Lance McCullers (SP, HOU) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~135

CURRENT ADP: ~155 overall

ANALYSIS: McCullers wasn't a sleeper when we entered February mainly because he had an injury that was capping his total innings and causing him to be drafted later than their talent would suggest. With a shortened season, much of that risk no longer applies.

McCullers missed all of 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the talented right-hander went 10-6 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2018 before the injury. When he's on the mound, McCullers has begun using an off-speed-heavy approach, almost fully abandoning his four-seam fastball. He features a curve and changeup that both have a PutAway% of 25 or greater with the changeup registering a 6.8 pVAL in 2018. His SwStr% rose to an elite 13.5% in 2018, and his K-BB% was a solid 17.5%, which is further evidence of McCullers' strikeout upside when he's healthy.

The only concern for the 2020 season had been that the Astros said they'd cap McCullers' innings around 120. That no longer concerns me with most pitchers likely unable to throw much more than that.