reed's health challenges, and the departure of Niles Paul.

IDP

Washington's deficient run defense must be addressed after the Redskins ranked dead last in that category (134.1 YPG). Only three teams yielded a greater YPC average (4.5), while they also surrendered the fourth most fantasy points to opposing rushers (20.9 PPG). Fortunately, the team can utilize their draft picks to infuse a run stuffing presence into several areas within the front seven.

The tackle position could easily be fortified with the team’s first round pick, which would enable the Redskins to deploy their initial selection alongside last year’s first rounder Jonathan Allen.  Who was impressive before a Lisfranc injury limited him to just five contests. He is joined at defensive end by Matt Ioannidis, who improved substantially during his second season.

Inside linebacker Zach Brown became a vital contributor in his first year with the Redskins. As he led the team with 127 tackles, despite missing three games with a shin issue. He is flanked outside by team sack leader Ryan Kerrigan (13), and Preston Smith. Who could face competition from a newcomer after the draft.

The secondary is spearheaded by cornerback Josh Norman and free safety D.J. Swearinger. Otherwise, a talent boost would be advisable throughout the remaining backfield. New slot cornerback Orlando Scandrick is a sizable downgrade from Kendall Fuller, who was traded during the transaction for Smith. Bashaud Breeland’s departure also leaves the Redskins lacking on the perimeter, and an upgrade beyond incumbent strong safeties Deshazor Everett and Montae Nicholson would be beneficial.

Offseason Outlook

2018 Draft Picks: 1st Round (13), 2nd Round (44), 4th Round (109), 5th Round (142), 5th Round (163), 6^th Round (205), 7^th Round (231), (7^th Round (241) 

Team Needs: RB, DE, DT, S, CB

Washington's offensive line was ranked 21st by Pro Football Focus in 2017, after surrendering 181 pressures. Former first-round picks Brandon Scherff and Trent Williams are easily the unit's most capable performers. Scherff is a two-time Pro Bowler who is among the league’s most proficient right guards. While Williams has been effective at left tackle when he can remain on the field. As he has now been sidelined for 12 games in the last three seasons, including six in 2017 due to a lingering knee issue. Their status as preeminent starters remains unquestioned, while center Chase Roullier and right tackle Morgan Moses will likely retain their starting roles. But the Redskins could easily address left guard  during the draft.

However, that will depend upon where Allen prioritizes that need. As he must also consider the current shortcomings that reside at running back, age and injury concerns at tight end, plus the cluster of positions that should be bolstered defensively.

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