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The Baltimore Ravens selected Tylan Wallace in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL draft. Wallace became the sixth wide receiver drafted by the Ravens in the past three years. Only sixth-round pick James Proche has lower draft capital than Wallace.
He was also drafted behind first-rounder Rashod Bateman which complicates his path to targets on the most run-heavy team in the league. Will he manage to be a playmaker despite the odds?
When evaluating prospects' likelihood of NFL success, we care about three things:
1. College performance
2. Athletic measurables
3. Draft capital
College Performance
The good news about Tylan Wallace's collegiate profile is he did not redshirt. He came in and played right away. He did nothing as a freshman but broke out as a sophomore at age 19.
The bad news is Wallace played all four years. Historically, early declares are far more likely to have success at the next level than four-year players.
When analyzing a prospect's ceiling, we look at his best college season, which for Wallace, was his sophomore year where he posted 1,491 yards and 12 touchdowns on 86 receptions. Wallace played at Oklahoma State in the notorious passing game-friendly Big 12. His 47.1% dominator rating ranks in the 93rd percentile. When receivers play at big-time programs with high passing volume, we want a high dominator rating. We have that here.
Wallace's junior and senior seasons weren't as good as his sophomore campaign, but if you extrapolate his 903 and 917 yards across nine and 10 games respectively, you get about a 1,300-yard season, which is quite good. Wallace's college production does not disqualify him from being a successful NFL receiver.
Athletic Measurables
At 5'11, 194 lbs, Wallace profiles as that bigger outside receiver the Ravens so desperately have needed for years. He is a downfield threat to go up and get it and excels in contested catch situations.
While we certainly value production over athleticism, Wallace's athletic measurables leave much to be desired. If you add up Wallace's speed, burst, and agility scores, you would still total just 72%. His 11th percentile catch radius is not encouraging either.
Dominant outside receivers look like Wallace, but they typically are much more athletic. From this perspective, it's difficult to see Wallace ever mattering.
Rookie Season Outlook
While Wallace is immediately the Ravens' best option to play that alpha flanker role, they've historically done an extremely poor job managing their wide receivers. Devin Duvernay was their best slot option last season and he played just 37.2% of the snaps.
Currently, the Ravens' wide receiver depth chart is a muddy mess. "Hollywood" Marquise Brown is their stretch Z (miscast last season as their X). Sammy Watkins, for better or worse, is going to start alongside him. The Ravens spent a first-round pick on Rashod Bateman who should, in theory, play in three-receiver sets. He also profiles as that outside option despite playing much of 2020 in the slot. The Ravens could choose to use him there as well. Miles Boykin and the aforementioned Duvernay are unlikely to ever matter. Boykin is a cut candidate and just an all-around terrible football player. Duvernay is someone I liked last year, but given his complete lack of production as a rookie, the deck is stacked against him ever mattering. Proche is just a special teams guy.
So where does that put Wallace? Unfortunately, nowhere. Wallace is not going to play much as a rookie and even when he does, the targeting won't be there. The Ravens have been dead last in the NFL in pass attempts each of the past two seasons. That is no coincidence - that's how the offense works with Lamar Jackson under center, and it's not going to change. Wallace is way, way off the redraft radar.
Long-Term Outlook
The long-term prognosis on Wallace isn't much better. What makes Wallace any different than the other five wide receivers the Ravens drafted in the past three seasons that haven't done anything? The only one to matter at all is Hollywood Brown and just barely. He averaged 10.5 ppg as a rookie and 11.4 ppg as a sophomore. Best case scenario, he's a WR3. Lamar Jackson cannot support more than two fantasy-relevant pass catchers. One of them is going to be Mark Andrews. The other is going to most definitely not be Tylan Wallace.
Wallace, like Duvernay, Boykin, and Proche before him, projects to get a small share of a small pie. The more talented Bateman is barely going to matter as a Raven. Wallace, as a day three pick, is just about hopeless.
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