Jack Doyle (TE, IND) - Week 5 Waiver Wire Pickups

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OWNED IN: 20% of Leagues

ANALYSIS: It is a little mindboggling how recency bias can affect our choices. You just have to look at Eric Ebron's and Jack Doyle's 2018 season. Ebron finished the year with a completely unsustainable--albeit historical, one must acknowledge--stat line of 66 receptions, 750 yards, and 13 touchdowns. At the same time, Doyle was limited by injury (played only six games) and could only get 245 yards on 26 catches to go with two scores. Everybody, obviously, was high on Ebron because of what he had just done. The problem was that Ebron scored more touchdowns in 2018 than in his past four pro years (13 to 11), and his receptions and yards were both career-highs too. Regression was coming.

Nobody thought of Doyle when debating which tight end to draft back at the start of September, but already at the end of 2018 Doyle was eating from Ebron's chances and limiting the latter's upside. When both Doyle and Ebron played, Ebron's receptions dropped more than one per game, on four fewer targets per match too. Why didn't people look at that information entering 2019? No reason not to and things are working exactly as it could be predicted.

Through four weeks, Doyle has been on the field for more snaps than Ebron so far (70% of the offensive plays to Ebron's 50%), has one more target (17 to 16), and has caught more passes (11 to eight). Ebron's advantage comes in yardage, where he has amassed 128 yards in comparison to Doyle's 109, and touchdowns (two to one). The difference between both tight ends is virtually inexistent, and by the end of Week 4, Doyle is averaging 7.0 fantasy points per game and Ebron 8.0. Their ownership, though, sits at 20% for Doyle and 71% for Ebron. Bonkers.

At this point, I don't think Ebron is a must-start TE if he's on your roster or you drafted him to start the season with him. Only Evan Engram, Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce have proven enough to be no-brainers each week. The rest of the players at the position are clear streaming options.

If you can pick Doyle off waivers, this could be the moment to do it. Indianapolis goes against Kansas City in Week 5 and Detroit was this close to pulling the upset in Week 4 with a great bounceback from TE T.J. Hockenson (he had to leave early due to injury). The Chiefs rank 4th-worst in points allowed to tight ends, so it could be a good time to put Doyle in your lineup,