Justin Smoak (1B, MIL) - Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

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OWNED IN: 14% of leagues

ANALYSIS: Justin Smoak is a big winner thanks to the universal DH and the new inter-divisional schedule. He figures to see regular at-bats for a Brewers team that has a top-10 schedule, and nearly 70% of Smoak's games will be in parks that are a plus for left-handed pull power. Even though Smoak is a switch-hitter, he historically has more power from the left side. In fact, Smoak has never hit more than seven home runs in a season off of lefties. He also pulled the ball 50.7% of the time as a left-handed hitter last year, so he can certainly take advantage of those friendly stadiums.

While 2019 wasn't a great year for him, it's fair to expect stats closer to 2018 where he went .242/.350/.457 with 25 home runs, 77 RBI, and 67 runs in 147 games. Last year, Smoak had an xBA of .250 and a BABIP of .223, which is a major drop from the .285 or better he's registered in each of the last three years. Regression is coming with that average. On top of that, his BB% continues to grow, rising to 15.8% and giving him a K%-BB% of 5.4%, which is astronomically low for a player with his power.

Make no mistake, Smoak still has power. His average exit velocity of 90.3 was good for 68th in the league, his Sweet Spot% went up to 37.5% and he's always had strong barrel rates. If his batting average regresses to his career norms, in particular after his resurgence in 2017, there is no reason not to expect Smoak to be a valuable fantasy commodity in Miller Park and a great late-round pick for the CI spot.