2018 ADP Throwdown - Andrew Luck vs. Philip Rivers

Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

This article comes from staff writers Taylor Maxston and Dominick Petrillo who compare quarterbacks that are being taken in rounds eight to ten of fantasy drafts.

Taylor argues in favor of a former No. 1 fantasy quarterback who is returning from injury in Indianapolis Colts signal-caller Andrew Luck, while Dominick advocates for a repeat member of the 4,000-passing-yards-in-a-season club in Los Angeles Chargers passer Philip Rivers.

Opening Statements: Who Do You Draft?

Andrew Luck Could Reach His 2014 Heights This Season – Taylor Maxston

After a long and tumultuous road to recover from a right shoulder injury, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck appears ready to return to the field and remind fantasy owners of what they have been missing. Stepping aside from the fantasy football spotlight for a moment though, I want to make clear that Luck has firmly established that when healthy, he is an elite quarterback in the league. In 2016, the most recent year we saw Luck in action, Pro Football Focus graded Luck as the fourth-best quarterback as well as the most improved after his overall grade rose from a career-worst 45.1 in 2015 (ranked 38th at the position) to an elite 92.4.

Back to fantasy projections, owners should be extremely excited that Luck is returning to an offense modeled after that of his 2014 season where he finished as the top fantasy quarterback. T.Y. Hilton remains a dominant pass-catching weapon who is only two seasons removed from leading the league in receiving yards and the dynamic tight end tandem of the always reliable Jack Doyle and athletic freak Eric Ebron arguably has the 16-touchdown upside that Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener once had. In addition, Luck will have a markedly better offensive line blocking for him after the team drafted Quenton Nelson with the sixth pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and the line gets stalwart left tackle Anthony Castonzo back from injury. Luck has been set up for fantasy success this upcoming season and there is no question that if he can stay on the field, many owners will be extremely happy to snag him in the eighth round of drafts.

Philip Rivers Remains as Talented as Ever and Should Finish in the Top-10 – Dominick Petrillo

At 36 years of age, Philip Rivers is still playing at the top of his game in Los Angeles. With the likes of Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen on the roster, the weapons are there for him to stay there. While he may not have the 5,000-yard upside of a Drew Brees, he has finished with over 4,000 yards passing in six of the last seven seasons and has not had less than 26 touchdown passes in over a decade.

The injury to Hunter Henry is a concern, but the likely return of Antonio Gates to fill the role will mean the return of Rivers' best friend and could turn out to be a boon for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The defense is going to be one of the elites along with Jacksonville and Minnesota and this will mean a lot of time on the field to build stats for the offense. Rivers, besides using Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen will have other toys to use. Including last year's seventh overall selection Mike Williams, as well as veterans Tyrell Williams and speedster Travis Benjamin the receiving group is loaded and should provide the 4,000-yard, 26-touchdown baseline we have become accustomed to out of Rivers. Going currently at the 10^th pick of the ninth round in fantasy drafts behind players such as Jimmy Garoppolo Rivers is a steal in value and should again finish in the top 10 quarterbacks despite the lack of respect, or maybe because of it.

Rebuttals: Why Take One Over the Other?

Andrew Luck’s League-Winning Upside Outshines Philip Rivers by a Mile – Taylor Maxston

It is impossible to say that Andrew Luck’s shoulder won’t become a problem at some point in the 2018 season and there certainly will be some rust to shake off given the fact that he hasn’t experienced game action in around 19 months. That being said, winning a fantasy football championship isn’t always about playing it safe. Philip Rivers certainly grades well when it comes to consistency, as he has only thrown for under 4,000 passing yards once since Luck entered the league in 2012. However, in that same span, Luck has completely outshined Rivers on average in terms of fantasy finishes in seasons where each quarterback has played at least 15 games.

Excluding Luck’s 2015 season where he only played in seven games and 2017 season where he missed the entire year, Luck has averaged a QB-5 fantasy finish compared to Rivers’ QB-10 average across six full seasons. This is not too surprising given the fact that Rivers has had some seemingly erratic turnover issues through his last six seasons, including league-leading interception totals in 2014 and 2016.

When you choose to take Luck just over a full round ahead of Rivers as his average draft position demands, the tangible difference in upside is what an owner will get. Luck has already been reassuring Colts fans and fantasy owners that he is far along on the comeback trail by winging deep-ball touchdowns like this one in training camp. For risk-averse owners, Rivers is likely your best bet. However, owners who aren’t nervous about gambling on league-wining upside should take a chance on the passer who could very well finish as the No. 1 fantasy option at his position: Andrew Luck.

Andrew Luck Will Have a Hard Time Returning to Form – Dominick Petrillo

If Andrew Luck is healthy, which is a big if, he is as good or better than Philip Rivers. Playing in a dome stadium for at least half the season does not hurt his value either. This said, we don’t know about his health at this point and to take him above players like Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger at this point in time is not worth the risk. Most teams only carry one quarterback out of the draft and making this a quarterback who is iffy to start the seasons means wasting another roster spot on a quarterback in the draft. Although his skills may be on par with those of Rivers, the one thing Rivers has in his favor is those weapons we talked about. While Rivers has Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams, Andrew luck has T.Y. Hilton and… wait I am still thinking. Oh, wait, Eric Ebron. Yeah, not too thrilling to say the least.

While the offensive line in Indianapolis has improved this offseason, the Chargers may have had the best two offensive line pick-ups of the offseason. With Mike Pouncey and Forrest Lamp who is returning from the ACL tear which sidelined him as a rookie. If Pouncey can play to the level he has been known for and Lamp lives up to the talent he was expected to have coming out of Western Kentucky, the line in Los Angeles will be one of the tops in the NFL. With all of these factors being considered, the injury concerns, the offensive line, and the weapons, Philip Rivers has a much higher floor than Andrew Luck and virtually the same ceiling. This then makes him the no-brainer pick as your quarterback of choice in the ninth round of your fantasy draft.