Kyle Gibson (SP, TEX) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~310-325

CURRENT ADP: ~336 overall

ANALYSIS: During the 2019 season, Kyle Gibson posted a 13-7 record and 4.84 ERA over 160 innings, but his 3.80 xFIP was right in line with the 3.62 ERA and 3.91 xFIP that he posted in 2018. His 22.7 K% last year was also a career-best, though fairly modest by fantasy standards. The 32-year-old has a deep repertoire of secondary pitches and is moving to an organization that has had a knack for turning pitchers into fantasy assets in recent years.

Gibson's slider and changeup serve as excellent put-away pitches that are easily good enough to post a K% around 30, but Gibson has never reached those heights because his fastballs leave much to be desired. A 42.3% Zone% on a vanilla four-seamer is woeful, and his sinker's 52.7% rate isn't high enough to reliably set up his secondary offerings. Opposing batters hit .302 with a .460 slugging percentage against the sinker and .343 with a .598 SLG against the fastball, so it's not like they offer contact suppression either.

Thankfully, Mike Minor and Lance Lynn were once similar players, with standout offerings amidst a pool of mediocrity. The Rangers helped both develop into reliable fantasy assets. Furthermore, the Rangers were a much better defensive unit in 2019 (-2 Outs Above Average as a team) than the Twins (-20), suggesting that Gibson will benefit from superior defensive support.

If you get the Gibson from the last couple of years, you'll have a volume arm who should easily return a profit on a modest draft day investment. If the Rangers can help Gibson rack up the K's with his secondary pitches, you're talking about league-winning profit potential. Quite frankly, investments this good shouldn't be available once 200 -- let alone 300 -- players come off of the board.