Marco Gonzales (SP, SEA) - Week 3 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues

ROSTERED IN: 28% of leagues

ANALYSIS: With K/9 figures of 7.8, 6.5, and 6.8 over the last three seasons, Marco Gonzales doesn't have a lot of sex appeal on the mound, but since the start of 2018 he has been the picture of durability and control for the Seattle Mariners rotation. Last year, the Gonzaga product recorded 203.0 IP across 34 starts on his way to a 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a zoned-in 2.5 BB/9 (and for what it's worth, he picked up 16 wins for the Ms in the process).

This season, Gonzales had a rocky first start against the Astros, but immediately recovered with a superb outing against the Angels, bringing his 2020 totals to a 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a phenomenal BB/9 of 1.7 through 10.2 IP. His ground ball rate has steadily dropped from 44.9% to 39.4% since 2018, but his line drive rate has thankfully followed suit from 25.1% to 18.2% over the same period. What he lacks (greatly) in velocity, he makes up for with variety and accuracy: he mixes it up well between a fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup, and has upped his zone percentage this season to 49.7%.

The contact rate on Gonzales pitches since 2018 is high (80.7%-83.4%), he is just very good at rendering that contact ineffective, as evidenced by his hard contact rates on batted balls from 2018-2019 of 34% and 34.2%. His hard contact rate of 54.5% to kick off 2020 would be concerning for the kind of game he plays, but that is likely just the result of his shaky first start. With confidence that Marco Gonzales can keep the walk rate low, balls on the ground, and himself in the game for 6.0 IP or more, he's about as safe as a start that you can manage to find still available.