Domingo Santana (OF, CLE) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~270s

CURRENT ADP: ~300 overall

ANALYSIS:

Domingo Santana will likely be the starting LF for the Cleveland Indians and locked into regular at-bats in the middle of a solid lineup. He should really be a DH given his defensive shortcomings, but Franmil Reyes is bad at fielding too, so Santana should have a pretty solid hold on a lineup spot. This means fantasy owners simply get to wonder whether he'll hit enough to justify his modest acquisition cost, and that seems likely.

Santana produced a 30/15 season in 2017 and was well on his way toward a repeat performance in 2019 before injury struck. In his first 90 games, Santana was hitting .286/.354/.496 with 18 HRs, 52 runs, and 63 RBI, plus he'd chipped in six steals. Then he injured his shoulder in July and would come back to hit .128/.234/.234 over his final 31 games, hitting only three home runs and running significantly less. Without a doubt, the injury is to blame for stalling what was shaping up to be another dynamic season.

Still only 27-years-old, Santana's underlying metrics from 2019 suggest that the first-half numbers were sustainable. His 12.5% barrel%, paired with an 89 mph exit velocity, 41.2 Sweet Spot%, and elite .483 xwobacon are extremely enticing. His 32% K-rate is still too high, but the .250 average is legitimate and not BABIP-driven, and Santana did up his FB% in order to try to make the most of his power-centric contact. With a 4% drop in O-Swing, 3% drop in SwStr%, and a 3% rise in Contact%, it's possible that Santana is making modest gains in plate discipline, which would only help both his average and overall quality of contact. And now he gets to try and make good on those gains in a much better offense with the ability to drive in guys like Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez.

That sounds to me like a hitter who could push for .250-25-10 with potential for 80 runs and RBIs if he keeps that starting spot, as I believe he will. I think the projection systems are way off base here, and I'd currently take him over Grichuk, who's going 274.