RADIO
It's NBA Draft Week! While there is a ton of hype about the incoming rookies (check out all of our NBA Draft analysis here) we still need to take some time to reflect on the 2019-2020 season. We have the shortest NBA offseason EVER this year and it's already time to do some evaluation of the longest season ever as we prepare for the 2021 season.
The long layoff from March to July almost made like the bubble games and playoffs were a separate season, but we have nearly a full season of data for most players to crunch now. It's time to reflect on the 2019-2020 season to see who were our "risers" and "fallers" in the rankings. You can check out my "risers" here.
In this article, I will feature some of the players who took the biggest drops in their output from 2018-2019 to the 2019-2020 seasons. I am using Basketball Monster's 9-category rankings for my comparisons here and obviously, there are some guys here who are better suited for points leagues or rotisserie leagues (or who have more value if you punt categories).
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including NBA Writer of the Year, Best NFL Series, MLB Series, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!We saw a lot of younger players in the risers article and it's only to be expected that we will see some older players in our "fallers" in this article or players who had their production fall off with their new teams.
Fading Stars = Don't Reach For Them Too Early
Paul George - SF/PF, Los Angelas Clippers
2019 - 3rd, 2020 - 20th
PG-13's first season in Clipper Land was solid (21.5-5.7-3.9) but nowhere close to what he did in OKC the year before (28-8.2-4.1). Obviously, being the sidekick to Kawhi Leonard had a lot to do with that but he also played the fewest minutes (29.6) of his career since 2011-2012 as the Clippers tried to keep him and Kawhi healthy for the playoffs.
George is still a solid fantasy player but he's not likely to be an elite player in L.A. The drop in his statistical volume from fewer minutes and having to play alongside Kawhi are too significant to be made up with any increases in efficiency that could result. And the reality is that he was not more efficient than he was in 2019 as he shot about the same percentage from the field, had the same amount of turnovers, and was only slightly better from behind the three-point line.
He will have some monster games this season on the days that Kawhi rests, but it's hard to see him as a top-10 fantasy player without a major Kawhi injury.
Kemba Walker - PG, Boston Celtics
2019 - 20th, 2020 - 45th
Kemba's first year with Boston was a mixed bag of results. He seemed to fit in well with other young Celtics' players, but also only played 56 games due to some injuries - this after playing all 82 games in 2018-2019 for Charlotte and setting a career-high in scoring at 25.6 points per game.
His stats last season dipped pretty much across the board as far as volume goes as he played only 31 minutes per game compared to the 34-35 minutes a game he averaged in Charlotte. At 20-3.9-4.8 he still posted some quality numbers, but his assists dipped below five per game for the first time since his rookie season.
Kemba isn't a traditional pass-first point guard, so you're not all that worried about the assists. Statistically, he profiles more like a combo guard who's biggest contributions are in points, threes, and FT%. Just make sure you understand that if you draft him, you're expectations are tempered as the Celtics have capable playmakers in Gordon Hayward and Jayson Tatum as well as other guards and wings who need the ball in their hands (Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown). As long as he's in Boston, he's not going to be the alpha-Kemba we saw when he was in Charlotte - proceed with caution.
Andre Drummond - C, Cleveland Cavaliers
2019 - 18th, 2020 - 28th
Drummond got dealt to Cleveland at the deadline from Detroit and went from one hapless team in full rebuild to another. The change of scenery didn't impact his numbers on a per-minute basis, but he did see a drop in overall production as his minutes went from 33.8 to 28.1 per game in the eight games he played with the Cavs.
Drummond is a dinosaur in today's NBA as he's a completely one-dimensional player who relies on rebounds and points in the paint for the vast majority of his value. He just accepted his player option for this season, but depending on what Cleveland does in the draft his future with the team is very much in question. If he's not playing his normal 33-34 minutes a game, though, he's not going to post the big numbers we are used to seeing (17 points and 15 rebounds per game his last two years in Detroit).
If you're punting FT%, he's still a solid target as his rank rises to 5th overall when you take away his 58% shooting from the charity stripe on almost six attempts per game. Just don't overpay for a player who only helps you in a few categories unless you are 100% committed to a punt FT% strategy.
UPDATE: The Cavs drafted a wing player in Isaac Okoro, not a big man, so Drummond's role looks secure but Larry Nance is still going to push for 20-25 minutes off the bench at PF and C.
Biggest Drops, Don't Draft on Name Alone
Al Horford - PF/C, Philadelphia 76ers
2019 - 29th, 2020 - 68th
Big Al saw a decrease in his numbers in his first season in Philly, which had to be somewhat expected as he had to play alongside usage monster Joel Embiid. But the biggest reason for this drop has less to do with the overall volume of stats and more to do with a decreased efficiency in Horford's game and probably has to do with him slowing down a bit in his age 33 season.
When you look at the raw numbers, the dip wasn't all that bad.
2018-2019 with Boston: 13.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.2 blocks/steals
2019-2020 with Philly: 11.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.7 blocks/steals
He's still a really versatile player who can help out in multiple categories, but the dip in scoring and defensive stats are the most notable there. The biggest issue, though, is that playing alongside Embiid he took a lot more shots from the perimeter which really hurt his FG% (dropped from 53.5% to 45% last year). He did hit more threes (1.5 up from 1.1. in Boston) but also shot worse on two-pointers than he did in 2018-2019.
I am a fan of Big Al and his all-around game, but his days as an elite fantasy player are long behind him. He makes for a great guy to have on the end of your bench, but you shouldn't be taking him before the late rounds of drafts this season.
UPDATE: Horford was traded on draft night to the OKC Thunder for Danny Green and Terrance Ferguson. He could bounce back in OKC, especially if they deal Steven Adams in the coming weeks so stay tuned. This trade definitely helps his stock a bit and getting out of Philadelphia is a good thing.
Mike Conley - PG, Utah Jazz
2019 - 27th, 2020 - 176th
Oh, how the mighty have fallen! Look at that drop! Conley's first season in Utah was marred by injuries that saw him play only 47 regular-season games. Conley was a nice addition for this Utah team in a real-life basketball sense as the Jazz had a nice run in the playoffs but lost in seven games to the Nuggets, but his fantasy value plummeted.
Conley has long been a solid fantasy player for points, assists, FT%, and steals and a guard who won't hurt you that badly in FG%. But his 2019-2020 output was the lowest of his career in points (since 2012 with only 14.4), assists (since 2009 with only 4.4), and steals (since 2008 with only .8) as he played only 29 minutes per game.
Donovan Mitchell is the alpha on this team and is going to get his points first and cut into Conley's assist numbers. Joe Ingles is a solid "point-forward" who also has the ball in his hands a lot. If Conley is healthy, he is going to put up some serviceable numbers for deeper leagues but he's just not someone you even need to bother with in shallow leagues unless there's an injury to Mitchell this year.
Eric Bledsoe - PG, New Orleans Pelicans
2019 - 43rd, 2020 - 68th
So Bledsoe was just dealt from Milwaukee to New Orleans only a few days ago, which could change things for him, but I am skeptical as to whether it really increases his value at all. He just finished his age-30 season with averages of 14.9-4.6-5.4 and a career-low in steals of only .9 per game. Bledsoe has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career and has seen his minutes dip from 31 to 29 to 27 per game over the last three years.
Perhaps his usage could increase in New Orleans, but he's most likely heading for a timeshare with Lonzo Ball in the backcourt. He's still going to be a boost in FG% and counting stats if he gets minutes, but his days of being a top-50 fantasy player are clearly numbered. I'll be curious to see what the Pelicans do with them (as they do play a very fantasy-friendly style of basketball) but I am not optimistic we see a bounce-back type of year from him in 2020-2021.
UPDATE: The Pelicans drafted Kira Lewis - yet another point guard which only further muddies things in their backcourt with Lonzo Ball, George Hill, Bledsoe, and Lewis all playing the same position basically. Bledsoe's stay in New Orleans could be short-lived, stay tuned.
Marc Gasol - C, Toronto Raptors
2019 - 46th, 2020 - 122nd
Paul Millsap - PF, Denver Nuggets
2019 - 81st, 2020 - 113th
I am pairing these two up for my final group here. If it was still 2017, you might take these two in rounds 2 and 3 of your fantasy basketball drafts but father time catches up with all of us at some point, right?
Both Gasol and Millsap have been excellent fantasy assets during their careers but have both seen diminished roles in the last few seasons on new teams. Gasol came over to Toronto and was used in a timeshare at center with Serge Ibaka, while Millsap has seen his minutes trend down with Denver the last two years after posting massive numbers in Atlanta and Utah before that.
Both these guys have great fantasy skill sets, but the lack of minutes and decreased usage that they're seeing make them deep league only type players this year.
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