RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~215-225
CURRENT ADP: ~247 overall
ANALYSIS: The Marlins aren't anybody's idea of a good team, and Caleb Smith's 4.52 ERA and 5.05 xFIP over 153 1/3 IP in 2019 aren't exciting. However, there is a lot of potential in this package. Smith's fastball combines an above-average spin rate (2,425 RPM) with elite 96.7% active spin, tying with Josh Hader for the sixth-best mark in baseball. The result is great for both strikeouts (10.3 SwStr%, 54.5 Zone%) and harmless pop-ups (60.5 FB%, 21.4 IFFB%).
While Smith's .251 BABIP allowed might look like a fluke, his high 52.5 FB% and propensity for pop-ups strongly suggest that it's a skill. He also brings two solid strikeout pitches to the table in the form of a slider (15.1 SwStr%, 43 Zone%, 37.2% chase) and changeup (16.4 SwStr%, 39.5 Zone%, 37.3% chase), so last year's 26 K% could have room to grow.
Smith did have injury woes last year, so he could rebound to his first-half performance (3.50 ERA, 31.1 K% in 72 IP), especially if a pre-2019 ball is used. If all goes well, he could deliver sizable fantasy value as a later-round pick in 2020, even playing on the Marlins.
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