RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! In a bizarre trade, Draftkings will now group all three round-robin games, while Fanduel, who started with that format, will now break them all up. So my apologies to FanDuelies, or whatever you call yourselves, but like a free agent in the off-season, we've gotta go where the money is. I'll be focusing on the DraftKings format, but I'll touch on all the matches so the info will be relevant to FanDuelers(?) as well.
Group B is up today, and that's going to leave us with the one big question which goes 3-0 today JDG or DWG? My fingernails can hardly stand another day like yesterday, and I was sweating out that final fight in the SNG/G2 tiebreaker without a dollar on the line. That's what I've been not so secretly hoping to turn you all into all along, closeted or even better open-faced league of legends fans. I hope you continue to join me for the rest of Worlds even after the DFS slates dry up, and again in the spring when we're back and hopefully better than ever.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 4:00 AM ET on Friday, October 9th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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JDG (LPL) -450. vs Rogue; -800 vs. PSG Talon; +140 vs. DWG
Given the format change from DraftKings, the way I'm going to handle these breakdowns is like this: I'll list the teams in order of how I think they finish out the day. Then in the critical matchup of the day, in this case, JDG vs. DWG, I'll argue each side under each team's heading.
The match to decide if Group B is over and done, or we get a tiebreaker match to decide which of our two title contenders takes first.
In the first match between JDG and DWG, we saw a mid laneJayce come through for Yagao. That was his first Jayce game of the year, and it looked like it. DWG seemed to have Kanavi well scouted, resulting in a quick death level one that stunted JDG. A miss in the draft and a poor level one led to a DWG snowball that left JDG looking for desperation plays that they just missed on.
We will get JDG on the blue side of the map with the first pick in game two, and JDG is 77% on the blue side this summer, and DWG are 76% on the red side. Much preferable from a JDG perspective to their unbeaten record on the blue side. DWG bot lane is also a strength in the matchup, and as long as JDG pulls out a different start than game one with the lost level one, I think they can overcome the DWG juggernaut.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG
- LvMao - SUP
- Loken - ADC
- Zoom - TOP
Damwon Gaming (LCK) -1400 vs. PSG Talon; -800 vs. Rogue; -195 vs. JDG
Damwon dispatched JDG with the quickness in typical dominating DWG fashion in their first meeting. They followed that up with another easy win over Rogue, albeit in a more map oriented game with fewer kills. DWG was caught a bit off guard by PSG Talon in their third game, and we saw PSG match them blow for blow-up til about 10 minutes in the game. PSG then botched a dragon fight and began to see their early pressure disappear. Damwon accelerated after that, and soon, the game was out of reach.
Getting down to business, we've got Damwon with the best early game stats we've seen all year, and all they need to do is continue to do just that. Win early, win lane, win big, and never stop. They had an average of 3,055 gold lead at fifteen minutes in the LCK during the summer split, and that's insane. Canyon has been running a clinic in the jungle, allowing Nuguri and Showmaker the ability to pop off.
DWG's only downsides are they "only" have a 76% win rate on the red side, and Loken and LvMao can punish Ghost and Beryl if they are allowed to do so. I think we see DWG go 2-1 tomorrow, beating Rogue and PSG easily, but falling to JDG in the final match of the day. That will set up a tiebreaker match, and that one I think DWG does win because they will be able to retreat to the blue side's safety.
Despite my super serious crush on JDG, based on what we saw in the first game and the entire summer split, it's pretty reasonable to assume that DWG blow this game open right away again, and they, not JDG are the 3-0 team on the day. Both teams will be heavily owned, and their showdown in the final game of the day likely will make or break everyone's roster today.
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG
- Showmaker - ADC
- Nuguri - TOP
- Ghost - ADC
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Rogue (LEC) +290 vs. JDG; +450 vs. DWG; -210 vs. PSG Talon
Rogue has struggled to translate their success in the LEC into anything on the world's stage, but given their group's draw, is anyone surprised? Rogue was the best LEC team in the early game in the summer split, leading the league in first blood, first turret, first three turrets, and gold differential at 15 minutes. They have a negative gold differential at 15 in the group stage with no turrets or heralds versus the LPL and LCK representatives. This draw truly is a group of death, and Rogue are victims of circumstance, and they should go 1-2 today. I don't see them having a route to victory over either DWG or JDG. They may be able to get over on JDG with an early lead into a snowball, but JDG is so good at accelerating in the mid-game that I don't think that Rogue will be able to hold any lead they generate. In the first match between the two, we saw Rogue up one kill at the fifteen-minute mark, but JDG up 2k total gold and a massive farm lead on Loken's Caitlynn.
Rogue get DWG on the blue side, so that matchup is already over, leaving their only win to be over PSG. Finn has had a marked increase in his time at worlds, and against Talon he might be an excellent choice on FanDuel. On DraftKings I won't have much of them, perhaps a team slot punt if they dominate PSG and start well versus JDG, the team could score well on the cheap.
Top Rogue Plays:
- Finn - TOP
- Inspired - JNG
- Larssen - MID
- Rogue Team
PSG Talon (PCS) +575 vs. DWG; +450 vs. JDG; +150 vs. Rogue
Poor PSG they worked so hard to get through the play-ins only to get slotted into this group of death. The bright side was a close loss to DWG, in which they held an early lead. In their other two matches, we've seen PSG get smashed in the early game, and it has been impossible for them to get back into those matches. In the PCS, PSG was the number one team in CSM, but now against the elevated competition at worlds, they have fallen to 12th of 16 teams. They also have deficient first blood, first turret rates in their home region, and even that has disintegrated at worlds. They have yet to claim first blood, first turret, or a rift herald on the main stage. Their best chance to get a win today will likely be versus Rogue, but I still don't see it. Rogue has been good enough early that I'm not concerned. PSG goes 0-3 today, and it won't be close. PSG have given up only 14.6 deaths in their losses on the season, and only a kill or two more than that at worlds. If you're looking to target against them on FD it might be safe, but I don't think it offers the upside you might expect.
Top PSG Plays:
- Fade, I don't see them picking up any wins today.
Summary
- TLDR - I'm a clown, but JDG 3-0, DWG 2-1, Rogue 1-2, and PSG 0-3. Unlike yesterday where it was quite conceivable even mathematically probably as I have now been informed that multiple teams would finish 2-1, today I think we're all pretty sure someone is going 3-0.
- Depending on which side you fall will make the difference in lineups. Rogue team slot could make for a nice punt play with their ability to hang early and dominate objectives in a win over PSG. If they get a lead over JDG early, they could score well enough to get you to a better captain even in a loss.
- It was a nerve-wracking experience watching those final two games of SNG and G2, but get ready for plenty more of that as the rest of the groups finish up. The stakes and pressure will only get higher as the knockouts approach!
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