BALLER MOVE: Target ~260s
CURRENT ADP: ~286 overall
ANALYSIS: Oftentimes we hear the word "sleeper" in fantasy sports and think of a younger player who is primed to catch most owners off-guard with surprising success. In reality, we should simply be thinking about players who are being overlooked based on their role and opportunity. Basically, old guys can be sleepers too.
Enter Starlin Castro. Castro was quietly effective in Miami last year, hitting .270 with 22 home runs, 68 runs and 86 RBIs. A lot of that success was due to legitimate growth. Most notably, he cut his K% and improved his Hard% for the third year in a row, down to 16.4% in 2019. His GB% dropped under 50% and he saw an over 4% rise in FB% which all led to a career-high ISO that doesn't seem flukey.
Now he moves to a much stronger Washington lineup and a better offensive park. People should be all over him, but his ADP remains stagnant because many projection systems seem to have him playing around 122 games. I'm not sure I understand that. Even with Asdrubal Cabrera and Howie Kendrick back, Castro has been mentioned as the clear starting 2B and should see close to full playing time. Carter Kieboom is not a lock to take the 3B job, and Castro could slide to 3B if the Nationals decide to get innings at 2B for Cabrera or Kendrick, who can also get his at-bats in the outfield. Plus, even if Castro plays 150 games in Washington instead of the 162 he played last year in Miami, he is likely going to have similar at-bat totals and better counting stats with the stronger offense.
He's a career .280 hitter who makes over 90% Z-Contact currently slotted to hit fifth in one of the best offenses in baseball. There's no reason he can't push for 20+ home runs and another 80+ RBI season with a strong batting average and runs. He's an incredibly solid pick if you want a high floor player later in drafts.
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