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We continue our RotoBaller series using Statcast to extrapolate, dig into, and commiserate over data to examine pitching performances. The weekly series will be dynamic as we fine-tune our findings and I enlighten myself on the information and tools at my disposal.
My predictive confidence face-planted over the weekend as two of my calls in last week's edition malevolently defied my wishes. After predicting BABIP indicators suggested a near-term speed bump for Sean Manaea, he achieved 2018's first no-hitter. Upon guessing Sonny Gray was in for better days, the Blue Jays obliterated him. Fortunately, it's a fresh week and a chance to turn a new leaf. Like closers, we fantasy pundits must be blessed with poor short-term memories.
This week we'll look at Exit Velocity (EV), another Statcast term that's entered the colloquial chatters of baseball. Most analysis concludes hitters have disproportionate influence over EV, leading to the proliferation of advanced stats like FIP and BABIP. But we're here to talk pitchers, and a study by Fangraphs suggests there are some links between EV, FIP and ERA. There is also a subtle 0.46 correlation between a pitcher's EV year-over-year. Based on this limited evidence, we have the subjective freedom to indulge on future pitching outcomes by gauging early EV results.
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Bullish Signals
The thesis this week is looking at guys with unusual EV trends and diagnosing if it may be too high or too low.
All stats as of April 23, 2018
J.A. Happ (3-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP)
Amongst pitchers who have thrown over 300 pitches, J.A. Happ ranks seventh out of 120 in highest EV. At 91.9 MPH, Happ is trending over four MPH higher than his average since 2015. Batted-ball metrics support this fact. Happ's 32.1% Hard% is ahead of his career pace and the prevailing 27.8% HR/FB is second in the majors. Of his four appearances, he's logged only one quality start despite three wins. Fortunately, for geriatrics like Happ, we have ample data to determine if the early-season trials are justified.
Since 2008, Happ's HR/FB has never surpassed 12.3%, so the present astronomical figure will come down. Happ's velocity has been stable from last year and the pitch variable appears to be his slider. While batters are whiffing on about 14% of his sliders, they are crushing it upon contact with an ISO over .400. For his career, Happ's FIP (4.12) and xFIP (4.18) are nearly identical so the existing 4.66 FIP and 2.95 xFIP differential speak to the abnormal results so far.
Happ's K/9 in 2018 is a stellar 12.68 and he's been a solid pitcher since 2014. Analysis suggests it only takes a 1-2 MPH change in EV to make a significant impact on BABIP and BAA. Given Happ's track record, the recent anomalies should self-correct over a full season. Unfortunately, he has a tough test against the Red Sox coming up at home.
Robbie Ray (2-0, 4.98 ERA, 1.52 WHIP)
The knock on Robbie Ray's breakout last year was luck. Despite leading the majors in Hard% (40.4%) in 2017, he carried a below-average BABIP (.267). This year, hitters have continued hammering Ray to the tune of a 50.0% Hard% and last year's fortunes are nowhere to be found. Ray's 91.8 MPH EV sits behind Happ at ninth highest. If Ray could just get his EV down to last year's 89.1 MPH, we could live with that.
Ray has mixed in two decent performances with two rough outings. One constant thus far is the strikeout rate, which ties for tops in the majors at 13.29. Another not-so-impressive consistency has been his wildness. Ray's walked at least three batters in each start and even with the punch-outs, his K/BB (2.29) grades 61st overall. Intuitively, when a pitcher can't locate the strikezone, he ends up throwing meatballs; Ray's HR/FB sits at an elevated 23.8%.
Ray's control has never been a strength, so at least it's encouraging the current 5.82 BB/9 is way above a 3.78 career mark. His fastball velocity is also down, which may be alarming or just a matter of seasonality. Ray's next start comes in Philadelphia, and a normalization of the walk-rate would pair irresistibly to his tantalizing swing-and-miss appeal. Just please, easy on the meatballs.
Other possible overachievers: Marcus Stroman (TOR, 94.2 MPH EV), Jose Quintana (CHC, 91.7 MPH), Kevin Gausman (91.2 MPH)
Bearish Flags
Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-0, 1.99 ERA, 0.88 WHIP)
Hyun-Jin Ryu ranks seventh best in lowest EV at 84.9 MPH. Supportively, Ryu's been mostly fantastic this season, accentuated by a two-hit gem against the Nationals on April 21 (W, 7.0 IP, 3 BB, 8 K). Ryu's kept hitters off-balanced, combining a two and four-seamer with a reinvigorated changeup that's registered a strong 3.48 pitch value and 24% whiff-rate. He's on pace for the best K/9 (10.72) in his five-year career.
Irrespective of the Bartolo Colon-esque likenesses, Ryu's been a successful major league pitcher. Aside from missing 2015-2016 to injury, his career ERA (3.34) and FIP (3.43) have been steady on a yearly basis. 2018's dubious revelation is currently embedded in a .200 BABIP and 5.9% HR/FB. These characteristics have links with the soft EV, but there are some caution flags. Considering the randomness of LD%, Ryu's 13.7% this season is objectively low and well beneath his career 20.9%. Ryu is an average fly ball pitcher and has never given up many homeruns, but MLB's lowest HR/FB in 2017 (Andrew Cashner, 8.6%) is a few points higher than Ryu's level.
Nothing suggests Ryu can't continue being a reliable arm this season, but the present ace-like qualities might be tested. Ryu's next outing comes in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park visiting the San Francisco Giants.
Rick Porcello (4-0, 1.40 ERA, 0.82 WHIP)
Rick Porcello has won every start and pitched spectacularly in 2018. He might have folks wondering if 2017 was really a fluky post-Cy Young hangover instead of the other way around. Porcello is tenth in lowest EV at 85.5 MPH in 2018. He's parlayed the weak EV to a 14th-best Hard% and no homeruns allowed. At the least, he appears to have last year's disappointing season in the rearview mirror.
Compared to 2016's Cy Young form, Porcello's K/9 (8.06), xFIP (3.32), Contact% (82.4%) and SwStr% (8.9%) are in-line or better. However, Porcello averaged an EV of 87.8 MPH in 2016. He has an identical 13.7% LD% to Ryu which appears equally fortuitous and could explain a large portion of this year's lower EV. Additionally, the 0.0% HR/FB is unsustainable. Porcello's strand rate (82.6%) and BB/9 (0.35) are markedly better than his long-run norms, so the remainder of 2018 will determine whether this attributes to luck.
Ultimately, Porcello has an accomplished resume and his ERA appears safe at the career FIP of 3.99, but still a major leap from the current 1.71. He also has the benefit of a high-octane Red Sox offense to support win opportunities. Boston visits Toronto this week, the Blue Jays will attempt to be Porcello's first legitimate challenge.
Other potential underachievers: Jose Berrios (MIN, 80.9 MPH EV), Mike Clevinger (CLE, 85.2 MPH), Tanner Roark (WAS, 85.5 MPH)
