Trading Up: Javier Baez

Before the season, Chicago Cubs manager, Joe “Hates Your Fantasy Baseball Team” Maddon challenged Javier Baez to make himself so productive that Maddon would be forced to start Baez every day. Many fantasy owners are well aware of Maddon’s tendency to split playing time between several strong players, thereby decreasing their volume and consequently their fantasy value as well. Mediocrity and injury have plagued other Cubs this season, and Baez has played in 79 of the Cubs’ 81 games this year (97.5%) in contrast to last year’s 145 games (89.5%).

Baez has undoubtedly been better this year and it's impossible to know whether the increased time has allowed him to take the next step or whether he was going to do that anyway. However, it’s important to recognize that an 8% increase in counting stats is the difference between a guy who contributes 75 Rs and RBI, as Baez did last year, and a guy who contributes 81 Rs and RBI. That may not seem huge, but 75 Rs and RBI are low enough Baez was nearly useless in those categories during 2017. At 81, he moves up to being a modest contributor in two additional categories.`

Fortunately for owners, Baez has benefited from both improved performance and the increase in playing time.

“How You Like Me Now, Joe?”

On some level, Baez has been better in every single fantasy baseball category, unless your league counts defense. More power, more average, more speed, more Rs and RBI. The Javier Baez commercial writes itself. Maddon has openly stated that he thinks Baez can keep improving, but he has to be happy with the progress this season. Here are Baez's 2017 and 2018 stats:

The numbers above speak for themselves, but one of the nice parts of evaluating Javier Baez is that nearly all of those improvements seem justified by underlying peripherals and past performance. Baez’s excellent .365 wOBA is quite close to his .356 xwOBA. Those numbers are both better than his 2017 .326 wOBA and .290 xwOBA. Similarly, his batted-ball profile has improved. He is hitting more balls in the air and striking them harder than last year. In 2017, he managed a 5.5 barrels/PA%. This year, it’s 8.8%, tied for 22nd in the league.

Baez is not only hitting better, but he’s also stealing more and at a higher success rate. His 13 SBs have already eclipsed his 10 from last year. Moreover, last year he was caught three times. This year, he has been caught only once.

All of this success is supported by Baez’s minor league career. Baez was the 9th overall pick, and as he came up through the minors, the only knocks against him were his batting average and K%. Baez’s 2018 K-rate of 24.3% is barely worse than the league average of 22.4%. The criticism of his batting average is a bit too focused on his partial seasons in A+ and AAA. Baez’s career average in the minor leagues was .287, three points lower than his average this season.

Most importantly though, remember that Baez managed at least 30 HRs and 20 SBs in both 2013 and 2014. In those two seasons, he went from high-A to the majors, translating those skills even as he had to adapt to higher levels of play.

Floor and Ceiling Projections

Baez’s growth has been substantial, but he does continue to struggle with taking pitches. That struggle makes him more susceptible to changes in how pitchers deal with him. It leaves him open to regression, but he’s already demonstrated the ability to be a good player, even as opponents attack his weakness.

Baez may cool off, but there’s no reason to believe his power or speed will drop precipitously. Plus there’s no reason to think the Cubs offense will be worse in the second half. There is some possibility that Maddon siphons off plate appearances from Baez, but Baez’s defense and performance make that unlikely. That leaves his batting average and on-base percentage as the significant areas of concern. Here are his high and low projections for the season:

Both of those projections look like a player whom every fantasy manager wants to own. The low projection allows for drops in power, playing time, and overall production, but it still belongs to a top-50 player.

Trade Value Around the Diamond

To contextualize Baez’s floor then, let’s compare his Steamer ROS projection to Francisco Lindor’s preseason projection. Both players are young middle infielders who provide speed and power. Lindor was a consensus top-30 player with a 20.7 ADP. Baez’s ADP was 104.

Baez gives up value in batting average and Rs, but he earns it back in HR, RBI, and SBs. Let’s be clear, Javier Baez is not as valuable as Francisco Lindor is now, but Baez’s value now is immediately comparable to Lindor’s value before the season. Baez has the advantage of playing both second base and shortstop, and he could potentially earn third-base eligibility as well.

The issues above will make it difficult to trade Baez away for good value. Most fantasy owners don’t trust him. Plus, many owners regard batting average as a litmus test of ability. Baez will need at least another season of elite performance to change how fantasy baseball owners perceive him. For now, that may provide a real buying opportunity. Notably, the best one-for-one matchups are for outfielders or starting pitchers, so keep that in mind as you’re making offers.

C - Low End: J.T. Realmuto or Buster Posey
The discrepancy between Baez and both Posey and Realmuto is so egregious it’s unlikely any owner will sell him for either one, unless it’s in a two-catcher league. There is no sell-high option.

1B - Low End: Rhys Hoskins, High End: Anthony Rizzo
Hoskins has been excellent since returning from the DL a month ago, so it will be difficult to part with him. Plus he is on pace to hit 42 HRs in his first 162 MLB games. On the other hand, his batting average is likely to stay lower than Baez’s, he plays first base, and he will offer only a little speed. Hoskins’ ceiling approximates Baez’s ceiling, but remember Hoskins struggles in the first two months of the season. Anthony Rizzo is the opposite end of the spectrum. He’s a first rounder who will be difficult to pry away from owners, but we’ve already seen Rizzo’s floor. He’ll likely match Baez’s HR, R, and RBI numbers for the rest of the season, but expect Rizzo’s second-half batting average to be a bit higher than Baez. Acquiring Rizzo is an effort to purchase an established floor.

2B – Daniel Murphy, Dee Gordon, Ozzie Albies
I wouldn’t trade Baez for any of these players. However, if you believe Murphy is finally healthy and an owner needs batting average, I can understand making a move for him. If an owner simply has to acquire speed, a move for Gordon might make sense. If you simply don’t believe in Baez at all, and you assume that Joe Maddon will revert to giving Baez 90% playing time, then perhaps an exchange of Dozier plus a sweetener would work. If you believe in Ozzie Albies power, then an exchange is about even, but remember that Albies’ HR numbers are dramatically bolstered by the first month of the season. Baez owners shouldn't make those moves unless they need to. All of these deals are poor value.

SS – Low End: Jean Segura, High End: Carlos Correa
If you can find a Baez owner who gets hung up on his batting average, sell them on Jean Segura. The R, RBI, and SB totals are close enough, so it will look like an exchange of HR for batting average. Carlos Correa’s season so far has been a frustration for many owners, and if the Correa owner is struggling with DL issues, that’s a fairly even trade, even though Correa has better name value. Correa’s ceiling might be higher, but Baez has outplayed him so far this season, and Baez has demonstrated the ability to stay on the field. As I wrote earlier, it’s going to be difficult to find fair value for Baez.

3B – Low End: Mike Moustakas, High End: Alex Bregman
Moustakas offers a history of top-tier power and RBIs. His batting average is a fine .261. If the Royals trade him, his value increases. If the Baez owner needs a third baseman, it’s not an absurd offer though it probably requires an additional player. On the other hand, Alex Bregman was apparently supposed to be Nolan Arenado. At least that’s what I have to believe given how many fantasy owners have been dissatisfied with his performance this year. Bregman has gotten hot recently, so maybe there are fewer unhappy owners, but right now, Bregman’s numbers (52/16/53/8/.277) look an awful lot like Baez’s (53/16/61/13/.290). Bregman will probably have the higher batting average at the end of the season, and his elite OBP in the Astros lineup will likely mean a higher R and maybe a higher RBI total. However, Baez’s steals make that a negligible difference.

OF – Low End: Ronald Acuna or Lorenzo Cain; High End: Christian Yelich or Eddie Rosario
Given the hype, there’s some real potential to swing a deal for Baez by dangling a Ronald Acuna or maybe even a Juan Soto. The relative glow for each is a bit diminished by the fact that both players are meeting success right now, but the hype is probably strong enough to swing a trade. Lorenzo Cain is due back on Wednesday, and if Baez would just stop hitting for a couple of days, their numbers will look like they belong in the same tier. That deal may need a sweetener though. Christian Yelich and Eddie Rosario both offer Javier Baez-esque production, but they do so with much better plate discipline. That provides them with higher floors than Baez, but OF is a deeper position, and there is almost no chance that either will surpass Baez’s ceiling.

SP – Low End: Charlie Morton or Mike Clevinger; High End: Gerrit Cole or Noah Syndergaard
Like Baez, Charlie Morton and Mike Clevinger have significantly outperformed their ADPs, and there has been chatter that both pitchers were undervalued coming into the season. Carlos Martinez also fits into this conversation. The Cardinals report his recent struggles were a mechanical flaw and that his eight-strikeout start against the Indians is evidence that he is healthy. Do whatever you want with that. On the high end, Cole is an excellent fit for the same reason as Morton and Clevinger. However, Cole’s pedigree is higher, and his success has been more pronounced with stronger peripherals. Dealing Baez for Syndergaard is a gutsy upside move, but given Syndergaard’s injury history, I’d rather have Cole or maybe even Aaron Nola.

RP - Low End: Blake Treinen, High End: Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman
Standard Disclaimer: Trading for closers is fraught with problems, and I don’t recommend it. In this case, I don’t regard any closer to be a fair value for Baez.

A Final Note: Baez might be a smart player to buy-high, though it could be difficult to get him from owners smitten by his performance this season. Second base has been a difficult position this year. There is some depth, but with the disappointments of Dozier, Murphy, Cano, Schoop, and Odor, it’s more difficult to replace Baez. Still, very few owners are thinking of him as a top-30 player, and that makes the situation an interesting one.