RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the best top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-Martin Truex Jr. has the best odds (5) and implied odds (20) to win the Toyota Owners 400. He won at Martinsville last week and starts on the pole position at Richmond. It is always an optimum approach to combine strong recent results with past performances and statistics to identify your best DFS targets. Truex has finished in the Top 3 in his last four Martinsville starts, winning two of them, as highlighted in the Track History category.
-Austin Dillon has a 75% chance of placing in the Top 10. Since he starts 11th, the odds indicate he has a very good chance of finishing near where he starts. While you do have to target drivers that provide Place Differential upside, you have to balance that out with those who have a good chance of delivering a quality finish in your lineups. For a DraftKings price tag of $7500, Dillon is a fine play for a Top 10 showing. He has an Average Finish of 10.8 at Richmond and placed fourth at the site last season, two solid supporting stats you will find among others as you scroll to the right from the odds column.
Projections
-Brad Keselowski is projected to score the most Fantasy Points on DraftKings this week (79.10). That is because Keselowski stands out as the must-start Place Differential crux of many of your lineups. He starts 20th and is projected to finish fifth. The projections leave room for a wider range of outcomes, so Keselowski has a very good floor this week, as he will reward you well even if he finishes a few spots behind fifth, and he can push for a win in any given week. Keselowski is the most expensive driver of the week, but you just have to lock him in and build around him. Don’t fade Keselowski because many others will roster him, just make sure you differentiate in multiple lineups around him.
-As you diversify in multiple lineups, Denny Hamlin will have to be another one of your top plays, and he is priced just below Truex and Keselowski. Hamlin is projected to finish fourth, but with the aforementioned wide range of outcomes, he can easily lead many laps and contend for the win. He starts on the front row with Truex and is projected to lead the third-most laps (31), only eight less than Truex. He is also projected to score the third-most Fantasy Points at Richmond (64.45). As noted in the Short Track Finishes category, Hamlin has placed in the Top 4 in his last three races on this type of track.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
-This statistic absolutely screams that you must fade Ryan Blaney this week. He has a -28.4 number in this category, by far worse than any other driver. Blaney is simply not worth the $9100 spend, and while he starts seventh and is projected to finish 10th, he has not placed in the Top 15 in any of his last nine starts at Richmond, as indicated in the Track History category. He has an unusually disappointing Average Finish of 20.8 at the site. It seems Blaney is a Top 10 priced driver this week based more on three respectable finishes in his last three races this season. He has placed first, eighth and 11th in the last three Cup events.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
-This is always a great category for us to identify top value plays for the week. Tyler Reddick has 10.4 points Gained vs. Similar Drivers and he is priced at $7200. He starts 13th and is projected to finish where he starts, which would be a very respectable showing for the price tag, He finished eighth at Martinsville last week and in his only start at Richmond last year, he started 22nd and finished 11th. Ryan Newman is right behind Reddick in Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers (10.3) and pricing ($7000). He starts 19th and is projected to finish 16th, so he will at least give you a few Place Differential points and should push for a Top 15 showing, which would be a pretty good return for the price.
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis
The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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