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Welcome to the Wildest Wild Card Round MLB has ever seen. The next week (and month) should be a very exciting one in MLB and we here at Rotoballer will provide some MKF picks to get you through the postseason.
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The game we are going to focus on today is the Marlins at Cubs.
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Marlins @ Cubs: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Yu Darvish more than 7.5 strikeouts and Sixto Sanchez more than 3.5 strikeouts
Yu Darvish has been excellent in 2020 and now gets an opportunity to pitch in the postseason for the first time since the 2017 World Series where he struggled mightily in Game 7 for the Dodgers. I think he comes into this game with a chip on his shoulder and gets over the total here. He has reached this total in six of his 11 starts this season and just narrowly missed it in three other starts. The Marlins are striking out at a rate of nearly 24% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks and are also only posting a wRC+ of just 62, so Darvish should be in line for a solid day.
Sixto Sanchez has burst onto the scene in 2020 and will be making his postseason debut today. He has a wicked sinker ball and has struck out 33 batters across his first 39 IP. He will be going up against a Cubs team that has been striking out at a clip of 25.4% vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which ranks 15th-worst in the league. They also are only posting a 72 wRC+ mark vs. righties and have a mediocre 9.0% walk rate vs. them over the previous two weeks. Sixto should hopefully be able to take advantage of this and last long enough to get over the hump with four strikeouts.
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More or Less Contest: Yu Darvish more than 17.5 pitching outs and Sixto Sanchez more than 14.5 pitching outs
Yu Darvish more than 17.5 pitching outs: The pitching outs prop is a new prop for the postseason and adds a nice little wrinkle to the more or less slate. This prop essentially amounts to Darvish making it through six IP and I think he is capable of doing that today. As mentioned above, the Marlins are only posting a wRC+ of 62 vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which ranks dead-last in baseball. They are also posting just a 6.8% walk rate over that same span, which is ranked sixth-worst. This tells me that Darvish should be able to navigate six innings, and he has also gone at least six in every start but his first this season.
Sixto Sanchez more than 14.5 pitching outs: Sanchez needs to make it through five IP in this game and I think he will be able to hit the mark. He has reached this total in five of his seven starts this season. The Cubs, as aforementioned, have not hit righties well over the previous two weeks and that is a big reason I like this over. The Marlins also have a bottom-five pen in terms of ERA and WHIP, so as long as Sixto does not get killed in the early going, they may be more likely to stick with him, especially since this is not an elimination game for the Marlins.
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