NBA First Half Recap: Risers, Fallers, and Frivolities at the Forward Position

Welcome to the RotoBaller NBA Recap. Welcome, also, to the weirdest review in the history of pro basketball in the USA as the league is trying to pull off the feat of completing a "full" season in the middle of a pandemic. So far, so good, though. There have been some games missed here and there, but we're in the All-Star break with 49% of the season on the rearview mirror, and although the second half looks like it'll be a true grind, we're surely getting there.

In this three-piece series, one per each G/F/C position we're accustomed to working with in fantasy leagues, I will highlight a few key fantasy basketball takeaways from what has happened in the league through the midway point of the 2020-21 season. I will highlight some feats, drop some statistical frivolities, write down some names of surprising and upsetting players, etc...

Fantasy basketball has a lot of moving pieces with all the different scoring settings that are possible to play under, so I will always do my best to spotlight where players gain or lose value in certain game types. For the sake of simplicity and consistency, every time I mention Fantasy Points in these articles I will be using DraftKings' scoring system, which goes as follows: 1*PTS, 0.5*3PM, 1.25*RBD, 1.5*AST, 2*STL, 2*BLK, -0.5*TO. On top of that, bonus points are awarded for Double-Doubles (+1.5) and Triple-Doubles (+3), only one per player at a time. Without further ado, let's get right into what happened for the past three months and change around the Association!

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including NBA Writer of the Year, Best NFL Series, MLB Series, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Risers, Fallers, and Frivolities at the Forward (F) Position

Since the day the season tipped off all the way back on December 22, I have been building a daily database that includes every fantasy-eligible player of each day slate of games along with his stat line on those matches. It's been a little over three months of games, and at this point (49%) into the season, my dataset already contains 11,304 individual entries!

Of those total stat lines, 4,370 (39% of them) belong to players tagged with the SF or PF position in the games they played. More than enough to try to find some relevant information about that massive mountain of data, Let's get to it!

 

Best Fantasy Performers and Performances

The first category covers some incredible games put up by different players through the first half of the NBA season. There have been a lot of games and individual outings out there, so it's impossible to go through everything here. That being said, the following lines definitely caught my eyes.

• Domantas Sabonis, of all men, has the absolute-best single stat line of the year for a forward: a 26-17-10-3-1 performance against Minnesota in which he played 46 minutes, hit a triple, shot 62% from the floor on 21 FGA, and added 9 points from the charity stripe. That is the only game with more than 77 FP by a forward in the first half, as Domas reached 83 on the night.
• Kevin Durant (38-12-8-1-4) and LeBron James (46-8-6-2-2) round up the top-3 single-game leaderboard being the only other two players with 75+ FP games so far.
• After that top-3, though, a clear beast appears: Giannis Antetokounmpo holds seven of the top-11 single-game lines through the halfway point of the year. That compares to Sabonis' and Durant's one such game, and LeBron's two. Giannis' average line in those seven top-11 games: 33-14-7-2-2.

• There have been four kinda-under-the-radar players to reach 60+ FP in at least one game this season: P.J. Washington (42-9-2-2-2), Draymond Green (11-12-19-1-1), Caris Levert (28-4-11-5), and Kelly Oubre Jr. (40-8-2-1-1).
• Keeping on the valuable/surprising beat, here are some other players with 45+ FP games through the first three months of the season that came seemingly out of nowhere: Nassir Little (30-6-1-1-2), Saddiq Bey (30-12 with 7 triples), Danilo Gallinari (38-6-2-2 with 10 treys), Chris Boucher (29-10-1-0-2), and Otto Porter (28-12-3-3).

• Gallinari is the lone forward to hit 10 triples in a single game, doing so against Boston. Davis Bertans, although has been a little upsetting through the first three months of the season, is the only F with a 9-triple line. Wayne Ellington, Blake Griffin (!), Paul George, and Kristaps Porzingis are the only other players with 8 treys in a game.
• Not only does Sabonis have the best game overall among F-eligible players, he also has the one with the most rebounds: a 28-22-4 performance against Phoenix at the start of January. No other F has grabbed 20+ boards, with both Giannis and the very own Sabonis the only ones reaching 19 on a single match.
• When it comes to assists, there is one and only one true dime-disher among players at the F position: Draymond Green. Green is the only F with at least one game racking up 15+ assists, and in fact, he has four of them, ranging from 19 to 16 to 15 (x2) dimes. Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James are tied for second with 13 assists each in a single game.
• Butler has the record for most steals in a game by a forward with 7, while Chris Boucher got to swat the most shots in a single match with 7 blocks against the Spurs all the way back in December.

• Among G-eligible players with 20+ games played, the top-performers in average FP per game are, in order: Giannis, LeBron, Julius Randle, Sabonis, Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Davis, Paul George, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam, Khris Middleton, Jerami Grant, Tobias Harris, and Gordon Hayward.
• Among the same group of players, the top-performers in average FP per minute are, in order: Giannis, LeBron, Butler, DeMarcus Cousins, Davis, Leonard, Sabonis, Randle, George, Zion, Porzingis, Tatum, Brown, Middleton, Boucher, Ingram, Thaddeus Young, Tobias Harris, Siakam, and Bobby Portis.

• Undervalued players (min. 20 games played) averaging the highest FP/G: Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes, Kyle Anderson, Draymond Green, Michael Porter Jr., Kelly Oubre Jr., Thaddeus Young, P.J. Washington, Boucher, O.G. Anunoby, Keldon Johnson, Norman Powell, Mikal Bridges, Marvin Bagley III, and Eric Gordon.
• Undervalued players (min. 20 games played) averaging the highest FP/min: Cousins, Boucher, Thaddeus Young, Portis, Kyle Anderson, Ibaka, Bagley, Porter Jr., Gorgui Dieng, Holmes, Rudy Gay, JaMychal Green, Josh Jackson, Brandon Clarke, Paul Millsap.

 

Worst Fantasy Performers and Performances

Time to look at the other end of the spectrum and highlight some of the worst performers and performances of the year. This is not meant to just count the goose eggs that took place during the first half of the season, but rather to look at performance against expectations. That way we can get a better idea of who truly underperformed and to which extent.

I'm exclusively looking at single-game stat lines in which players logged at least 20 minutes of playing time, so that way we avoid most injury-related duds and we get a better outcome and set of data to analyze and extract nuggets of information from.

• Although it is hard to find the absolute worst fantasy performance of the first half, as that is a little bit subjective, there have definitely been some horrid top-tier performers out there: Kelly Oubre (3-5-1-1 shooting 10% on 10 FGA), Siakam (10-4-1-1), Tatum (13-1-1-2 in 32 minutes), LeVert (8-2-3-1 in 27 minutes), and Michael Porter Jr. (8-3-1-0-2 in 30 minutes).
• Among the bottom-15 performances of the season coming from forwards, Gordon Hayward has had the most games there with three. The average line he put up in those reads 14-2-2-1 in 32 MPG. Also in the bottom-15 single-worst-performances list: Oubre (x2), LeVert, Siakam, Porter Jr., Wiggins, Tatum (x2), Aaron Gordon, Lauri Markkanen, and Porzingis (x2).

• I was interested in looking at some of the worst shooting performances, so I filtered the data to include only 15+ FGA player-games. The worst true shooting percentage belongs to DeMarcus Cousins, who shot 13% from the floor on 16 FGA against Detroit to finish with 5 points (one triple) and a TS% of just 15.6%. He's the only F with a below-20% TS on a single match this year.
• Only three more players attempted at least 15 shots while finishing their games with a true shooting below 25%: Carmelo Anthony (6-9-1-2-1 shooting 20% on 15 FGA with no freebies), Reggie Bullock (6-5-3-1-1 shooting 20% on 15 FGA and no freebies), and Oubre (8-11-0-4 shooting 19% on 16 FGA and two-for-two freebies).

• The only negative fantasy statistic is turnovers, taking 0.5 FP from the total score per each TO committed. Giannis and Randle are the only F-eligible players to have reached 9 TOs on a single game this season. Giannis was also thrown out of his game after committing 6 PF, while Randle had his second-best game of the year reaching 63 FP against Cleveland that cold December day.
• There are three games in which a forward committed 8 turnovers, including performances by Sabonis, LeBron, and Kyle Anderson.
• Although not directly involved in fantasy score, personal fouls are another negative statistic as they limit the players' upside leaving them off the court for larger spells. As many as 43 times has a forward fouled out through the first half of the season; Sabonis and Josh Jackson led the pack fouling out three times each.

• Among F-eligible players with 20+ games played and averaging 25+ MPG, the worst performers in average FP per game are, in order: P.J. Tucker, Reggie Bullock, Jeff Green, Danuel House, Davis Bertans, Dorian Finney-Smith, Patrick Williams, Doug McDermott, Cam Reddish, Cedi Osman, Nicolas Batum, Jae Crowder, Royce O'Neale, Miles Bridges, Rui Hachimura, Carmelo Anthony, Joe Ingles, Kyle Kuzma, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Robert Covington.
• Among the same group of players, the top-performers in average FP per minute are, in order: Tucker, Finney-Smith, Bullock, Jeff Green, O'Neale, House, Patrick Williams, Reddish, Batum, Covington, Bertans, Hachimura, McDermott, Crowder, Bojan Bogdanovic, Osman, Bridges, Anunoby, Darius Bazley, Blake Griffin.
• Overvalued players (min. 20 games played, 20+ MPG) averaging the lowest FP/G relative to expectations: Aldridge, Griffin, Oubre, Michael Porter Jr., Draymond, Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, Barnes, Porzingis, Hayward, and Tobias Harris.
• Overvalued players (min. 20 games played, 20+ MPG) averaging the highest FP/min relative to expectations: Griffin, Barnes, Aldridge, Wiggins, Oubre, Green, Porter Jr., Grant, Hayward, and Kyle Anderson.

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