RADIO
The moment has finally arrived. It's time to unleash that playoff roster you built by studying strength-of-schedule and pulling off blockbuster moves at the trade deadline. Of course, if you've followed our excellent RotoBaller team all season you are no-doubt well-equipped to breeze through your first-round matchup.
That's because we break down every fantasy football matchup and keep you up to date on the top waiver-wire pickups each week. With bye weeks officially concluded and no games appearing destined for a COVID-19-related rescheduling (fingers crossed), managers should be near full-strength entering the playoffs.
While having a full squad available is surely a benefit, it can also be a burden to managers forced to tinker with multiple intriguing options. Do you ride the hot hand or stay loyal to those who helped bring you to this point? Difficult decisions will be made this week and sitting the below-listed players might just help you punch your ticket to the semi-finals. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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DeAndre Hopkins vs. New York Giants
The great DeAndre Hopkins has been much more up-and-down than most realize. He has actually finished as the WR39 or lower in five of his last nine games and the WR40 or lower in three of his last five. He’s also been held to fewer than 56 receiving yards in four of his last five outings. He is currently banged up and so is his quarterback. Hopkins has missed practice this week with neck and back injuries. While he is expected to play, any lingering issue would add a further complication to consider alongside Kyler Murray’s troublesome shoulder. Murray has been noticeably affected by the injury to his throwing shoulder, as evident by his finishes of QB26 and QB19 the past two weeks after finishing inside the top-eleven every week prior.
The quietly surging Giants have shut down opposing passing attacks lately. Quarterbacks have averaged just twelve fantasy points per game against the Giants over the past four weeks and wide receivers have averaged 16.9. Both of those marks would easily be the best in the league if held over a full season. DK Metcalf was the WR43 against New York last week and Tyler Lockett was the WR47. The Giants are fifth against quarterbacks on the season, which is worrying considering Murray has thrown for only 172 yards per game over his last two, after averaging 264 per game prior to that. A productive fantasy outing for Hopkins will necessitate a touchdown in the case of limited yardage output and the Giants have allowed the eighth-fewest receiving scores on the season. The Giants also rank fourth in terms of touchdown percentage allowed, coughing up a score on just 3.7% of pass attempts. James Bradberry will shadow Hopkins, representing a tough but not unbeatable matchup. Nonetheless, Football Outsiders rank New York seventh in DVOA against number-one receivers. This matchup is clearly concerning, and while you can’t sit Hopkins this week or any week, he is not the confident high-end option managers are accustomed to.
Raheem Mostert vs. Washington Football Team
Raheem Mostert has played 40% and 44% of snaps since his return from injury. He saw fewer snaps than Jeff Wilson Jr. last week and saw his playing time reduced significantly when the 49ers were forced into pass-mode. Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman’s roles were extremely limited last game but while healthy they still pose a threat to steal a few touches. After receiving eighteen touches in his Week 12 return, Mostert’s workload dipped to ten touches last week against Buffalo, which serves as a season-low for the sporadically healthy running back.
Washington boasts as solid of a defensive front as any in the NFL and running backs who dare oppose them have not produced for fantasy managers in recent times. Rushers have scored a combined total of just 21.9 fantasy points against Washington over the past three weeks. Ezekiel Elliott managed an RB58 finish against this team two weeks ago and Giovani Bernard’s RB35 performance serves as the best showing of any running back versus Washington during that stretch. Washington allows only 16.4 points per game to the running back position on the season, ranking third in the league, so this is not a random hot streak. Only six running backs have finished inside the top-24 against this defense all year and only two have done so since Week 5. Washington ranks inside the top-ten in rushing yards allowed, yards per carry given up, and rushing touchdowns surrendered, and thus should be avoided with the seasons of fantasy managers on the line.
Miles Sanders vs. New Orleans Saints
Speaking of players to avoid, defensive players for the Saints and offensive players for the Eagles certainly qualify. The Saints are the stingiest defense to opposing running games regardless of which metric you cherry-pick. Whether it’s yards per carry, rushing scores allowed, or fantasy points conceded, New Orleans ranks first in all of it. They haven’t let up, either. In fact, the Saints have actually tightened things up even more over the last three weeks, allowing just 8.3 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, compared to their number-one mark of 14.0 for the season.
As for Miles Sanders on the other hand – oh how the mighty have fallen. Offseason hype had him going in the first round of drafts as a popular breakout candidate. While he does average 11.4 points per game for the season, that number has dwindled to 5.3 over the past three games and he now has to deal with a quarterback change in advance of an imposing matchup. Of extreme concern is the fact that Sanders has managed to catch as many as three passes only once since Week 3 and has done so only three times all year. Much of Sanders’ hype was built around the logic of his superior pass-catching ability, but the reality is he has caught more than three balls only once and has only twice surpassed nineteen receiving yards. At least he has sixteen carries for 46 scoreless yards over the past two weeks combined... Don’t get cute and bank on Jalen Hurts turning this offense around overnight. Sanders is a bust this week as he has been all season.
Austin Hooper vs. Baltimore Ravens
Austin Hooper appeared to be on a promising trajectory following a three-game stretch from Weeks 4-6 in which he accumulated 15 catches on 23 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game during that span, which would be the eighth-highest mark of any tight end in the currently dreadful tight end climate. Since then, however, Hooper has played in four contests, managing a combined effort of 8 catches on 11 targets for 81 receiving yards and a score. That meager showing has produced 4.5 points per game for Hooper’s fantasy managers, along with finishes of TE39, TE22, TE16, and TE33. Not exactly what managers had in mind.
Baltimore is not as unforgiving to tight ends as they are to other positions, ranking middle-of-the-pack at 10.2 fantasy points allowed per game. That number has dropped to 8.4 over the past five weeks, however, which would vault them into the top-ten if sustained over the course of the season. Only two tight ends have finished as a top-twelve option against the Ravens since way back in Week 3 and Hooper is unlikely to be the next.
Derek Carr vs. Indianapolis Colts
We have seen the good and the bad with Derek Carr the past two weeks. He was the QB35 in a horrific showing versus Atlanta before erupting as the QB1 last week against the Jets. Last week’s performance was more the result of the Jets’ ineptitude than anything else, however. A bewildering decision to all-out blitz on a last-ditch Hail Mary attempt resulted in a game-winning touchdown for the Raiders, costing Jets’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams his job in the process. Expect the Colts to provide a much stiffer test this week, one that should have fantasy managers streaming other options.
The Colts are fourth against fantasy quarterbacks, giving up only 16.2 points per game. Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill both finished as top-ten options in Weeks 11-12 against Indianapolis, but Deshaun Watson was held to a QB14 performance last week. Prior to that, the Colts had only given up one top-twelve quarterback finish in the first ten weeks of the season. Carr did perform well as the QB8 against the Chiefs in Week 11 but had not finished inside the top-twelve since Week 7 prior to that. Indianapolis also happens to be the second-toughest defensive matchup for the tight end position, limiting the upside for a quarterback who relies heavily on Darren Waller, as evident by his 200-yard game last week. The Colts are tenth in completion percentage against, eighth in passing yards allowed, and third in passing scores allowed. The combination of risky floor and limited ceiling should have managers benching last week’s top-performer.
DeVante Parker vs. Kansas City Chiefs
With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, DeVante Parker has averaged 11.3 points per game. With rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa slinging the rock, Parker has averaged just 8.2 points per game. Target-wise, Parker’s 6.6 looks per game pale in comparison to the 7.7 he was receiving from Fitzpatrick. The results of Miami’s quarterback switch have been devastating for fantasy managers, as Parker has finished above WR40 only once in Tua’s five starts. Tua just does not have eyes for Parker in the way that Fitzpatrick did. There is also less volume to go around for Dolphins’ receivers as a whole, as Tua has averaged just 178 passing yards per game. The fact that Tua has been held to only one touchdown pass in three of five starts does not provide much opportunity for Parker to bail GMs out with a score, either.
The Chiefs rank third against the wide receiver position in terms of fantasy points yielded but have been pretty up-and-down recently. That provides at least some level of optimism, as Tua did have his best game from a passing perspective last week. Still, Kansas City ranks inside or near the top-twelve of most defensive categories versus the pass despite constantly putting teams in pass-happy game scripts. The Chiefs rank eighth in completion percentage allowed, ninth in yards per attempt, 13th in passing yards surrendered, 11th in passing touchdowns, and fifth in quarterback rating allowed. Parker is not quite a must-bench, but this is not the matchup to force him into lineups for managers with decent alternatives.
Dallas Goedert vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are not as formidable against tight ends as other positions but still rank twelfth best, allowing 9.4 points per game. New Orleans has made every effort to improve that ranking lately, however. Over the past seven games, the Saints have given up just 2.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, by far the fewest in the NFL. Hayden Hurst managed one catch for nine yards against New Orleans last week after Noah Fant provided one catch for thirteen yards a week prior, albeit with a practice squad wide receiver attempting to play quarterback. Hurst was shut out completely the week before that, Rob Gronkowski managed a meager one catch for two yards in Week 9 against the Saints, and Jimmy Graham accumulated thirteen scoreless yards on two catches in Week 8 against them. Jordan Reed’s five grabs for 62 scoreless yards serves as the only respectable fantasy outing for a tight end taking on New Orleans since way back in Week 5.
Dallas Goedert has been hot lately, averaging 14.1 points per game over his last three contests and finishing as the TE1 two weeks ago. He is the clear top option in the passing game for the Eagles. The concern is not with Goedert’s talent or recent production, but rather an impending quarterback change combined with a fear-inducing matchup. Jalen Hurts will have his work cut out for him as he makes his first career NFL start against a defense that ranks third on the season versus quarterbacks and first against signal-callers over the past three weeks. We cannot say for sure that Hurts will rely on his tight ends to the same level as Wentz and any added uncertainty provides serious cause for concern in such a daunting matchup. The waiver wire likely offers little-to-no-help, and GMs may be forced to lock Goedert into lineups. If it’s any consolation, unless you’re facing Kelce or Waller then your opponent is also unlikely to receive much from their tight end.
Devin Singletary vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Devin Singletary has enjoyed a nice two-game stretch, averaging 17.5 touches and 92.5 total yards. He still didn’t finish above RB22 in either of those games and hasn’t since Week 4. A pretty good reason for that is Singletary being allergic to the end zone. He has scored just one time this season despite touching the ball 159 times. Zack Moss fumbled near his own end zone early last week and was abruptly benched, paving the way for Singletary’s increased usage. His 21 touches were the most he has handled since Week 4, which is the last time he scored. From Weeks 5-10, Singletary finished above RB34 only once.
Pittsburgh allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the running back position. Washington found success with their rushers last week, but the Steelers had allowed only 13.4 points per game to opposing backfields in their four previous matchups. Assuming Moss’s punishment does not extend into this week, that is a minimal point-total to divide between two runners. The Steelers have surrendered the sixth-fewest rushing yards and second-fewest rushing scores in the NFL. Teams have scored on the ground only seven times all season against Pittsburgh. Managers desperate for a floor can play Singletary but you really shouldn’t aim to start him this time out, as the ceiling is essentially nonexistent.
Baker Mayfield vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baker Mayfield has failed to pass for more than 196 yards in any of his last five games versus either Baltimore or Pittsburgh. In this year’s two games with those divisional opponents, with one versus each, Mayfield has thrown 57 times, completing just 54.3% of those attempts for 154 yards per game with two touchdowns and three interceptions. For whatever reason, Cleveland just has not shown up in these divisional showdowns, getting clobbered by a combined score of 76-13 this season. The Ravens are not the friendliest bunch to opposing quarterbacks as it is. Baltimore allows the second-fewest yards per attempt while ranking ninth in passing touchdowns surrendered, and ninth in quarterback rating against.
Only three quarterbacks have finished as a top-twelve option against Baltimore and one was Patrick Mahomes back in Week 3. Further, Ryan Tannehill is the only quarterback to have finished inside the top-twelve against the Ravens over the past six weeks. Mayfield has been hot lately, finishing as the QB3 last week and the QB12 a week prior. However, he has only one other top-twelve performance to his credit on the entire season. Two strong outings against the bottom-feeding defenses of the Titans and Jaguars do not instill enough confidence to bet against the Browns’ tendency to come up short in these matchups. GMs should look elsewhere for a quarterback to lead their playoff charge.
Darius Slayton vs. Arizona Cardinals
Darius Slayton has fallen off a cliff, catching one or fewer passes in three of his last four games. It doesn’t help that he spent last week with backup Colt McCoy. He may be forced to endure another McCoy start this week, although Daniel Jones has a chance to return. Slayton will need Jones back if he has any hope of delivering in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Slayton has averaged just 4.4 fantasy points per game over his last six contests, catching more than two passes only twice in that span. Concerningly, he has commanded only 3.8 targets per game over that six-game stretch and has not found the end zone. He still played 91% of snaps last week but his target share is down significantly after averaging 7.3 targets per game during the opening six weeks of the season.
Slayton operates down the field while Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate run mostly underneath routes. Arizona’s strength is in how they defend the deep pass, ranking second in DVOA against the deep ball. The Cardinals also allow the seventh-lowest yards per pass attempt. This is clearly not the matchup to target a player of Slayton’s specialized skillset. The Cardinals allow 31.8 fantasy points per game to wideouts but have surrendered only 24.4 per game over the last three weeks, which would rank second in the NFL. If Daniel Jones goes, sit Slayton. Ditto if it’s Colt McCoy.
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