RADIO
Sunday brings us a big 12 game slate with a wealth of options at the plate and on the mound. This article will focus only on the featured slate, as that is where most contests will take place.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/29/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @ElliottBaasBB.
DraftKings Starting Pitchers
Jose Berrios, MIN (vs. CIN) $11,900
Berrios is the second most expensive pitcher on the slate after Gerrit Cole ($12,600 vs. OAK), but he has a much easier matchup compared to Cole. Berrios takes on the Cincinnati Reds, who have a .292 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Cole’s opponent, the Oakland Athletics, have a .353 wOBA as a team against righties. We’re not necessarily scared of Cole against Oakland, but the Athletics have been surprisingly good while the Reds are among the worst teams in baseball. Neither would be a bad play, but Berrios has been nearly as dominant as Cole. He currently has a career high 30% strikeout rate and 11.3% swinging strike rate. He also has an incredible 31.3% soft contact rate this season thanks to his curveball. He’s a good bet to put up a big start.
J.A. Happ, TOR (vs. TEX) $9,200
DraftKings may not believe in J.A. Happ’s newfound success, but you should. With a 33.6% strikeout rate Happ is fifth among qualified starters. As of writing this, Happ has a better strikeout rate than Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard. Happ has also cut his walk rate to 5.7%, giving him career bests in two of the three true outcomes. Happ has done it by elevating his four-seam fastball and keeping the ball up in or above the strike zone. Here is a side-by-side look at his career fourseam heatmaps to righties (left) versus 2018 (right).
It’s tough for right-handers to drive or even make contact with fastballs in that location. He probably won’t maintain such a high strikeout rate over the course of the season, but there is little reason to think it’ll stop against the Rangers. The Rangers have a .289 wOBA as team against lefties, and they are without Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor, and Elvis Andrus. Happ also holds platoon advantage over their best remaining hitters, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, and Shin-Soo Choo. Happ works either as a high-end SP2 alongside Berrios or as a cheap SP1.
Kevin Gausman, BAL (vs. DET) $6,800
Earlier this season I wrote about how Gausman could follow in teammate Dylan Bundy’s footsteps and become dominant, and he is underpriced in this matchup. A disaster first start against the Twins have ruined Gausman’s overall stat line, but he’s put up double digit DraftKings point performances in his last three starts. Gausman is a high risk/high reward play, as he is always in danger of a blow up, but when he’s on he can be downright filthy. His velocity was back at normal levels in his last start and he had 13 swinging strikes while throwing his splitter 26% of the time. That is everything we want to see in Gausman, and if that guy shows up we’ve got a huge bargain on our hands. He’s a better GPP option, but he works in cash games too.
DraftKings Infielders
C – Salvador Perez, KC (vs. CWS) - $3,300
Salvy gets a juicy matchup against journeyman Chris Volstad. Volstad has a career 4.90 ERA, 4.63 FIP, and 1.80 K/BB ratio. Those are the marks of a bad pitcher. Perez’s price seems a little depressed since he missed nearly a month and is hitting just .222 since his return, but he has consistently been a top tier offensive catcher. He had a .227 ISO and 27 home runs last season, making him one of the best power-hitting catchers in the league.
1B – Justin Smoak, TOR (vs. TEX) - $3,500
If you looked up slumpbuster in the dictionary you wouldn’t find it, because it’s not a word. If it were a word, you’d see a picture of Rangers starter Martin Perez watching another baseball leave the yard. Perez has a 1.96 HR/9 so far this season as well as a 9.82 ERA, 6.45 FIP, and 1.38 K/BB. Smoak has gotten off to somewhat of a poor start, but he’s still crushing lefties. He has a .405 average and .441 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season after having a .331 average and .412 wOBA against southpaws last season. He’s a great value play against an awful, awful pitcher.
2B – Robinson Cano, SEA (@ CLE) - $3,900
Speaking of awful pitchers, Cano takes on Indians righty Josh Tomlin on Sunday. Tomlin is coming off a shelling against the Cubs where he allowed four home runs. Remarkably, it was already the second start (out of three) that he’s allowed four home runs this season. Tomlin’s 9.24 ERA is obviously bad, but in a feat only the worst of the worst can achieve Tomlin’s FIP is even higher at 11.46. Even if he won’t sustain a 5.68 HR/9 over the course of the season, Tomlin has a 1.61 HR/9 for his career. All Mariners are in play against him, and Cano is a great option at the keystone. He has a .382 wOBA thus far this season and a career high 47.1% hard contact rate. He shouldn’t be this cheap in such a favorable matchup.
3B – Mike Moustakas, KC (vs. CWS) - $4,200
Moose gets to take on Chris Volstad, who has a career 5.27 FIP and 1.48 HR/9 against lefties. Moustakas has been one of the best hitters in the majors so far this year, with eight home runs, a .311 ISO, and a .402 wOBA through 107 plate appearances. This is a dream matchup for the slugging third baseman.
SS – Manny Machado, BAL (vs. DET) - $5,200
Machado has hit six home runs over his last eight games, including two double homer games during that stretch. He has a .337 ISO, .472 wOBA, and nine home runs through his first 116 plate appearances. He takes on lefty Daniel Norris, who has a 4.85 ERA and 2.29 K/BB ratio this season. This is the one big star to pay up for today.
DraftKings Outfielders
OF – Nelson Cruz, SEA (@ CLE) - $4,000
It’s hard to understand how Nelson Cruz is so cheap against Josh Tomlin, but here he is at $4,000 against a pitcher that has surrendered eight home runs in 12.1 innings. Cruz missed a little time with an ankle injury, but the power hasn’t slowed down when he’s played. Cruz has a .266 ISO and four home runs in 66 plate appearances. Those power numbers align with what he’s done over his time with the Mariners. Were he $1,000 more Cruz would still be in consideration, but for $4,000 this is a no-brainer.
OF – Steve Pearce, TOR (vs. TEX) - $3,200
Steve Pearce was born for matchups like this. He gets to take on Martin Perez, one of the weakest left-handed starters in the majors. Pearce has a .361 wOBA and .227 ISO against lefties all time and has been even better against southpaws this season. Pearce has a .415 wOBA and .375 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2018. Given that his price never fluctuates regardless of handedness he’s pretty much an auto-play when facing a lefty.
OF – Trey Mancini, BAL (vs. DET) - $3,700
Most of Mancini’s struggles have come against right-handers this season, he has still mashed lefties thus far in 2018. Mancini has a .387 wOBA and .179 ISO against left-handers this year. He’s been hitting leadoff for the Orioles and pairs nicely with Manny Machado.
