Is Jameson Taillon an Ace in Fantasy Leagues?

I'll begin this article with a bit of a precursor: I'm a huge Pirates fan. However, I do like to think that I'm a realistic Pirates fan. One who just dropped Ivan Nova in the RotoBaller Expert League despite two good outings in a row.

Point being, I don't typically hold on to or vouch for players just because they are on my favorite team. So, while some might view a Pirates fan's perspective on Jameson Taillon as tainted or biased, I like to think of it as educated instead.

With that out of the way, let's get to the question at hand for fantasy baseball owners who are either looking at Taillon on their rosters or looking to possibly trade for him at a low-value point: Is Jameson Taillon an ace?

Ace in the Making or Fool's Gold?

"Ace" is a pretty vague term for a starting pitcher in regards to his fantasy baseball status. I guess a few things that usually symbolize ace-hood for my pitchers in a 5x5 Roto league would be:

1. Matchup proof
2. Averaging around one strikeout per inning or more
3. Consistently helping your team in ERA and WHIP (outside of maybe a blemish or two)
4. Your pitching staff would take a sizable hit if he were to get injured

 
Obviously there is more that goes into an ace than just those things, and we could sit here and argue about semantics until the Pirates win another World Series, but those are some baseline thoughts to get us moving in the right direction.

After solidifying his rightful place in the Pirates' rotation last season, Taillon showed flashes of brilliance, faced some pretty bad luck at times (.352 BABIP in 2017), and dealt with testicular cancer all the while. So, with the craziness of the 2017 season behind him, I was excited to see him settle into an SP1 role in Pittsburgh this season both for personal and fantasy purposes.

Needless to say, J-Mo did not disappoint in his first three starts, allowing just nine hits, five walks, and two runs through 20.1 innings while striking out 18 batters. The next two starts brought him crashing back down to Earth, as he failed to reach the fourth inning against the Phillies and the Tigers while ballooning his once-sparkling ERA all the way up to 4.91. While that did make me a little nervous, I hadn't lost faith, and I knew a road test against the dangerous Nationals offense on Monday would give us some more answers about what kind of pitcher we can expect Taillon to be this season.

So, with ears perked a bit and my tail slightly between my legs, I watched Taillon pitch fairly well, but not great, in Monday's start in the nation's capital. He notched a quality start, going six innings and striking out five batters while allowing three earned runs on seven hits and two walks. Fine, but not great.

Now it's officially May. We have six starts of Taillon, and it seems like we're getting a few different versions of him. Unfortunately, it doesn't do anyone any good if I pretend to know what's coming next. However, what I can do that may be slightly helpful is to take a micro approach to find what the Pirates pitcher is doing well and what falls apart at times to see what is more likely going forward: Good Taillon or Bad Taillon.

The Two Faces of Taillon

One thing that has stood out for Good Taillon is that he is able to get called third strikes. Craig Edwards' FanGraphs article from a few weeks back does a pretty good job explaining J-Mo's above-average called third strike percentage. It's pretty easy to see the ace-like nature of Taillon when he's getting called third strikes, because the swinging strikes will always be there too. He has really good velocity on his four-seam fastball, and he has one of the most deadly curveballs in the league. Even in a sub-par, six-inning start against the Nationals, Taillon was able to rack up 10 swinging strikes, and a good chunk of them came against the dangerous lefty Bryce Harper. If Taillon can miss bats while also painting corners effectively, he's well on his way to reaching ace status.

Another aspect of Taillon's pitching that has stood out so far this season, especially in his most recent start, is the correlation between first pitch strikes and keeping runners off base. Just by simply reviewing all 26 of his batters faced on Monday, I found out that Taillon retired 10 batters when he was able to throw his first pitch for a strike. On the other hand, when the first pitch was a ball, seven of those batters went on to reach base (just nine batters reached all game). So, only two batters reached against Taillon by putting the first pitch in play or fighting back from an 0-1 count. The first pitch strike advantage is obviously not exclusive to Taillon, but this is just a small sample of how dangerous of a pitcher he can be when he's ahead in the count and how mediocre he can appear when he's working from behind.

One last factor from Monday's start that supports my Taillon conclusion was a bit of bad luck. Of the seven hits that Taillon allowed, four of them were ground balls. Meanwhile, he allowed just two fly balls in the contest, and neither one went for a hit. He continues to be an effective ground ball pitcher, and J-Mo will rarely let up multiple home runs in a contest, if he lets one up at all. This is just another reason why I'm willing to predict Good Taillon for the future rather than Bad Taillon. Keeping last year's BABIP number in mind and considering the small sample size so far this season, we've yet to see a really lucky Taillon, and I'm excited for that.

Again, there's little value in claiming to know exactly what's coming for this young starting pitcher. However, if there is a time to buy low on a possible ace in Jameson Taillon, now is that time. The question is, is Taillon an ace or will he continue to have flashes of brilliance meshed with mediocrity? My stance is that Good Taillon will win out, and we'll continue to see high-strikeout, low earned run starts like the ones we saw in early April. If you have Taillon, there's no way I would trade him. If you're looking for a pitcher who has the upside to be a top-10 SP going forward, he's on the short list of attainable assets that I would compile. So I suppose the answer is yes, I believe Jameson Taillon is an ace.

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