XFL Week 4 - RB Opportunity Risers and Fallers

With four weeks already completed, it appears the XFL is here to stay and the season is now a lock to finish. That means the fantasy analysis rolls on!

We already looked at target risers and fallers based on the first four weeks of XFL data. Now, it's time to review the running backs, for better or worse.

In this column, I'll be taking a look at some risers and fallers in the receiving and rushing stats departments, more precisely at how different running backs did in terms of opportunities garnered in Week 4 compared to prior weeks' averages to see how those varied, how different teams around the league are using their backfield assets, and what those men are making of their chances. Let's get to it!

Week 1-4 Opportunities: Overall View

With three weeks on the books, up to 31 rushers have stitched their names in the XFL history books. Between all of them, they have combined for 166 targets through the air (5.35 per player on the season) and 658 rushing attempts (21.2 per player also through four weeks). All touchdowns considered, those opportunities have translated into 20 touchdowns (15 rushing, five receiving) and a total of 3,516 yards (2,667 on the ground, 849 receiving).

As ridiculous as it might sound, there is currently a pair of two-horse races for the lead in rushing attempts (Matt Jones has 67, DeVeon Smith is second with 66) and targets/receptions (Lance Dunbar has 25/22, Cameron Artis-Payne follows him with 23/20) at the running back position. Volume is good, but production is what truly matters. That is where DeVeon Smith (296 rushing yards) and Lance Dunbar (136 receiving yards) are leading the pack.

We define an "opportunity" as either a rushing attempt or a receiving target. Here is how those opportunities (ruAtt+reTgt) have been shared among players in Week 4 (vertical axis) and prior weeks (horizontal axis; average stats), with the color diverging from green (more opportunities in Week 4) to red (indicating a higher number of opportunities in prior weeks on average).

click image for full-screen view

Only three players saw a six-opportunity or greater improvement from the first three weeks to this one and only one player (Ja'Quan Gardner) dropped to a seven-opportunity difference with his season-average while still logging at least two opportunities this past weekend.

Let's take a look at the real risers and fallers from the first couple of weeks to Week 4 next.

Week 1-4 Opportunities: Risers and Fallers

I have calculated the difference in opportunities from Week 4 (positive numbers favor it) to the prior ones, and here is how things looked after this last weekend's slate of games was over.

Tampa Bay ran the ball how they wanted, and ran DC out of town. Two Vipers raised their opportunities by more than eight compared to their usual averages and occupied two of the top three spots of this week in this leaderboard. Darius Victor is sandwiched between them with a +10 opportunity bump helping Manhattan edge LA. Speaking of LA, let's say this wasn't the best weekend for their rushers with two players trailing in the opportunity ranks this week and logging one and none (due to injury) chances. Ugh.

Risers

Darius Victor, NY (+10, from 9 opportunities to 19)

New York won their matchup against LA just by three points on the scoreboard and although Victor didn't help put any numbers on the board he finished with 18 rushing attempts and a target to spare on the day. He rushed the ball for 82 yards and while the performance wasn't anything out of this world (it just gave him the standard 8.2 PPR) the bump in chances is well worth keep tracking of going forward.

Both Victor and Tim Cook are the clear go-to rushers of the Guardians and so far Victor has beaten Cook to the no. 1 role. He should hang on it firmly and the current trend is only making that path the most probable for the remainder of the season.

De'Veon Smith (+10, from 17 opportunities to 27) and Jacques Patrick, TB (+10, from 9 opportunities to 19)

Tampa Bay went nuts, demolished DC, and did it all on the ground. Oh, lord. The Vipers ran as many as 46 (!) plays through Smith and Patrick this past weekend, and given the results, they couldn't have taken a better approach to the game. Smith logged 24 carries and 122 yards while Patrick had 21 for 108 and a score himself. On the receiving end, Smith caught two of his three targets for 11 extra yards and also converted an extra-point play.

This is going to be hard to replicate, as Smith (19.3 PPR) and Patrick (19.8) had their best games of the year in the same week and that shouldn't be the case weekly, but both of them shown a terrific efficiency and prowess to give the Vipers a bump in the standings.

Fallers

Ja'Quan Gardner, SEA (-7, from 10 opportunities to 3)

Three rushers featured for the Dragons this past weekend. Two of them logged five carries, and Gardner was third among the group with just three. Of course, he saw no targets on the day and could only run for 15 yards on his three chances. All in all, a putrid 1.5 PPR performance that went for nothing as Seattle dropped its game and went into the L column after losing 23-16 to St. Louis.

Gardner hadn't been close to a world-beater, mind you, but his nine, 10, and eight rushing attempts in the first three weeks of the season bode well for him going forward. It seems that Seattle realized he was mostly wasting plays (he had scored 3.6, 2.7, and 3.7 fantasy points in those three games...) so they straight cut Gardner opportunities in Week 4. It might be time to forget about Ja'Quan. Another stinker like this one and his days of XFL-relevance might be over.

Elijah Hood, LA (-10, from 11 opportunities to 1)

While it's true that LA didn't have the best backfield-situation around the nation, the truth is Hood laid an egg for the Wildcats. Sure, Hood came back from missing LA's Wee 3 game but with two weeks of rest and on the field he only logged one carry for four yards on the day. He was beaten by teammates DuJuan Harris (five attempts) and Larry Rose (also five rushing attempts) this weekend with Martez Carter out of the lineup due to injury.

This is a borderline-faller given his health, sure, but the Wildcats will probably have Carter back next weekend and if Hood doesn't step up his game (he's averaging 2.3 PPR on the season...) he might fall down the pecking order entirely and turn into an irrelevant fantasy player leaving the door open to Carter (15.3 PPR per game through Week 3) to keep his numbers up.

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