EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 4: English Premier League

4 years ago by Jamie Steed

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The English Premier kicked off again in September, barely a month after last season finished late due to the Covid-19 pandemic, teams are back playing in empty stadiums. As we did after the EPL restart last season, we're going to look at the weekly schedule and make some betting picks for each Matchweek.

Picks total - 0 out of 0
Parlays - 0 out of 0

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take into consideration these things before you place any bet. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

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Saturday, October 03rd, 2020

Manchester City @ Leeds United - 12:30 pm ET

Manchester City was humiliated at home last weekend, suffering a 5-2 loss against Leicester City with three of the goals coming from the penalty spot. They had serious question marks over their defense coming into the season and are still missing all-time top scorer Sergio Aguero and while they have scored five goals in their two league games, the six conceded are alarming.

Leeds United gave champions Liverpool an almighty fright on the opening weekend only losing 4-3, a scoreline they then managed to beat Fulham with the following week. A local derby against Sheffield United saw Leeds come away with a battling 1-0 victory thanks to a late goal and did show us that Leeds are able to keep things tight defensively.

These two teams have combined for 26 goals in five games and I expect more of the same again. Leeds high paced pressing game they startled Liverpool with can give Manchester City issues too, but they have players who can exploit it so I expect the trend of goals galore to continue.

Manchester City 13th - 3 pts
Leeds United 7th - 6 pts

Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 2 Manchester City (Pinnacle odds +1350)

Betting Pick:

Both teams to score, over 2.5 goals

Team Props - Both to Score/Total Goals: Yes & over 2.5 @ -118 (Pinnacle)

Sunday, October 04th, 2020

West Brom @ Southampton - 7:00 am ET

Speaking of goals galore, West Brom has conceded 11 in their first three games of the league season and are heading into this game having yielded a 3-goal lead to Chelsea last week; that 3-3 draw is their only point so far. It's hardly a surprise for a newly promoted team to struggle but they will need to tighten things up defensively and quickly if they are to avoid relegation.

Southampton picked up their first points of the season with a 1-0 victory at Burnley last weekend which was a much-needed performance after a 5-2 defeat at home to Tottenham the week prior, a game they dominated for 45 minutes and should have been well in front before conceding an equalizer and then falling apart. Danny Ings has scored 3 of their 4 goals so far this season as he picks up from last season's record tally of 22 goals.

It's hard to see how West Brom can prevent Southampton (and Ings in particular) from scoring and having conceded three or more in each league game so far, we should see more of the same.

West Brom 17th - 1 pts
Southampton 15th - 3 pts

Score prediction: Southampton 3 - 1 West Brom (Draftkings odds +1150)

Betting Pick:

Single-game parlay - Southampton to win & over 1.5 goals @ +105 (Draftkings)

Fulham @ Wolves - 9:00 am ET

Fuham has found things tough going after their promotion too with three defeats in three games and ten goals conceded (at least three in each game). The Achilles Heal for Fulham has been slow starts as they've conceded inside the first ten minutes in all three games so far. Their style of play hasn't been effective yet and likely won't be if they continue to go behind early. Their defensive play suggests that even if they make it through the opening 10 minutes without letting in a goal, it won't be long after until they're picking the ball out their net.

Wolves suffered a shock 4-0 defeat at West Ham on Sunday night to make it two defeats from two games following an opening day win against Sheffield United. Wolves did start last season slowly too with their first win coming in Matchweek 7 before eventually finishing the season in seventh place. They have lost key player Diego Jota after his transfer to Liverpool but have invested in new recruits and are still spearheaded by star striker Raul Jimenez.

Fulham has looked so poor defensively, even a stuttering Wolves team should have more than enough quality to see them off and I expect a reaction from Wolves after their poor showing at West Ham last weekend.

Fulham 20th - 0 pts
Wolves 16th - 3 pts

Score prediction: Wolves 3 - 0 Fulham (Pinnacle odds +975)

Betting Pick: