EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 9: English Premier League

Just when our luck appears to be turning, we get burned. Two weeks ago, we get the pick in game one correct with an injury-time winner and still needed Fulham to miss a 97th-minute penalty, which they duly did with one of the worst penalty kicks of all time. Game two pick banked as well, along with the +800 correct score after Manchester City's Kevin de Bruyne missed a penalty. Then in game three, Arsenal completely wet the bed, putting in arguably their worst performance of the calendar year in losing 3-0 at home to Aston Villa. We've now had a week off due to the international games which tend to throw some spanners into teams' planning. We're also seeing some players getting ruled out through Covid-19 diagnoses while away with their national teams, so things are getting a bit more unpredictable. Regardless, we're ready to make some money in week 9 of the season.

• Picks total - 6 out of 15
• Parlays - 0 out of 5
• Correct scores - 3 out of 15

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take into consideration these things before you place any bet. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

Saturday, November 21st, 2020

Chelsea @ Newcastle United - 7:30 am ET

Chelsea will have been more impacted by the international break than most other teams but they have the squad depth to cope with any niggling injuries suffered during this period. That's something they'll need to utilize with nine games in the next four weeks. Chelsea is on course for qualifying from their Champions League group and have kept five clean sheets in six games in all competitions since starting new goalkeeper Edouard Mendy. They've certainly had no issues scoring, with at least three goals in six of their eight league games. The only two league games they didn't manage to score at least three were the 2-0 defeat against champions Liverpool and a 0-0 draw away at Manchester United.

Newcastle continues to be consistently inconsistent as they have yet to have back-to-back same results in the league. Having lost last time out, it means that sequence will need to end if we are to bag out pick here. Newcastle hasn't kept a clean sheet since their season opener, conceding 13 goals in their last seven league games. They did invest in their forward line during the offseason and that has shown with ten goals scored in their eight games so far, something which took 12 games to do last season.

While I do think Newcastle has enough in attack to hurt Chelsea, the away team has improved defensively in recent weeks and they continue to score plenty. Newcastle has defensive frailties and I don't foresee anything changing in either team's fortunes this week. I expect Chelsea to win and continue their form in front of goal. If you want bigger odds, you can take Chelsea to win and both teams to score at +220 (Pinnacle).

Newcastle United 13th - 11 pts
Chelsea 5th - 15 pts

Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 3 Chelsea (Pinnacle odds +1150)

Betting Pick:

• Winner/Total Goals - Chelsea & over 2.5 total goals @ +120 (Pinnacle)

Sunday, November 22nd, 2020

West Ham United @ Sheffield United - 9:00 am ET

Since their incredible comeback at Tottenham (where West Ham came from 3-0 down with ten minutes to go to draw), they've managed just three goals in three games, scoring one in each. Granted, two of those games was against Liverpool and Manchester City, but they needed an injury-time goal to break the deadlock at home to Fulham and without their main goal threat Michail Antonio (likely to miss this week's game through injury too), finding where they get a goal from isn't easy. Given the opposition they've faced this season, only conceding ten goals isn't bad, and other than the first half at Tottenham, they have looked pretty solid at the back.

For Sheffield United, last season's successful return to the Premier League looks like a long time ago as they currently sit at the foot of the table with just one point to show for their efforts. They're coming off a run of three straight defeats against teams who finished in the top-4 last season and after failing to find the net in their first three games of the season, has scored in four of their last five games. But the four total goals scored is the second-fewest in the league this season and I've yet to see anything from that to suggest their goal-scoring struggles will end soon.

Although I reckon the game ends 0-0, a note to never bet on 0-0 as the correct score. Instead, bet on there to be no goalscorer which gives the same odds but means if there is just an own goal(s) scored, it still pays out.

Sheffield United 20th - 1 pts
West Ham United 12th - 11 pts

Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 - 0 West Ham United (Pinnacle odds +825). Use "No Goalscorer" bet at the same odds instead.

Betting Pick:

•    Both to score/Total goals - No & Under 2.5 @ +130 (Pinnacle)

Leicester City @ Liverpool - 2:15 pm ET

Arguably the highlight of this weekend's fixtures is reigning champions Liverpool hosting league leaders Leicester City. Liverpool escaped with a point away at Manchester City last time out thanks to a missed penalty and will be without top scorer Mo Salah who tested positive for Covid-19 this week. The recent form of $50 million Summer signing Diego Jota should soften the impact of Salah's absence and Liverpool has won all four home games in the league this season, scoring eleven in the process. They haven't managed to keep a clean sheet at home this season and continue to have defensive problems with key players set for long-term injury absences.

Leicester enters this game on the back of three straight league games which has seen them jump to the top of the league. They rode their luck against Arsenal and needed a very contentious decision to go their way, but then brushed aside an impressive Leeds United side and ground out a tough win against Wolves. These last three games have demonstrated Leicester can get wins playing different ways, emphasized by being tied-1st in goals allowed and tied-3rd in goals scored.

I give Liverpool the edge and you likely won't find them with better odds to win at home than the current -106 you can get on them now. But Leicester is probably the one side in the league who are currently best equipped to spring an upset against them. One big difference between the two sides is the yellow cards they've received this season. Leicester's 19 bookings is the most in the league and Liverpool's seven is tied for the fewest so this is an area we can exploit here. The referee for this game is Chris Kavanagh who has issued the second-most bookings per game (four) so isn't averse to brandishing a yellow card or two.

Liverpool 3rd - 17 pts
Leicester City 1st - 18 pts

Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 1 Leicester City (Pinnacle odds +800)

Betting Pick:

•    Handicap most bookings - Leicester City -0.5 @ +110 (Pinnacle)

Parlay

• All three picks @ +1063

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!

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