Domingo Santana (OF, SEA) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 190

CURRENT ADP: ~240 overall

ANALYSIS: The second Santana was dealt to the Mariners this off-season, I boarded the hype train. He wasn't going to get the necessary amount of PA in Milwaukee's crowded outfield and is too talented to be sitting on the pine as a reserve. Last season he only received half a season's worth of big league at-bats, and could never get in a groove to reinforce an incredible 2017 season. That season, his first full MLB campaign, saw Domingo hit 30 HR and a .278 BA with 15 SB. Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt were the only other players to go 30/15 with a BA above .275. A year and a half later, fantasy owners are letting one playing-time-induced poor season determine 2017 as a fluke?

His NFBC ADP is currently at 253, so maybe that isn't entirely true but compared to his 45th overall ranking in 2017 it's still a great potential value. I am locking in 30 HR over his first full season with the Mariners despite him hitting just 13 combined dongs between AAA and the bigs last year. First off, he's done it before. Secondly, he increased his Hard% for the third straight season last year to an impressive 40.1%.

The real question for me with Domingo is the BA. Should a repeat of the .278 BA be possible with a K% over 30%? No. But it oddly seems like Santana is able to defy all BABIP odds, after posting a .359, .368, and .386 BABIP in his last three MLB seasons, respectively. He even boasted a .425 BABIP through 55 AAA games last year. Strong line drive numbers and an almost Joey Votto-esque career IFFB% (2.9%) shows that even if the BA does fail to replicate his 2017 breakout, it shouldn't fall too far.