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MLB DFS Pitching Primer for 5/7
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High-Priced Aces
These are your studs who are worth paying up for on this slate. It makes sense to deploy these guys as your cash game plays on FanDuel and as your SP1 on DraftKings based on their high floor/ceiling combination.
Carlos Rodon @ KCR (11.2k FD, 10k DK)
Rodon comes in today as the most expensive pitcher on the slate, and it's hard to argue with that based on his incredible start to the 2021 season. I like him to pitch well tonight, but the Royals don't strike out much to LHP and I have projected for only around 7 strikeouts here. He's a pitcher I still believe in long-term, but I don't think paying this price is necessary tonight or optimal.
Jack Flaherty vs. COL (10.2k FD, 9.4k DK)
Flaherty is one of my favorite targets in the top tier tonight. He's pitching really well recently, winning his last five starts and striking out a season-high nine Pirates in his most recent outing. He's facing a Colorado team with mediocre numbers against RHP. The "Coors effect" is in play tonight as the Rockies are playing their first game outside Denver since Sunday after hosting the Giants all week.
Trevor Rogers vs. MIL (10.4k FD, 8.8k DK)
Rogers is having an incredible breakout season so far and has the best matchup of the high-priced guys tonight as he faces a Brewers team that is whiffing 29% of the time against LHP. He smashed in this spot two weeks ago, when he struck out seven Brewers over six scoreless frames and outdueling Corbin Burnes. He's getting the Brew Crew at home today, too, in a great pitchers' park. His DK price is simply too good to be true and he's a cash lock for me there.
Mid-Tier Pivots
These are riskier plays who often go overlooked in the 7-9k price range, but have a lot of upside for tournaments and will save us some salary to spend on better hitters or another mid-tier pitcher (on DraftKings).
Zac Gallen @ NYM (8.4k FD, 8.9k DK)
The only hesitation on Gallen here would be if you put too much stock into his last outing, in which he faltered a bit and allowed four runs in four innings to the Rockies in Coors. I wouldn't do that. He's looked pretty good otherwise and has struck out six or more hitters in each outing so far. He's facing a Mets team that is slumping badly to start the year and has a woeful .121 ISO to RHP. That's one of the worst marks in the league, and enough for me to pull the trigger on Zac here in the hopes of 6-7 clean innings and 6-7 strikeouts tonight.
Charlie Morton vs. PHI (7.9k FD, 7.7k DK)
Charlie has seen a mixed bag of results so far this season when it comes to run prevention, but one thing that has been steady is the strikeouts. He's striking out 27% of opposing hitters and the Phillies have been whiffing 27% of the time against RHP. I have him projected for 7 strikeouts tonight which puts him at the second-most behind Rogers on the slate. That's definitely worth chasing for me at this price point and if you need any more confidence in the spot, he did pitch very effectively against them already back in April.
Bargain Bin
These are the best value pitchers to use, either on FanDuel as your lone starter or on DraftKings as your SP2.
Jameson Taillon vs. WSN (7.1k FD, 8.3k DK)
It took a matchup with Detroit to do it, but Taillong finally got back on track and he whiffed eight Tigers over five frames in his last outing. He's still not pitching deep into games, which is a concern, but I have to get some shares tonight because he's facing a Washington team that carries an abysmal .287 wOBA and .119 ISO against RHP this season. The strikeouts have been one bright spot for Taillon and in this matchup, I project him for around 5-6 if he can get through five innings. I also like the Yankee bats to smash Corbin and get him a big lead today, too.
Mike Foltynewicz vs. SEA (7.7k FD, 6.8k DK)
Is it really time to jump on Folty? As much as I like picking on him, I think this is an intriguing spot for him and you have to admit he's been a pleasant surprise this season, having pitched fairly effectively in all but one start. Seattle has a K rate that's pushing 26% and below-average numbers offensively against RHP. If Folty keeps the ball in the park (homers being his Achilles heel), I think he's a good bet for 15 DK points or 30 FD points, which is probably enough in tournaments at his price point.
Cash Game Rankings:
- Flaherty
- Rogers
- Rodon
- Gallen
GPP Rankings:
- Rogers
- Flaherty
- Gallen
- Morton
- Taillon
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