Miles Mikolas (SP, STL) - Week 5 Waiver Wire Pickups

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OWNED IN: 53% of leagues

ANALYSIS: During draft season, Miles Mikolas was written off by most in the industry, other than being used as a streaming option, or at best an SP5. So far? Mikolas looks like a must-own if the fast start continues. Through 33 innings, Mikolas has three wins, a 3.19 FIP, and is only walking 0.55 BB/9. What is unusual is that he is also giving up 1.36 HR/9. By putting fewer runners on base via the free pass, those home runs are not driving down an overall effective starting pitching performance.

Moving forward what should owners expect from the Cardinals starter? A 76.9 LOB% should not hint at much regression, meaning that this looks like a start based on skills as opposed to situational mechanics. Why might this be the case? Mikolas is throwing fewer fastballs than previous stints in the majors, with a dramatic increase in his curveball usage. In 2014, the last season he pitched in the Majors before jumping overseas, Mikolas threw 11.7% curveballs. This season? 23.9%. Walk rate in 2014? 2.83 BB/9. Is the curveball the only reason that this profile has changed Perhaps not, but until hitters adjust Mikolas will take advantage.  Small changes leading to fewer free passes mean benefits for fantasy owners in ratios and possibly wins.