EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 13: English Premier League

If you read last weekend's piece, you'll have seen I'm currently nursing a broken finger which is making typing more painful than it should be. Nevertheless, the process and research doesn't diminish, just the quantity of the write-up is a bit less. We still managed to bag two winners from our three picks at +131 and +106 and both games came close to bagging us correct scores. Only the Manchester derby let us down, what with it being such a damp squib of a game. We have the first full midweek slate of the season so no time to rest and we're back on the hunt for more profit.

• Picks total - 12 out of 27
• Parlays - 1 out of 9
• Correct scores - 4 out of 27

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

Fans are being permitted back into most stadiums this weekend (albeit in very small numbers) for the first time since March which may help some home teams, but it's impossible to tell until we see at least a few games, so that's something to keep in mind going forward. I won't be reviewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.

Wednesday, December 16th, 2020

Newcastle United @ Leeds United - 1:00 pm ET

Newcastle picked up the three points on Saturday as we predicted, although a clean sheet wasn't secured to bag our correct score. That made it back-to-back wins for the first time this season and Wednesday represents a good chance to make it three wins in three games. Newcastle's only loss to a team in the bottom half of the table came against Brighton in the second game of the season when they were clearly not up to the required level after a shortened preseason.

For Leeds, it was a familiar story on Friday. Despite creating numerous openings and taking an early lead, they couldn't find the second goal making it six straight games without scoring twice and they eventually succumbed to a late set-piece winner for West Ham. While I think they can stop the rot and avoid three straight league defeats (something they haven't experienced this season), Newcastle seems the more likely to win the game and as significant underdogs, odds favor us picking Newcastle to win or draw.

Newcastle United 12th - 17 pts
Leeds United 14th - 14 pts

Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Newcastle United (Pinnacle odds +700)

Betting Pick:

• Double Chance - Newcastle United to win or draw @ +117 (Draftkings)

Brighton @ Fulham - 3:00 pm ET

As we expected, Brighton was comprehensively beaten by Leicester City on Sunday now making it just one win in their last ten league games. On 11 of Brighton's 12 games this season, there was been three or more goals or both teams have scored, with just a solitary 0-0 against Burnley to blot that record. Only twice Brighton has failed to score in a game and they only have two clean sheets, so goals are common in Brighton games.

Fulham has shown signs of life after such a rough start to the season and picked up a deserved point against champions Liverpool at the weekend. That's also made it four straight home games in which they've scored while they have just one clean sheet all season. Only West Brom has conceded more goals this year and Brighton ranks 17th defensively with only one fewer goal conceded than Fulham.

Brighton 16th - 10 pts
Fulham 18th - 8 pts

Score prediction: Fulham 2 - 2 Brighton (Pinnacle odds +1400)

Betting Pick:

• Both to score/total goals - Yes & over 2.5 @ +148 (Pinnacle)

Thursday, December 17th, 2020

Burnley @ Aston Villa - 1:00 pm ET

Burnley picked up a much needed three points away at Arsenal on Sunday, but wasn't impressive in doing so. Arsenal should have been two or three goals in front, when they were inexplicably reduced to ten men in the second half and even then, Burnley needed an own goal to pick up the win. They rank 19th in goals scored and expected goals scored (xG) this year and have failed to score in six of their eleven games this season.

Aston Villa picked up a big win against local rivals Wolves on Saturday in a fiery game which saw eleven players booked and both sides reduced to ten men. Unlike their opponents on Thursday, Aston Villa has had no problem finding the back of the net and only failed to score once this season (10 games). Five of their six wins this season have coincided with keeping a clean sheet so if they do manage to keep Burnley at bay, they have enough going forward to win the game.

Burnley 17th - 9 pts
Aston Villa 10th - 18 pts

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 0 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +825)

Betting Pick:

•    Single game parlay - Aston Villa to win & under 4.5 total goals @ +104 (Draftkings)

Parlay

• Parlay for all three picks is +1098. I like these four combined; Leicester/Everton both to score, Fulham/Brighton both to score, Aston Villa to win and Newcastle to win or draw @ +1086

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks next week!

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