RADIO
Hey everyone, welcome back! While the season-long fantasy season is over, it's a great time to keep it rolling and try to make some money in DFS. With that in mind, this article will be more DFS-centric for the NFL playoffs.
Welcome to our Conference Championships matchups analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be analyzing every game on the Conference Championships slate, helping you optimize your daily fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will be covering both games this week. If you have any additional questions, follow him on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that DFS victory!
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Matchups Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers
Matchups We Love:
QB Aaron Rodgers ($8,700 FanDuel, $6,500 DraftKings)
WR Davante Adams ($8,900 FanDuel, $8,000 DraftKings)
Rodgers and Adams are in a great spot against the Bucs pass-funnel defense. With the Bucs run defense acting as a brick wall, we could see an uptick in volume for this passing game. The Bucs allowed the second-most pass attempts in the NFL this season. They also gave up 23.4 points per game to quarterbacks (T-21st) and 39 points to wide receivers (23rd). Adams led the league in target share, so a pass-heavy gameplan could result in a blow-up from the best WR in football. We saw what Tyreek Hill (13 receptions, 269 yards, and 3 TD) did to this defense.
WR Chris Godwin ($6,800 FanDuel, $5,400 DraftKings)
This game sets up nicely for Godwin, Mike Evans will likely have to deal with Jaire Alexander, who has been one of the best cover corners in football this season. Godwin led the team with seven targets last week, including a near-touchdown on a deep pass right before halftime. Expect Tom Brady to lean on his most talented receiver in this tough matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
WR Mike Evans ($6,600 FanDuel, $5,800 DraftKings)
WR Antonio Brown ($5,800 FanDuel, $4,700 DraftKings)
Evans is playing at less than 100 percent, currently dealing with a knee injury. This will likely make it tough for him to get loose against Alexander in this game. The Packers have been tough on wide receivers this season, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game. While Evans has touchdown equity, I would look elsewhere in this matchup. AB (knee) is a game-time decision, which puts him off the radar in this game. I wouldn't trust him at less than 100 percent against this tough pass defense.
UPDATE: Antonio Brown has officially been ruled out.
RB Aaron Jones ($8,000 FanDuel, $6,500 DraftKings)
Jones has a tough matchup against the best run defense in football. The Bucs limited running backs to only 3.38 yards per carry (1st) and 20.1 fantasy points per game (T-3rd). Last week, Jones (15 touches) shared the workload with Jamaal Williams (12 touches), and A.J. Dillon (6 touches). While you're still playing him in regular playoff formats due to his big-play upside, I would fade him in DFS.
Other Matchups:
QB Tom Brady ($7,800 FanDuel, $6,100 DraftKings)
Brady takes on a Packers Defense that was tied for the third-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but he should have a favorable game script here. I expect the Packers to control this game, resulting in higher passing volume for Brady as he tries to keep pace and come from behind. Consider Brady a lukewarm option this week.
RB Leonard Fournette ($7,200 FanDuel, $5,300 DraftKings)
RB Ronald Jones II ($5,600 FanDuel, $4,600 DraftKings)
Fournette out-touched Jones 17-13 last week. As the superior pass-catcher, this profiles as a more favorable game for Fournette, as the Bucs project to play from behind. However, Jones is the more explosive runner and the Packers are more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 27th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Both Bucs backs are in play in all formats this week, especially DFS due to their affordable prices.
TE Rob Gronkowski ($5,200 FanDuel, $3,200 DraftKings)
Gronk has a good chance at finding the endzone this week with Alexander shadowing Evans. He could also see a bump in targets if AB is unable to play. When these two teams met in Week 6, Gronk caught 5-of-8 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. He's a solid play at tight end in this game.
WR Allen Lazard ($5,700 FanDuel, $4,200 DraftKings)
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,500 FanDuel, $3,900 DraftKings)
Lazard (8 TGT, 4 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD) outplayed MVS (8 TGT, 4 REC, 33 YDS) last week, but both players are dart-throws in hopes that they catch a long bomb from Rodgers. Lazard came through against the Rams, but it could easily be MVS this time around. I would consider rostering one of them to go along with Adams in a Packers stack in DFS.
TE Robert Tonyan ($5,700 FanDuel, $3,600 DraftKings)
Tonyan has the touchdown equity (11 TD) to make him work a look at tight end this week, especially since I expect it to be a pass-heavy gameplan for the Packers. The Bucs were tied for 22nd in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends this year, so this is an exploitable matchup for Tonyan.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
QB Josh Allen ($8,500 FanDuel, $6,900 DraftKings)
WR Stefon Diggs ($8,300 FanDuel, $7,000 DraftKings)
The Chiefs allowed 23.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (T-21st) and 31.3 points to wide receivers (2nd), but you still have to love Allen and Diggs in a game where the Bills will likely need to air it out to keep pace with this high-octane Chiefs offense. When these two teams met in Week 6, Allen had his worst game of the season, throwing for only 122 yards (4.5 Y/A). I expect him to bounce back this time around. Diggs is on a crazy hot streak, totaling 61 receptions, 824 yards, and 6 touchdowns in his last seven games. He's the second-best wide receiver on this slate.
QB Patrick Mahomes ($9,000 FanDuel, $7,600 DraftKings)
TE Travis Kelce ($8,600 FanDuel, $8,000 DraftKings)
Mahomes is a must-play every week, but temper your expectations with him coming off a concussion and now facing a Bills Defense that was tied for 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. With Rodgers and Allen on this slate, it might be worth it to avoid Mahomes and save some money. Like Diggs, Kelce is on an absurd stretch, putting up 73 receptions, 1,024 yards, and seven touchdowns in his last nine games. Kelce is one of my core plays in DFS this week, along with Diggs, Adams, and Rodgers.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,200 FanDuel, $5,000 DraftKings)
CEH returns to the lineup just in time to face the team that he went off for 161 yards back in Week 6. The Bills are allowing 4.57 yards per carry (21st), so this is an exploitable matchup. We could see the Chiefs lean on the running game a bit more than usual with Mahomes at less than 100 percent - last week, Darrel Williams had 17 touches. I expect CEH to retain his lead role and this is a great spot to play him in DFS.
Matchups We Hate:
WR John Brown ($5,600 FanDuel, $4,300 DraftKings)
WR Cole Beasley ($5,700 FanDuel, $4,100 DraftKings)
WR Gabriel Davis ($5,000 FanDuel, $3,500 DraftKings)
The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, so it's tough to count on these two deep-threats. John Brown bounced back from his goose egg against the Colts to put up eight receptions and 62 yards. This time, Gabriel Davis got shut out after totaling 85 yards on four receptions in the Wild Card game. Davis is also dealing with an ankle injury. Beasley is also at less than 100 percent and it's shown so far this postseason - he was also shut out against the Ravens. These three receivers have upside, but their floor is low right now. Consider them dart-throw DFS plays.
Other Matchups:
RB Devin Singletary ($5,800 FanDuel, $4,500 DraftKings)
Singletary played over 80% of the snaps last week with Zack Moss on the shelf. This week, he takes on a Chiefs Defense that allowed 4.55 yards per carry (19th) this season. The Bills would be wise to give Singletary a bit more touches to keep this Chiefs offense off the field. He looks like a solid play in all formats this week.
WR Tyreek Hill ($8,400 FanDuel, $7,200 DraftKings)
WR Sammy Watkins ($5,400 FanDuel, $3,800 DraftKings)
Hill is a WR1 every week in regular playoff formats, but it's hard to recommend him in DFS with his price tag and superior options like Adams and Diggs on the slate. The Bills are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Watkins looks ready to return to the lineup and we can consider him a DFS dart-throw in a revenge game against his former team. Consider both lukewarm options with no gain in value based on the matchup.
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