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Welcome to the final edition of Friday Night MLB Monkey Knife Fight! We have hit some solid props along the way this season and hopefully have a couple more left in the tank for tonight.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, September 25th presents a big slate of games to choose from. We can look to attack the Pirates at Indians and Cubs at White Sox.
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Pirates @ Indians: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Carlos Carrasco more than 6.5 strikeouts and Mitch Keller less than 5.5 strikeouts
Carrasco should be able to get over this total vs. the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh has been striking out at a clip of 27.1% vs. right-handed pitching over the previous two weeks, which ranks second-worst in baseball. They are also only posting a wRC+ of 58, which is third-worst in baseball over that span. The bottom line is that the Pirates have been awful vs. righties over the past two weeks and Carrasco just managed to strike out a similarly bad Tigers team 11 times in his most recent start.
Keller has only reached this total once in 2020 and he barely got over it with six strikeouts vs. a Cardinals team that is striking out at a rate of 28.8% vs. righties over the previous two weeks, which is third-worst in baseball. The Indians are a much taller task for Keller as they are only striking out at a rate of 24.2%. The Indians have the 10th-best BB rate vs. righties over the past two weeks with a rate of 9.9% and Keller has struggled in that department by allowing 10 BB in just over 18 IP. It is not a good matchup for Keller tonight.
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More or Less Contest: Ceasar Hernandez more than 1.5 hits/walks
Cesar Hernandez more than 1.5 hits/ walks- Hernandez has been the most consistent hitter on the Indians and has also been hot as of late. Over the past two weeks, Hernandez is slashing .375/.412/.521. He has also reached this total in six of his previous 10 games. He is also hitting better at home in 2020 and hitting right-handers better as well. He checks all the boxes to go over on this prop.
Cubs @ White Sox: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Yu Darvish more than 7.5 strikeouts and Dylan Cease more than 4.5 strikeouts
Darvish is getting the White Sox at the right time and should be able to get over the total. He has struck out at least 8 in five of his last six starts and just missed the total by one strikeout in the other game. He is facing a White Sox team that is currently striking out at a rate of 27.9% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which is ranked sixth-worst in baseball. The White Sox are also only walking at a clip of 6.9%, so Darvish should be a solid more than pick here.
Dylan Cease has been a bit of a bugaboo for me as it pertains to strikeouts props in 2020. That being said, he is in a good spot for this game as the Cubs are in a free fall currently. Over the previous two weeks, the Cubs are posting a wRC+ of just 58 vs. right-handed pitching, which is ranked fourth-worst in the league. They are also striking out at a rate of 26%, which has them ranked 13th-worst in the league. Cease also struck out five Cubs the last time he faced them on 8/23. Cease is also posting a 1.77 ERA at home, so there could be plenty of opportunity for him to go a bit deeper into the game.
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