Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) - 2019 Fantasy Football Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~60 Overall

Current ADP: ~70

Denver’s projected distribution of targets among its arsenal of wide receivers is more nebulous than the majority of franchises. The 6’4”, 216-pound Courtland Sutton enters his second season with an opportunity to seize the Broncos’ WR1 responsibilities. His primary competition for targets appeared to reside with fellow second-year receiver Daesean Hamilton,  who had averaged 9.5 targets and 6.3 receptions per-game from Weeks 14-17. But Hamilton’s usage might be more constrained than previously expected due to Emmanuel Sanders’ rapid return from his devastating injury. The 32-year old‘s recovery from a torn Achilles has occurred well ahead of schedule while altering the original forecasts for teammates Hamilton and (to a lesser degree) Sutton.

But even though Sanders will now procure a more substantial role that what had previously appeared possible, Sutton can deliver a downfield presence that neither Sanders or Hamilton can provide. He possesses a favorable blend of size, route-running acumen, dependable hands, and the capability of capturing jump balls. This supplies him with the opportunity to lead the Broncos in targets, while easily providing a path for pacing the team in yardage, and red zone targets. If Sutton can capitalize on his strengths, he should deliver a sizable increase in his reception and yardage totals.

Sutton performed in all 16 games during his initial season and led Bronco receivers in snaps (819/76.3%). He ultimately captured 6+ targets in eight different contests, averaged 6.5 from Weeks 11-16, and generated 54 yards-per-game from Weeks 9-16. Sutton finished third among rookies with 704 yards and was deployed downfield with enough frequency to lead all first-year receivers with 16 receptions of 20+ yards. Sutton was also seventh among all receivers in yards-per-reception 16.8, and his average rose to 23.7 from Weeks 6-10.

There are several hurdles which do not exist with the other breakout candidates that have been examined. Sutton does need to improve on his 2018 catch rate (50%). It will also be incumbent on Joe Flacco to locate Sutton with accuracy, after finishing 29^th in NextGenStats’ average air yards differential (AYD/-2.5). However, Sutton will function as Denver’s primary downfield weapon throughout the season. That places him in position to reach 900+ yards if the tandem of Sutton and Flacco can connect with any consistency.