RADIO
If you're reading this now, you probably already know not to make snap judgments in the first week of any season - crazy things can happen in small sample sizes and dropping players you drafted because of a couple bad games for someone who had one good game (BOBAN HYPE TRAIN?) is usually not a good strategy conducive to winning a league.
Sometimes though, there is a legitimate reason to be excited in a player's hot start, as new circumstances and real progress for a young player can be a harbinger of great things to come (like Victor Oladipo last year). Buying into these players before their prices get really expensive can be a winning move.
Today I'm going to look at a few week 1 surprises that I'm buying, and going over the circumstances surrounding them.
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Week One NBA Breakouts to Believe In
De'Aaron Fox, PG, SAC
35.5 mpg, 20.3 pts, 0.3 3pm, 5.0 reb, 7.7 ast, 1.3 stl, 0.3 blk, .525 FG%, .783 FT%
It may only be a 3 game sample size, but the Sacramento Kings are currently second in the league in pace at 110.67. I don't see a reason for that to change too much. The Kings' defense is abysmal and will be scored on a lot and scored on quickly, leading to frenetic games of catch up all season, and the biggest benefactor of this will be their 20-year-old point guard as he pushes the fast break for this team.
Fox has gotten a ton of run in the first 3 games, and he will be given every opportunity to grow as the point guard of the future for a lottery-bound squad. I saw the low 3s attempted and high FG% and thought we maybe could see an Elfrid Payton/Rajon Rondo effect - a poor shooting PG giving out of position FG% due to attempting a large volume of shots at the rim, but unfortunately that's not the case here as Fox has only attempted 29% of his shots at the rim and leads the league with a 54% share of his shots attempted from mid-range.
Unfortunately, this does mean that shooting percentage will tank hard, and I see it settling in the low to mid-40s unless his shot distribution changes. The rest of the profile is fully sustainable if the Kings keep up this pace, and you should absolutely grab Fox if you are in the one of the 25% or so of leagues where he is available on the wire. He will be exceptional in any of the % punt builds, or in punt 3s if can take the efficiency hit.
Caris Levert, SF, BKN
31.3 mpg, 24.7 pts, 1.3 3pm, 4.7 reb, 4.0 ast, 1.0 stl, 0.7 blk, .650 FG%, .857 FT%
Last year, we got a taste of what Caris LeVert could be given with more chances as a primary ball handler, and if the beginning of this season is any indication, we could be in for a big year. While the monster 27.6 usage will come down a bit when Rondae Hollis-Jefferson steps on the court and the .650 FG% is about as sustainable as people actually staying quiet when Boban has a big game, there's a lot to be excited about here.
LeVert's improved free throw shooting from the pre-season has carried over into the regular season, and if he is able to settle in as a high 70s free throw shooter, his value and versatility across builds would climb dramatically. With the improvement in assists expected this year from playing on the ball more, you could call his fantasy profile Jimmy Butler-lite with a straight face, and unlike the broccoli haired malcontent, you can still pick him up off some waiver wires.
If he's on your wire, grab him immediately, and I would even "buy high" to an extent if his owner will move him for a top-90 ish player. Out of position assists are an incredibly valuable resource, and LeVert will provide that and more. I see an easy path to top-60 upside here, and someone who makes a ton of sense especially in a build like punt 3s.
JaVale McGee, C, LAL
20.7 mpg, 14.5 pts, 0.0 3pm, 7.0 reb, 1.5 ast, 0.5 stl, 4.0 blk, .706 FG%, .714 FT%
The Jordan Bell hype train was in full swing during this draft season, despite legitimate minutes concerns in a crowded frontcourt. With awesome per 36 numbers, many expected Bell to return something like 0.7 steals and 1.8 blocks with good low volume shooting percentage and low enough free throw volume to not hurt you there, a valuable skillset that had some people inexplicably paying late-mid round prices to take a flier on.
Well, what if you could have Jordan Bell's hypothetical value, except, you know, not have it be hypothetical? You have to look no further than a Shaqtin' a Fool highlight reel to find that, as JaVale McGee has given his owners even more than that in his first 2 games with the Lakers. JaVale has an actual carved out role for this team and has shown some great chemistry with LeBron James already in this young season, and I don't really see a reason why this would change as the season moves on.
Sure there are some matchups where McGee is unplayable and won't see the floor too much against smaller teams with quick 5s, but he won't be a complete zero even in those matchups as he is deceptively fast and athletic for a behemoth of his size despite the overblown reputation as an uncoordinated goofball. He isn't as matchup reliant as someone like Tristan Thompson, and there is no reason he can't return something like 9.0 points, 6.0 boards, and 1.8 blocks over the whole season in the role he's in. That's very useful and worth quite a bit more than the back end starter you either can drop or trade for him now.
Danny Green, SG/SF, TOR
32.1 mpg, 10.0 pts, 2.7 3pm, 4.3 reb, 1.0 ast, 1.3 stl, 1.0 blk, .385 FG%, 1.000 FT%
Danny Green has been a tremendous disappointment since his crazy top 40 season in 2014-2015. Despite possessing one of the most fantasy-friendly skillsets a guard can have, he has been a borderline standard league guy due to inconsistent minutes in his last 3 seasons with the Spurs.
The Kawhi Leonard trade to the Raptors that saw Danny Green head north as well as a sneaky good throw-in piece looks like a huge boon for Green's fantasy value, and could see him come closer to that legendary '14-'15 season than he has in any year since.
The number that stands out here is the minutes, as Green has coach Nick Nurse's trust. He is a perfect fit for the Raptor's system as a 3-and-D wing, and there is no reason to expect the minutes to drop. Despite a shaky game last night, Green still got 31 minutes in the second game of a back to back, and given that kind of run, it's not unreasonable to expect the 2 3s, 1 stl, 1 blk package that has made Danny such an attractive pickup in the past.
