A Tale of Two Pitching Prospects - Bieber and Plutko

There has not been much for Cleveland fans to celebrate so far this year, which means most of the short-term attention has shifted to the minors and the next wave of prospects.  This article will look to feature two of the more exciting names: Adam Plutko and Shane Bieber.

Changes are coming to the Cleveland rotation with Danny Salazar’s inability to get healthy, and Josh Tomlin’s failure to keeps balls in the yard. These names will top the list of options from the minors. As Tom Hamilton said on the last broadcast, " it's only a short Uber ride up from Columbus."  Plutko has already been up once this year and should be back before long. Bieber started the year off well at AA Akron to gain promotion to AAA Columbus and has not slowed down yet.  

For owners who play in deep dynasty leagues, or AL-only leagues with minor league slots, make sure to keep these players on radars or watchlists. While perhaps a bit of hometown bias in this focus, Cleveland has a knack for producing pitching that others have not. Not to say that Plutko or Bieber are Corey Kluber, but this is the type of profile that seems to thrive at Progressive Field.   

Cleveland Pitching Prospects to Watch

Adam Plutko

Plutko is a name known to most Cleveland fans, but never with much national or even prospect attention. Heading into 2016 he featured on the “other prospects” sections of Fangraphs’ write-up and had not appeared in MLB Pipeline over the past few seasons. Still, a strong start in the majors bodes well for some increased attention. Plutko did appear with the big league club for a cup of espresso in 2016 over two games and 3.2 innings without much fanfare. This season he was called up to make a spot start against Toronto going 7.1 strong innings giving up three earned runs, striking out six, and walking none.

Encouraging for the team is that the 2018 version of Plutko is his strongest to date and reflect both a small change in approach coupled with some better luck.  At Triple-A over 2016 and 2017 Plutko made 39 starts winning thirteen. Over those same seasons, he averaged 6.7 K/9 and 3.45 BB/9. This season at Triple-A? Through five starts: three wins, 7.34 K/9, and 2.05 BB/9.  Small sample size perhaps but those are the most significant changes in a career where the numbers tended to look more like 2016/17 Plutko than this year’s version. To add to this change has been the BABIP profile.  In 16-17 the average number was .306. This season? Down to .183.

The other significant changes have been the decrease in Pull%.  In 2016 and 2017 the opposition was pulling his pitches 43.15% of the time.  This year? Down to 29.4%. Plutko is either keeping the ball away to hitters or has added enough velocity to take the pull-side approach away from hitters. A decrease in HR/FB down to 6.4% seems to the payoff. If these numbers continue, Plutko is a relatively unknown starter with the profile that could at worst make him worth the gamble, and at best looks to the next coming of Jake Westbrook.     

Shane Bieber

Drafted in the fourth round of 2016, Bieber has made a quick jump up the ladder within the Cleveland system.  Currently, MLB Pipeline has him listed as the eight best prospect in the system. The constant for Bieber has been the walk rate and overall control.  In some ways he makes Tomlin look wild. Up until his most recent promotion, Bieber had never allowed more than 0.8 BB/9 in his minor league career. Even better - how about a K/9 that sits between eight and nine?  When he was drafted Bieber was known as a command guy without the swing and miss, but over the past few seasons, the fastball has moved to the low 90s sitting 91-94 according to MLB.com.

While owners should always be a bit skeptical of minor league numbers concerning drawing long-term predictions, another critical factor that stands out is the HR/9 rate.  Bieber’s worst number came in 2017 at high-A where he allowed .50 HR/9. Even some increase with the different ball in the majors makes this a valuable profile to keep on the radar.  With the BB profile, even if there is a jump in homers, it is not like there will be runners on base to cause damage.

The unusual part of the profile is that Bieber has seen his opponents batting average drop each year as he progressed through the minors.  In 2017 through 2018 here are the batting averages: .283, .270, .262, .215, .209. An encouraging trend to say the least. Still, only 22 Bieber is young for his level and has gotten better as he goes along.  When was he drafted the comparison was to Tomlin, now? More upside, and perhaps someday the comparison will be that Bieber is a rich man’s, Josh Tomlin.

Looking forward

Both Plutko and Bieber are newish names to the fantasy community, and while perhaps limited with their ceiling, they offer good floors that should excite owners.  This year has seen many rookie pitchers make big jumps when they got to the majors, and perhaps these are the next to make that step. At the very least, a decent team with a strong bullpen make these excellent streaming options if and when they appear in the second half.  

More 2018 MLB Prospects Analysis