RADIO
Every year, when we reflect back on the NFL season that was, it's easy to have 20/20 vision and see the mistakes that you made in the draft. In 2019, guys like David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell went in the middle of the first round and didn't perform on par with their first-round billing. Johnson and Bell's ADP was too rich for where they were in their careers and if you drafted either, you were disappointed.
In 2019, Austin Ekeler went around the fourth or fifth round, which ended up being an absolute steal. At this same time last year, there was a big discussion about whether you should draft Melvin Gordon III or Austin Ekeler because Gordon was holding out and they had similar ADP. If you ended up taking Ekeler, you were ecstatic with that decision because he finished the year as an RB1. In similar fashion, there was a debate between which Steelers WR would replace Antonio Brown and receive those vacated targets. Folks were at odds between deciding whether James Washington or Donte Moncrief would break out, both of which were getting selected about 100 picks into the draft. It turned out that neither guy panned out, and Diontae Johnson, who actually went undrafted for the most part, emerged as the No. 2 receiving option in Pittsburgh. Once again this is hindsight, but safer players like Michael Gallup, Austin Hooper and Russell Wilson got drafted around the same spot Washington and Moncrief were picked in 2019.
I decided to look at the current ADP data going back to August 1, 2020 and tried to determine which players could be potential "ADP landmines" in 2020, similar to Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson and Melvin Gordon in 2019. As I was going through the ADP, a few players really stuck out to me as potential landmines that we may be talking about as "regrets" in January 2021. Keep in mind, just because I list a player as a landmine, doesn't mean I view him as a probable dud. Rather, I am identifying the inherent risk associated with drafting the player, and other potential routes to go with your draft if you choose to avoid that player.
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Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 2.02)
Austin Ekeler was a league-winner for many folks in 2019 playing in place of Melvin Gordon who held out to start the season. While Ekeler is coming off the best season of his young career, there are reasons to be skeptical of him heading into 2020. Even when Gordon was inactive in 2019, Ekeler only exceeded 12 carries in a game twice, logging just 132 carries on the entire season. Ekeler did his damage in the passing game, hauling in 92 balls for 993 yards and eight scores.
It's no secret that the Chargers new quarterback Tyrod Taylor doesn't really check the ball down a lot to running backs which is bad news for Ekeler. While Ekeler is explosive and should have a decent year, there are other people getting drafted around him that are simply safer.
Instead Take: Nick Chubb (ADP: 2.05) or Tyreek Hill (ADP: 2.04)
Nick Chubb's ADP has fallen a little as of late due to the presence of Kareem Hunt and his abilities in the passing attack. While Chubb isn't a huge asset in Cleveland's passing game because of Hunt, he's not a complete zero in that department either, and he did continue to carry the ball at least 15 times a game even after Hunt returned from suspension (except for the Week 17-loss to Cincinnati). The Browns anchored their offensive line with Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills this offseason which means Chubb could do even more damage on the ground, especially given the new coaching staff's desire to run the football.
If you end up taking a running back in the first round and you want to stack your lineup with a difference-making wide receiver, then Tyreek Hill is a solid option being drafted around the same spot as Ekeler. Hill plays in a great offensive system with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time who will be protected by a decent offensive line, so this makes sense.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 2.09)
In 2019, Lamar Jackson threw a touchdown pass on 9.0% of his throws during his MVP campaign. That touchdown rate simply cannot be sustained on a consistent basis, and year after year, quarterbacks with touchdown rates higher than 7.0% tend to have that number come back to earth a little the following season. Lamar Jackson will be a viable quarterback in fantasy football this season, and he should end the year somewhere inside the top-3 fantasy scorers at the position, but given the overall depth of quarterback and the other players who will likely still be on the board, it may make sense to pass on Jackson in 2020.
Instead Take: Chris Godwin (ADP: 2.10)
Chris Godwin is an absolute stud at wide receiver and he should continue to see a heavy volume of targets with Tom Brady playing quarterback for the Buccaneers in 2020. Godwin is a difference-maker in your fantasy lineup, and while Lamar Jackson is similarly a difference-maker, it's easier to find quarterbacks later in the draft than it is to find another wide receiver of Godwin's caliber. If you scroll down through the ADP, there's guys like Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay and Jonathan Taylor who should all have big years that are being drafted after Lamar Jackson.
If you get to a spot in your draft towards the middle of the third round and it seems like the studs are gone, and there are only guys with question marks left, such as James Conner (soft tissue injuries), Odell Beckham Jr. (injuries), Todd Gurley (arthritic knee), or Leonard Fournette (Jaguars are a mess), then it may make sense to pull the trigger on Jackson at that point.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 3.11)
Chris Carson has been great for the Seahawks over the last two seasons, averaging 4.5 yards-per-carry on his career while also contributing some in the passing game. While Carson has produced big-time numbers while running the ball in Seattle, he's also missed time due to injury in each year of his career, including a season-ending hip fracture in 2019. While reports on Carson's health are positive, drafting a safer option in the third round might make more sense here.
Instead Take: Jonathan Taylor (ADP: 3.09) or David Montgomery (ADP: 4.11)
The Colts traded up in April's draft to get Jonathan Taylor and as I outlined in my offensive line analysis earlier this week, having Colts running backs on your roster will be a good thing in 2020. Taylor is one of the best running back prospects to enter the league in a few years and it's only a matter of time before he takes the starting job from Marlon Mack. When that happens, I want to have Taylor on my team.
Wide receivers Adam Thielen and Robert Woods are also getting drafted right around the spot Carson is going. If you opt to pass on Carson in the 3rd for a wide receiver, you could always come back in the 4th and snag David Montgomery. The Bears offensive line isn't great which means they may pound the rock to cover up that deficiency. All reports on Montgomery are positive out of Bears camp, and he would make for a nice RB2.
*Edit: While writing this, news broke that David Montgomery was carted away from Bears practice today with a groin strain. While I am not panicking regarding the Montgomery injury until more information comes out, you need to monitor the severity of that injury, and if it's serious, you may want to pivot over to Cam Akers or Mark Ingram who are being drafted in the early fifth round.
Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 5.01)
In Raheem Mostert's breakout 2019 season, he had fewer than 10 carries in nine games. In Mostert's other games, he eclipsed 12 carries just three times. Mostert also wasn't very viable in the passing game, receiving just 22 targets on the season. While Mostert is explosive, averaging 5.64 yards-per-carry in 2019, capable of scoring on almost every play, he is likely to be boom-or-bust, and his current ADP may be a little rich for that level of inconsistent production.
Instead Take: Kareem Hunt (ADP: 5:05) or Cam Akers (ADP: 5.06)
Kareem Hunt never carried the ball more than 9 times in 2019 while sharing the backfield with Nick Chubb. While that may not change much in 2020, Hunt is very viable in PPR leagues, receiving more than five targets-per-game in 2019 even with Chubb in the lineup. Hunt may offer a similar week-to-week upside and frustration levels as Mostert, but the difference between them is if Chubb goes down, Hunt is a league-winner.
Cam Akers is another viable option here in place of Mostert. Right now, Akers is being drafted in the fifth round because he hasn't officially won the starting running back role for the Rams yet. Let's call it like it is, Akers is the best running back on that roster, he will be the starter sooner rather than later, and if he were labeled the starter today, his ADP would be in the third round.
Mark Ingram is another option to consider in the early fifth round, but the presence of J.K. Dobbins is a little concerning. If you already have decent running back depth when you're in the fifth round, two young, ascending wide receivers, D.J. Chark and Terry McLaurin are also getting drafted just after Mostert and worth consideration.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (ADP: 6.07)
I have been a fan of Brandin Cooks ever since I saw him in preseason action back in 2014. Cooks proceeded to put up four consecutive 1,000 yard seasons from 2015 through 2018, but his 2019-season was ruined by concussions. Given his history with head injuries, it makes drafting the Oregon State product seem risky even though he's played in 16 games four times in his six-year career.
Instead Take: Diontae Johnson (ADP: 6.05) or Darius Slayton (ADP: 7.11)
If Brandin Cooks' concussion history scares you, then you may want to draft Diontae Johnson instead. Johnson is a young, ascending wide receiver who flashed at times in 2019 with terrible quarterback play which will be a lot better in 2020 with the return of Ben Roethlisberger.
If Diontae Johnson off the board when you're up in the sixth round or you're aren't feeling Johnson because you're all-in on JuJu Smith-Schuster, consider taking Tyler Higbee at his current ADP of 6.08 and follow it up with a high-upside wide receiver such as Darius Slayton in the seventh round. I understand the jury is out on Higbee because Everett played more snaps prior to his injury, but Higbee demonstrated his ability, and if he can pick up where he left off in 2019 then this could be a league-winning pick. Cooks may be a little boom-or-bust for Houston, so if you follow this plan and draft Slayton instead, you are likely to get similar production to Cooks, as Slayton is somewhat boom-or-bust as well, serving as the Giants main deep threat.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 9.03)
Alexander Mattison is one of the few handcuffs in fantasy football that would clearly take over a full-time role if the starter goes down, and if you're a Dalvin Cook owner you absolutely need to have him on your team at his current ADP. However, there's a lot of people out there drafting Mattison (without rostering Cook) viewing him as a potential league-winner in the eighth or ninth round, but if Cook plays the entire season, it's kind of a wasted pick.
Instead Take: Zack Moss (ADP: 9.06)
Zack Moss will be playing behind a solid offensive line up in Buffalo and was drafted to handle the early-down work for the Bills. While Devin Singletary performed admirably in the tail end of 2019, he stands just 5'7" and weighs only 203 pounds which is concerning because he doesn't have the necessary frame to sustain the pounding a three-down running back would take through the duration of an NFL season.
Similar to Giovani Bernard, Singletary is capable of handling the load for a few games, but handling a full game of carries for an entire season is a different story. Buffalo wants to pound the rock, and Moss should be the guy in that backfield seeing 15 or more carries a game, while mixing into the passing game when needed. At his current ADP, Moss could be a league-winner, but he will also have a consistent role throughout the entire season, which is something Alexander Mattison doesn't have absent a Dalvin Cook injury.
Rob Gronkowski (ADP: 11.05)
Reports on Rob Gronkowski out of Tampa Bay have been glowing, but given the baggage associated with drafting Gronk, you have to ask yourself if that's something you want to deal with. Gronk may not even lead the Buccaneers in snaps in 2020, he has a lengthy injury history and I will remain skeptical of his return until I see him actually play football again.
Instead Take: T.J. Hockenson (ADP: 11.06) or Jalen Reagor (ADP: 11.07)
Second-year tight end T.J. Hockenson is going just after Gronk in drafts and he has serious breakout potential playing in a Lions offense that will surely air the ball out in 2020. Hockenson is a young, ascending player, and it makes more sense to find the next dominant pass-catching tight end rather than chase a guy that peaked several years ago in Gronk.
If you hold off on tight end and opt to go with a guy like Jalen Reagor in the 11th round, who figures to start at wide receiver for the Eagles, another young and ascending tight end, Chris Herndon (ADP: 12.11) should be on the board in the 12th round. Herndon is a great option, especially given his athletic ability and developing chemistry with Sam Darnold.
Sony Michel, New England (ADP: 11.11)
In 2019, Sony Michel scored seven touchdowns and three of them came in one game against the New York Jets. Michel also failed to have a single 100-yard rushing game in 2019, while logging less than 50 yards from scrimmage in seven contests. Does that sound like a running back you want on your fantasy team? My answer is no, especially not with other viable options that should still be on your board where Michel is being drafted.
Instead Take: Breshad Perriman (ADP: 12.02) or Preston Williams (ADP: 12.03)
Things still need to shake out a little bit with Sony Michel, but at this point he has the potential of being a wasted pick in the 11th round of fantasy drafts because he's still recovering from a foot injury. Damien Harris has an ADP of 13.01 for the month of August, but going back just one week his ADP is 11.08, which means he's gaining momentum quickly, and Michel is fading quickly.
While Breshad Perriman and Preston Williams aren't ideal fantasy starters, they will serve as valuable depth down the road, and with Damien Harris ascending, it makes more sense to have him on your squad rather than the oft-injured Sony Michel, it just makes sense.
Conclusion
In summary, we learn lessons about our drafts at the conclusion of each season. All of the aforementioned players identified as potential ADP landmines could have great seasons, but at the same time, you need to be wary of drafting them because in doing so, you may be bypassing more consistent producers. At the end of the day, it's your decision and you need to draft based on the level of risk you are willing to accept on your fantasy football team.
Good luck in 2020! Follow me on Twitter @coachriggall and feel free to ask your NFL questions.
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