Free agency started on Sunday, but now that LeBron James is officially a Laker, let the madhouse OFFICIALLY begin.
While there are still MULTIPLE free agents still weighing their offers, trades being tweaked and contracts being restructured, one of the more surprising early acquisitions revolved around Trevor Ariza and the Phoenix Suns. The veteran put together a very successful stint in Houston, playing the role of the defensive-minded wing that keeps everyone’s focus on both sides of the ball.
Right before and during the Western Conference Finals, Trevor Ariza was being tagged as THE guy that held the Rockets together. Clearly, James Harden and Chris Paul were the heart and brains, but Ariza was the backbone. Now that experience is going to be sprinkled over a talented crop of upcoming superstars. Now let’s get down to business, how does this affect fantasy output?
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Trevor Ariza and the Phoenix Suns
First off, T.J. Warren is taking a massive hit. While Warren could play the four at certain times, he’s unable to run with significantly bigger lineups, however rare they may be. Ariza has the edge when it comes to defense and where he lacks size he makes up for with intensity. The only problem is, Ariza is getting older and that intensity will be covered by the some-odd twenty year olds he will be playing alongside.
Last season, Warren’s ADP hovered around the 10th, 11th, and 12th rounds. Now that Ariza is here, either expect Warren to find a new role or potentially a new team. Chances are he stays a Suns bench scorer with less upside. If Ariza didn’t establish himself as a perimeter threat that offers value in steals and efficiency categories, I’d be more comfortable fading both properly. Ariza offers more value in the long-term, but there is still a log-jam at the small forward position.
While Warren is 24 and leaves plenty to the imagination when it comes to his ceiling, the same thing can be said twice over for Josh Jackson. This is where things can get cloudy. Ariza is a more experienced player than Jackson, but since the Suns are in a developing stage, the front office cannot afford to sacrifice Jackson’s playing time for an aging veteran. I'd assume Jackson will assume the “starting every game no matter what, because he is our future” role, while Ariza, Warren, and 10th overall pick Mikal Bridges fall into complimentary roles.
With both Elfrid Payton and Tyler Ulis are gone (Ulis’ release against the wishes of Devin Booker), the only PGs on the roster right now are Brandon Knight and 2nd round pick Elie Okobo. Neither of those guys is someone you'd trust handing off the keys to the offense and playing for 30 minutes a game at point. Even when the Suns finally add another true point guard in free agency, it seems guaranteed we'll see Devin Booker get some run as lead ball handler. While he's not ideal in the role, his passing has greatly improved over his young career. It would certainly be something worth doing for a few minutes a game, if only to ease up some of the logjam at the wings. You'd have to imagine the defense gained by having an extra wing on the floor would offset some of the loss in offense. The alternative is if the Suns can somehow come up with a true star point guard via trade, like Kemba Walker. Such a trade would surely include at least one of the wings, so that would sort out the logjam as well, and limit Booker's exposure at PG.
The Suns also made it known that Marquese Chriss is available for trade, which could allow for minutes for promising backup big Alan Williams behind #1 overall pick Deandre Ayton, and open the door for a Dragan Bender to get plenty of run at PF. I won’t say breakout because that’s incredibly optimistic, but as a seven-footer who can (kinda) shoot threes, there is absolutely no reason Bender can’t be contributing nightly. That’s a topic for another time. If the Suns do move Chriss, look for a plenty of Bender and a whole lot of lineups without a traditional 4, with four guards/wings spacing the floor for Ayton -- another way of finding playing time for all of the wings, without having to play Devin Booker at point.
All of this is to say -- if you look a traditional two-big starting lineup (PG, Booker, SF, PF, Ayton), it looks like there won't be a spot for all four of Jackson, Ariza, Warren, and Bridges to get fantasy-relevant minutes. But they're arguably the next four best players on the team after Booker and Ayton, and the Suns have invested too much in them to leave them stuck on the bench. Some combination of non-traditional lineups and a possible trade will open things up for the four wings -- so their fantasy value may drop, but they won't totally fall out of fantasy relevance.
Ariza will have one specific role that supersedes everything else he could possible do on the court in Phoenix. He is going to teach the young guys how to play defense. The Suns are defensively pathetic and this improvement was an absolute necessity. His presence will pay dividends in teaching young stars with the raw talent to be all-NBA on defense -- Jackson and Ayton in particular -- how to focus and harness that talent on the floor.
I would expect the Suns to see a dramatic improvement with Ariza in the locker room, although the fantasy implications will remain at a minimal level. With the number of wings that are still capable of scoring and on the roster, Ariza, Warren, Jackson and Bridges will have to fight for consistent production. Jackson will be safe, but the other three will be subject to strictly DFS contests and as streamers in seasonal leagues. This is the best way to put it. Go look at the Suns roster. Two players stick out as old men and you can assume they will be offering more OFF the court. Jared Dudley and Trevor Ariza have been in the league for a long time and know the importance of defense. Luckily, this is about fantasy production and this signing is about a 4/10 when it comes to fantasy relevance.