Champ or Chump: Harrison Bader and Luis Urias

Last time, we looked at a couple of widely available waiver wire options who could help owners get the steals or homers they need to move up in the standings. It's also possible that you need to improve your batting average (or OBP), but rate stats can be more difficult to make a dent in five months into the season.

That said, you have to try if your standings page is telling you to do so. Harrison Bader has harnessed the power of Cardinals devil magic to lead NL rookies in WAR, but his profile does not support his current batting line. Instead, owners looking for batting average may want to look to Luis Urias of the San Diego Padres. Just don't expect anything besides average and walks from him.

Let's take a closer look at these two National League rookies.

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Harrison Bader (OF, STL) - 26% Owned

Bader has done a little bit of everything for fantasy owners in 2018, slashing .280/.351/.443 with nine homers and 12 steals (three CS) in his 317 PAs. Unfortunately, both his MLB peripheral stats and MiLB resume suggest that Bader isn't actually this strong of a hitter.

Let's begin by dissecting his .280 batting average. Bader's 28.6% LD% would look unsustainable for anybody, much less a rookie whose previous professional high was 24.4% in Double-A. Overall, Bader's LD% jumped around at every MiLB stop, making it difficult to conclude that he will be able to reliably surpass the league average rate of around 21% in the majors. Bader is hitting .691 on his line drives this season, so losing seven percent of them will take a big bite out of his .380 BABIP.

Otherwise, Bader's batted ball distribution is a mixed bag for his fantasy value. His 30.2% FB% is low enough to elevate his BABIP, but it currently doesn't due to an extremely high pop-up rate (19% IFFB%). Bader is fast enough to make the most of ground balls, but his .367 mark on the ground borders on ludicrous. His average exit velocity on worm killers is slightly better than average at 83.7mph and he can run, but .280 is probably the best case scenario moving forward.

Meanwhile, his FB% is too low to project much power production even as his HR/FB stands at a solid 15.5%. He helps himself by pulling more fly balls than most (29.3%), but his Statcast power indicators (91.7mph average airborne exit velocity, 5.2% rate of Brls/BBE) suggest that his HR/FB is inflated. Statcast's expected stats peg Bader as a .228 hitter with a .362 slugging percentage, numbers that make him unrosterable in most fantasy formats. That .228 mark is particularly problematic because it assumes zero line drive regression, though it also underestimates the impact of his speed.

Bader's 28.7% K% is ugly, but his plate discipline indicators (11.7% SwStr%, 29.9% chase rate) aren't actually that bad. He's also working his fair share of walks (7.9% BB%). Perhaps the best way to make sense of everything that doesn't add up in this profile is to take a closer look at his MiLB career.

Bader debuted in the High Minors for Double-A Springfield in 2016, slashing .283/.351/.497 with 16 long balls and 11 steals (but 10 CS) across 356 PAs. Springfield is a great park for power hitters (1.445 HR factor from 2014-16), a fact that allowed Bader to post a 22.5% HR/FB and respectable power numbers despite a 31.6% FB%. Otherwise, he used a 24.4% LD% and .349 BABIP to mask a relatively high 26.1% K%.

The Cardinals bought the performance, promoting him to Triple-A Memphis that season. Bader slashed .231/.298/.354 with three homers and two steals (three CS) over 161 PAs for his new club, suggesting that he was overmatched. His LD% regressed to 15.4% while his FB% soared to 42.3%, a combination that produced a below average .292 BABIP. A 6.8% HR/FB minimized the value of the additional fly balls, though at least he cut down on his strikeouts (23.6% K%).

Bader repeated Triple-A in 2017 and had a much better time of it, slashing .283/.347/.469 with 20 HR and 15 SB (nine CS) over 479 PAs. He still struck out too much (24.6% K%), but combined a 41.1% FB% and 15.7% HR/FB rate to produce enough power to make up for it. His BABIP (.345) also returned to its Double-A level, though it wasn't propped up by LD% this time (21.4%). The performance earned him 92 MLB PAs last year, but he only slashed .235/.283/.376 with three homers and a couple of steals.

The 24-year old Bader is an incredible raw athlete, clocking in with a Statcast Sprint Speed of 30 ft./sec (aka Billy Hamilton territory) and a league-leading 18 Outs Above Average in the outfield. These two traits practically force the Cards to play him every day even if he stops hitting, giving him value in deeper leagues on playing time alone.

However, his offense is all over the place. His K% has been problematic at both the MiLB and MLB levels despite solid peripheral stats. He hit fly balls in the minors but hasn't translated that to the majors just yet. Likewise, his HR/FB has consistently been plus despite mediocre power indicators. He runs like the wind but mostly ran into outs on the farm. There is potential here, but you're probably better off letting somebody else figure out this bizarre profile if you need a specific stat.

Verdict: Chump

Luis Urias (2B, SD) - 13% Owned

Do you remember Placido Polanco? He was an infielder who was once counted on to stabilize a fantasy team's batting average in the later rounds of a draft. He also had a knack for hitting second in the order, giving him R+RBI despite not offering much power or speed. That profile is back in the major leagues in the form of 21-year old Luis Urias.

Urias played for Double-A San Antonio last year, slashing .296/.398/.380 with three homers and seven steals (five CS) over 526 PAs. He walked (12.9% BB%) more often than he struck out (12.4% K%), an incredible accomplishment for a 20-year old at any level. His low K% also allowed him to make the most of a .340 BABIP backed by a minuscule 25.8% FB%. He wasn't impressive by LD% (21%) and his 3.1% HR/FB sounds like a joke, but Urias proved skilled at hitting singles and working walks.

That got him a shot at Triple-A El Paso this season, where he slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight homers and two steals (one CS) over 533 PAs. The power uptick seems encouraging, but it was almost certainly a case of San Antonio suppressing power (0.683 HR factor) while El Paso inflates it (1.326). Urias still didn't hit that many fly balls (29.4% FB%) or do much with the few he managed (8% HR/FB). His LD% was also a normal 21.5%, but he still came up with a .373 BABIP and 12.6% BB% to support his overall line. His K% increased dramatically to 20.5% at the higher level, but that's still pretty low for a 21-year old at Triple-A.

Scouting reports suggest that Urias can run but has no base stealing instincts, meaning that his speed will only show up in inflated BABIPs. He hit second in his MLB debut, suggesting that the Padres will give him every opportunity to accumulate counting stats and PAs in September. If you need average or OBP, Polanco version 2.0 is probably your best option.

Verdict: Champ

More 2018 Player Outlooks