Ryan Grant (WR, IND) - 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~220

CURRENT ADP: ~230

ANALYSIS: Andrew Luck is back, and wide receiver Ryan Grant now plays for the Colts. True, Grant was largely underwhelming over his four seasons for the ‘Skins, but he did show flashes of brilliance and is coming off the best season of his career – 573 yards, four TDs. He is a draft sleeper due to the 1.25 fantasy points per target he put up a season ago (25^th – min. 25 targets). Yes, he had just two double-digit scoring weeks in 2017, and yes, he went over 75 yards just twice despite finishing fourth on the team in targets. Thing is, his 65 targets ranked 66^th at the receiver position so it is not like he saw a gang of work.

Using last season’s data to project this Colts offense is unreasonable, considering Luck was not in action, but Donte Moncrief and Kamar Aiken – who ranked 2^nd and 3^rd at the WR position for Indy in targets in ’17 – now play for the Jags and Eagles, respectively. Moncrief had a 9.7% target share while Aiken saw 9%. Combined, the two accounted for 91 targets and a healthy Luck also means the Colts are not likely to finish with the 3^rd fewest pass attempts again this season – that number was 487 and Luck has averaged 530 pass attempts per season over his five-year career (including the seven-game 2015 season). Subtract Moncrief/Aiken, and add Luck, and it seems safe to assume Grant will see around 75 targets this season.

Now if Grant is able to match those 1.25 fantasy points per target, we are looking at 93.8 fantasy points on the year; which would have made him the #41 scoring WR a season ago. While this is not amazing, Grant could be an amazing value given his ADP. Grant is currently the 83^rd receiver off the board (again, undrafted in a large majority of leagues), but he could easily wind up flirting with the Top-35.