RADIO
Hey everyone, we're back for another round! Welcome to our Divisional Round matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. While the season-long fantasy football season is over, it's a great time to keep it rolling and try to make some money in DFS and playoff contests. With that in mind, this article will be more DFS-centric for the playoffs.
We'll be analyzing every NFL game on the Divisional Round slate, helping you optimize your daily fantasy football lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will be covering the Saturday games, while Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the Sunday games. If you have any additional questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts, and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that DFS victory!
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Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Matchups We Love:
RB Cam Akers ($7,000 FanDuel, $5,700 DraftKings)
Akers should once again act as the focal point of this offense with the injury concerns in the passing game. Akers put up 30 touches for 176 total yards and a touchdown last week. We can safely project another significant workload, even with the potential negative game script. Even if the Rams fall behind, I don't think they'll get away from the running game with Jared Goff's injury. The Packers rank 18th in run DVOA, so this is an exploitable matchup.
RB Aaron Jones ($7,800 FanDuel, $6,800 DraftKings)
The Packers are 7-point favorites against a Rams team with a banged-up Jared Goff, so this projects as a positive game script for Aaron Jones. Jalen Ramsey is the best corner in football who should be able to at least slow down Davante Adams, which could result in more targets for Jones. The Rams rank 3rd in run DVOA, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but this is a bet on game script over matchup.
TE Robert Tonyan ($6,200 FanDuel, $4,200 DraftKings)
It's going to be difficult for the Packers to make big plays on the perimeter, so I expect their passing game to focus on checkdowns to Jones and more looks for Robert Tonyan. The Rams are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, but that's been the weakest link on their defense. I expect Aaron Rodgers to take advantage over the middle of the field and find his tight end.
Matchups We Hate:
QB Jared Goff ($6,700 FanDuel, $5,200 DraftKings)
Goff is playing with an injured thumb against a Packers Defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Expect the Rams to continue to go with a run-heavy approach, feeding Akers to keep this Packers offense on the field. Goff won't have enough volume and will likely be inefficient, so he's an easy avoid, even at the cheap price.
WR Robert Woods ($6,600 FanDuel, $5,900 DraftKings)
WR Cooper Kupp ($6,100 FanDuel, $5,300 DraftKings)
WR Josh Reynolds ($5,200 FanDuel, $3,200 DraftKings)
It's tough to rely on any of the Rams wide receivers with Goff's current status. Woods will likely be covered by Jaire Alexander, who's developed into one of the best corners in football. Kupp is dealing with a knee injury and there's a chance that he's unable to suit up for this game. Reynolds is a cheap dart-throw in DFS tournaments, but there's simply not enough volume in this offense to target these wide receivers.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,500 FanDuel, $3,800 DraftKings)
WR Allen Lazard ($5,300 FanDuel, $3,900 DraftKings)
The Rams are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so it's tough to rely on the two Packers ancillary options in this one. Lazard is dealing with a wrist injury, so he'll be at less than 100 percent if he suits up for this game. MVS is a volatile deep threat, which makes him a player to avoid in this tough matchup.
Other Matchups:
TE Tyler Higbee ($5,200 FanDuel, $3,000 DraftKings)
TE Gerald Everett ($4,300 FanDuel, $2,700 DraftKings)
The tight ends were a non-factor last week, but we could see a bit more passing volume with the Rams projected to play from behind in this game. In that case, Higbee or Everett can act as a safety valve for Goff. The Packers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, but this Rams duo is firmly in play if you choose to punt at tight end in DFS tournaments.
QB Aaron Rodgers ($8,400 FanDuel, $6,900 DraftKings)
This year's MVP favorite is always in play, but we have to downgrade him a bit against the best defense in football. The Rams are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. It's going to be difficult for Rodgers to reach his ceiling in this game, so we need to consider him a lukewarm option this week.
WR Davante Adams ($9,000 FanDuel, $8,600 DraftKings)
Adams has established himself as the best wide receiver in football, but he'll have his hands full in his toughest matchup of the season against Jalen Ramsey. That doesn't mean that we should avoid him in playoff formats or DFS tournaments, but we need to temper our expectations in this one.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Matchups We Love:
QB Lamar Jackson ($8,000 FanDuel, $7,600 DraftKings)
Since returning from the COVID reserve list, Jackson is averaging 94.3 rushing yards per game in six games. The last time the Bills faced an elite rushing quarterback, Kyler Murray ran for 61 yards and two touchdowns and the Cardinals put up 32 points. While both defenses have improved in recent weeks, each of these two offenses is playing at their highest level right now, so we can project a shootout here. Fire him Lamar as an elite QB1.
RB J.K. Dobbins ($6,500 FanDuel, $6,000 DraftKings)
RB Gus Edwards ($5,300 FanDuel, $4,200 DraftKings)
Dobbins (10 touches) and Edwards (8 touches) essentially split the workload in last week's win against the Titans. This running game is firing on all cylinders right now, going up against a Bills Defense that ranks 17th in run DVOA, allowing 4.59 yards per carry (23rd). I expect the Ravens to continue to have success in the running game this week. Fire up Dobbins as an upside RB2 with Edwards as an interesting pivot play in DFS tournaments.
TE Mark Andrews ($6,600 FanDuel, $5,000 DraftKings)
Andrews has disappointed in his last two games, catching 8-of-13 targets for 68 yards, but he has a good matchup against a Bills defense that ranks 31st in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. With cornerback Tre'Davious White slowing down Marquise Brown, expect the Ravens to lean on Andrews when they're forced to air it out.
QB Josh Allen ($8,800 FanDuel, $7,400 DraftKings)
Allen is playing like the best quarterback in football right now, so he remains in the love section despite going up against a Ravens Defense that just limited Ryan Tannehill to 6.35 yards per attempt. The Ravens are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but Allen's rushing ability raises his floor here. I expect the Ravens to control this one with their running game, which will force Allen to air it out.
WR Stefon Diggs ($8,600 FanDuel, $7,300 DraftKings)
Like Allen, Diggs is playing like the best wide receiver in the NFL right now, putting up at least 120 yards in four of his last five games. The Ravens are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but Diggs has the talent and volume to overcome a tough matchup. Expect the Bills to remain pass-heavy, especially since the Ravens defense has really tightened up against the run.
Matchups We Hate:
WR Marquise Brown ($6,500 FanDuel, $5,200 DraftKings)
Brown has really come alive in the last few weeks, putting up 80 yards or a touchdown in seven consecutive games, but this is a tough matchup against a Bills defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Tre'Davious White figures to be matched up with Brown, which makes this a matchup to avoid, especially since with the Ravens run-heavy offense.
RB Devin Singletary ($5,700 FanDuel, $4,500 DraftKings)
Singletary should have a larger role with Zack Moss out, but temper your expectations here. This is a defense that just limited Derrick Henry to 2.2 YPC. The Bills are a pass-heavy offense and Josh Allen steals goal-line carries, so it's tough to play Singletary here, especially in DFS tournaments, where he figures to have a high ownership percentage.
Other Matchups:
WR Cole Beasley ($5,900 FanDuel, $4,900 DraftKings)
WR John Brown ($5,500 FanDuel, $4,600 DraftKings)
WR Gabriel Davis ($5,400 FanDuel, $4,000 DraftKings)
Beasley (seven receptions, 57 yards) and Davis (four receptions, 85 yards) outproduced Brown (goose egg) last week, but we could see a bounce-back from Brown in this one. The Ravens are tough on wide receivers, but we can expect higher passing volume in this game, which keeps each of these wide receivers in play as lukewarm options.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Games
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Of all the teams left in the playoffs, no one allows more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the Cleveland Browns. That seems, uhh, really bad for the Browns when you consider they face Patrick Mahomes this week. He's by far the best DFS play on Sunday's schedule, even factoring in his cost, because the other three quarterbacks face significantly tougher defenses.
Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
REVENGE GAME.
The Chiefs allowed more receiving yards to opposing running backs than any other NFL team did this season. Hunt should be able to have a strong game here, even though his targets were down the past two games. He has five receiving touchdowns on the season.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
The only problem with Tyreek Hill this week is that a Mahomes/Hill stack is going to cost you a pretty penny in DFS. The Browns secondary isn't very good. Hill caught 15 touchdowns this season and had just two games with under 50 yards. He's the highest-upside wide receiver on Sunday's slate.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
If the Mahomes/Hill stack will cost a lot, the Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack will probably prevent you from building a viable lineup because you won't be left with a lot of cap space. But with the Browns allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season and Kelce last catching fewer than seven passes way back in Week 7, you might want to lean more towards the Mahomes/Kelce stack than the Mahomes/Hill stack.
Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
The Chiefs Defense has a weak spot, and it's tight ends. They allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to the position in the regular season, and Hooper has double-digit targets in two of the last three games. This is setting up to be a strong one for the former Falcon, and I'll be rostering him a bunch this weekend.
Matchups We Hate:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Le'Veon Bell (RB, KC)
Basically the one thing I don't like about this game is the Chiefs run game. Will CEH play after his sprained ankle? If Bell is the lead back, can he find a way to get involved in the passing game, considering he hasn't had more than three targets in a game all season? Lots and lots of questions and no answers that I really like. I'll be mostly avoiding these two on Sunday.
Other Matchups:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
My second-favorite QB on this Saturday slate, I don't expect Mayfield to play like he did against Mahomes in their infamous, record-setting college game, and I think there's a decent chance this is a let-down spot for him, but the Chiefs Defense allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks among teams left in the postseason, which is a good reason to go with him if you want to pivot off of Mahomes.
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
KC allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs in the regular season, but much of that was because they allowed more receiving yards to running backs than any other team. For that reason, I'm not as high on Chubb as the raw numbers might suggest I should be. He's a great back, but the game script could impact him significantly this week. Still, his touchdown upside means I want to have him in some lineups.
Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE)
While Hooper gets a ton of targets, I expect the other weapons in Cleveland to have slightly less-effective days. Landry had a solid opening round, with five catches for 92 yards and a score, making him the upside play here. But his yardage totals have been capped in the low 60s for all but three games, which gives him just enough downside for me to not love him. As for Higgins, he's an interesting dart throw, but not sure he's much more than that.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Matchups We Love:
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
The safe Bucs receiver play, Godwin is the guy that we know will get targets, as he has at least six in all but one game this year. With touchdowns in four consecutive games, Godwin has the best mix of ceiling and floor among the Tampa wideouts. I'll have him in more DFS lineups than Mike Evans or Antonio Brown.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
Tampa allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to TEs in the regular season. Cook has 80 yards against them in Week 1 and then was held in check in the second meeting, with two catches for 30 yards. But the Saints offense as a whole struggled that game, and Cook had seven regular-season touchdowns, adding to his upside. On a slate where everyone will be playing Travis Kelce, here's a more affordable guy to pivot to.
Matchups We Hate:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Hmm. The Saints allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in the regular season and he threw three picks and no touchdowns the last time these teams met. Do I expect a repeat of that? Not really. But Brady definitely has the lowest floor on Sunday's slate, which is something you need to be aware of when building your lineup.
Ronald Jones II/Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
RoJo killed some DFS lineups last week as he was hurt in pregame and didn't end up playing, and with Jones out, Fournette had 93 yards and a touchdown. And that was against a good Washington run defense! But the Saints allow the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, and if this ends up being a split situation again, neither guy will get the needed work for me to trust them. If Jones is out, upgrade Fournette a little bit and throw him in the "Other Matchups" section.
Latavius Murray (RB, NO)
Only one team -- surprise, it was Tampa Bay -- didn't allow 1000 rushing yards on the season to opposing running backs. That's...not good if you're betting on Murray to be a productive part of your lineup!
Other Matchups:
Drew Brees (QB, NO)
The Buccaneers have a good pass defense, but Brees shredded it apart to the tune of six touchdowns and no interceptions in the regular season. He didn't throw for a ton of yards -- 160 in the first game and 222 in the second -- so we should factor that into our projections, but he should have an efficient game, even if he won't put up big yardage.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara had three touchdowns in two regular-season games against Tampa, but also got shut down in the run game, with 12 carries for 16 yards in Week 1 and then nine for 40 in Week 9. He had just nine receiving yards in that second game too. Kamara is always a strong option, but this is a week where his value is a lot more dependent on touchdowns than it usually is, which makes him a slightly risk play based on his DFS salary.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
Thomas hasn't had the kind of season we expected from him, with injuries and QB changes hindering him. But in his first game since Week 14, he had five catches for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Bears and should lead the Saints receivers in targets. Even in a bad matchup for New Orleans, Thomas has enough upside to make him playable
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
The Saints really held Evans in check this season, though he was injured in the season opener, when he caught just one pass for two yards (though yeah, it was a touchdown). In the second week, he had four catches for 64 yards. He's always got touchdown upside, but also lots of downsides here against a team that knows how to defend him.
Antonio Brown (WR, TB)
His Bucs debut was against the Saints, who held him to three catches for 31 yards. He does have touchdowns in four consecutive games right now, giving him solid upside, but his three targets last week are a part of why I'm hesitant on Brown this week: he might just not get the targets he needs to return value.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
The Saints allowed 13 DraftKings points per game to tight ends in the regular season, but Gronk is a little too inconsistent for me to play a ton of him. I mean, he had no catches last week and just two the week before! He has touchdown upside, but also too much risk.
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