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The NFL season is not quite over yet, but it's never too early to start evaluating draft prospects. The 2021 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Series will feature prominent 2021 NFL Draft prospects with film analysis and scouting insights. I have experience working in college football and have been studying the NFL Draft for over 15 years. My analysis is based on film study and analytics.
A common misconception about the NFL Draft is that the college and pro games are very similar. They are not. Besides the obvious difference in speed and skill level, a college field has different dimensions and different rules. There are specific schemes and plays that NFL teams copy from college and vice versa. But the differences between the two are understated in NFL Draft coverage. There's a reason many highly productive college players are not considered legitimate professionals.
To that end, scouting prospects is not about evaluating college performance, it’s about projecting traits that translate to the next level. This is not limited to just physical traits. There are certain football traits that are evident in college film and will translate to the pro game. For example, a wide receiver being able to get in and out of breaks efficiently will not change from college to pro. On the flip side, an edge rusher who got most of his sacks due to hustle or missed offensive line assignments may not have shown translatable traits on film. We will kick off our draft coverage this year with a look at the top QB prospect in the draft in Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence.
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Trevor Lawrence: Profile
Trevor Lawrence started his career at Clemson 29-0, losing his first collegiate game in the 2020 National Championship to LSU as a sophomore. Lawrence finished his Clemson career with a 38-2 record, one National title, and a myriad of school records. As far as storied college careers go, Lawrence will forever be a legend. With that said, college accolades mean very little to NFL teams evaluating draft prospects. Success and production at the college level are nice, but NFL teams care much more about translating traits to the next level.
In some cases, a college QB has enough talent to dominate at the NCAA level but lacks the traits that translate to the NFL. This is not one of those cases.
Lawrence has all the physical tools teams look for, starting with his large frame (6-6, 220) and a strong arm. The QB can make every throw, including the deep out to the field. He also possesses a rare mix of size and athleticism, with speed and power as a runner.
The clip below highlights his clean footwork and arm strength. The ball jumps out of his hand, especially when he hitches up in the pocket.
Lawrence is as natural as anyone when it comes to spitting the pill. He played in a very screen-heavy offensive scheme, which some may spin as a negative. I noticed how consistently and efficiently he placed those screen passes. Last I checked, NFL teams still called screens.
Pocket Poise
Another positive of Lawrence's film is his ability to handle the pressure. His size and physical traits allow him to confidently keep his eyes downfield in the face of pressure. The clip below highlights his disregard for two delayed blitzers as he quickly looks left to keep the safety out of the play and tosses a pretty touch pass to his Z WR. Notice the tight spiral and downward trajectory of the ball.
There are many instances in a film of Lawrence hitting on deep balls. He is consistently accurate (think a pitcher's control) and his placement (think a pitcher's command) is well above average for a college QB prospect.
In the clip below, Lawrence does a great job manipulating the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield. Many young, right-handed QBs will look to roll out to their right when their initial read isn't there. Some will drop their eyes and look to run almost immediately. Lawrence here helps out his offensive linemen and moves up in the pocket, showing off his physical traits and toughness as he takes a hit and delivers a strike.
Lawrence has every trait you look for in an NFL franchise QB, but his most impressive translatable football trait is his instinctive ability to manipulate the pocket. Another underrated trait he possesses is his ability to throw while rolling to the left. He also can make off-platform throws depending on the situation, including fading away. Fading away is not a great habit, but NFL teams will be encouraged by the special arm talent on those reps, even if they aren't exactly highly-graded college plays.
NFL Outlook
While Lawrence's arm talent is undeniable, his transition to the pro game mentally will define his career. The offense at Clemson was very play-action and screen-heavy. There are some full-field reads and straight drop-back concepts on film, but most of Lawrence's success down the field came on pre-determined 1-on-1s and open play-action concepts. Lawrence showed good timing in a quick game and on intermediate crossers. But I did not come away from the film thinking he understood coverages at an advanced level. Among his mistakes were two throws to the out against 2-read and two times not seeing the deep safety against Louisville.
The clip below is a fairly standard coverage, with three deep defenders and a safety rolling down to the trips set. Lawrence might recognize it as a 2-high look pre-snap and decides to throw it, misreading that the safety wouldn't drop to the deep middle. Regardless, it's a poor decision and shows a misunderstanding of simple coverage. He will see much trickier coverages in the NFL.
The good news for Lawrence is that his film shows a command for his offense, which bodes well for his ability to grasp the NFL game when he learns a pro system.
Lawrence is a special prospect. I would not put him on the level of Andrew Luck, but his mix of size, mobility, and arm talent is rare. He would look great in a Jaguars uniform.
Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more prospect profiles and other NFL Draft content.
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