NFL Draft Winners - Dynasty League Risers

After countless mocks, rampant speculation, and media smokescreens, the 2021 NFL Draft proved unpredictable as ever. Several teams got what they hope is their eventual franchise quarterback. Running backs continue to be devalued while wide receivers flew off the board early and often.

The subsequent domino effect on veteran players will shake things up for fantasy football purposes. In the case of dynasty leagues, this is even more significant. For that reason, we will look at some experienced players at each skill position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who saw their dynasty stock rise following the draft.

In this context, the term "veteran" simply means non-rookies. You'll find a few second-year players in the mix here. My intent is to bring non-obvious names to the forefront. It's clear that all Jaguars receivers will be better off with Trevor Lawrence over Gardner Minshew, for example. That said, here are some dynasty league risers to keep an eye on heading into 2021.

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Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts was technically a winner before the draft when the Eagles traded down to the 12th spot and took themselves out of the rookie QB sweepstakes. They did him one better by moving up ahead of the Giants to snag Heisman winner DeVonta Smith. Hurts now has a pair of first-round receivers to target along with two top receiving options at tight end, at least until they trade Zach Ertz. Adding a pass-catching running back in Kenny Gainwell gives him another weapon, so it's not just the Miles Sanders show in the backfield.

The jury is still out on Hurts because he has all of four NFL starts under his belt. He was outstanding in his first three, rushing for 106 yards in an upset win over the Saints, then throwing for more than 300 yards against Arizona and Dallas. The season ended on a sour note but Doug Pederson is to blame for pulling Hurts and seemingly throwing the game. He still rushed for two TDs that week. Many are hesitant to anoint him a star QB just yet but an improved offense and new coaching staff could put him squarely in the top-five at least in terms of fantasy production. In dynasty, I can't put him ahead of guys like Russell Wilson or Joe Burrow, even though I believe he may outperform them in 2021, but he does sneak into the top 10 ahead of Aaron Rodgers.

 

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Many feel that Mixon's stock went down after the draft when the team passed on behemoth offensive lineman Penei Sewell in favor of receiver Ja'Marr Chase. Another reason for Joe Burrow to pass the ball to one of his guys, less frontline help. It's not all that it seems, though. The team used its second-round pick on OT Jackson Carman out of Clemson and spent two more picks on offensive linemen. They also added Riley Reiff in free agency and will count on another step forward from Jonah Williams, both former first-rounders themselves.

The other reason Mixon belongs as a draft winner is that the team didn't add another running back to the mix until round six, selecting Chris Evans out of Michigan. Evans will battle Trayveon Williams for the backup role now that Giovani Bernard is gone. When Zac Taylor says he envisions Mixon in a three-down role barely getting off the field, it looks like he means it. Having another dynamic receiver like Chase isn't going to cut into Mixon's touches but it will help the offense as a whole and keep safeties honest rather than playing the run. Mixon is still just 24 years old, younger than Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler and therefore belongs in the top-12 dynasty RBs, at least until a rookie leaps over him.

 

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

Why Aiyuk and not Deebo Samuel? They weren't on the field together very often and the QB situation will be completely different, so using 2020 stats can be tricky. The one thing we know is that Trey Lance is clearly an upgrade for the passing game and he will bring the type of verticality that was lacking under Jimmy Garoppolo. He was mostly efficient, completing 67.5% of his passes but he didn't keep defenses honest often enough. His 6.2 Intended Air Yards per Attempt was fourth-lowest among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts last year, ahead of only Jared Goff and dump-off artists Alex Smith and Drew Brees.

Between the two primary receivers in San Fran, there is a huge discrepancy in how they are used. Aiyuk posted a 9.3 aDoT (average depth of target) in his rookie season. By contrast, Samuel had a 2.2 aDoT that was lower than running backs Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman. No other wideout was lower. It's almost impressive that he managed to only accumulate 97 air yards over 44 targets. Short passes to Deebo were often used as a crutch to help out Jimmy G due to his limitations and the inexperienced QBs replacing Garoppolo once he got hurt (again). The bubble screens and end-arounds will still be part of the playbook, so it's not as if Samuel's value will tank. I do believe Aiyuk gets a bigger boost, however, and should assert himself as the WR1 in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Aiyuk slots in at WR22 in my dynasty preseason rankings while Samuel is WR32.

 

Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots

I won't pretend I'm going to be actively seeking out Agholor in the trade market any time soon. Then again, his acquisition cost should be pretty cheap for a 27-year-old receiver coming off a near-900-yard season with eight touchdowns and a career-high 18.7 yards per reception. Now that he's moved to the outside rather than the slot where he resided in Philadelphia, Agholor is seeing fewer targets but making more out of them. He was the anti-Deebo in 2020, ranking sixth-highest among wide receivers with at least 30 targets with a 15.5 aDoT. In other words, he did what Henry Ruggs was supposed to do.

The move to New England doesn't look promising in the short-term with Cam Newton at the helm. Like Garoppolo, he was also among the lowest in IAY per attempt. New England had the second-lowest pass play percentage ahead of only Baltimore and was dead last in passing TD per game. Not a recipe for fantasy success to give a free agent wideout. But that's why they drafted a new QB. Mac Jones isn't the most mobile but he can throw it deep and loves to do just that. Agholor's early 2020 numbers will be down and many fantasy GMs will jump ship. Once the team turns to Jones over Newton, which could come midseason if they aren't winning, then the entire offensive philosophy will necessarily shift. They won't become pass-happy but the deep ball will return and Agholor should thrive. It's best not to acquire him now, especially if sacrificing a rookie pick. Wait until the season starts and throw out a lowball offer if he is unproductive in the first couple of games.

 

Darnell Mooney/Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

Let's face it, we don't care who is passing the ball to Allen Robinson and he is a top-10 WR regardless. The ones who gained value with the selection of Justin Fields were Mooney and Kmet, both second-year players with suddenly sunny futures. As a fifth-round pick out of Tulane, Mooney wasn't expected to do much in an offense without a clear identity and a split personality at QB. He managed to command 23.8% of the air yard share and 16.4% of the targets in Chicago last year, jumping ahead of Anthony Miller. The team heads into 2021 with largely the same receiver group, selecting Dazz Newsome in round six but no other pass-catchers. Mooney is a guy who had a 36.5% College Dominator rating and an 18.9 breakout age in the 91st percentile. That's the profile you like to see in a receiver on your dynasty squad.

Kmet should continue his ascension as the starting tight end, despite Jimmy Graham returning for another year. Kmet was barely involved in the offense but came alive from Week 12 on, averaging six targets and four receptions per game over the last five contests. There wasn't big yardage attached to it but he should increase his touchdown total given his increased red-zone usage over the late portion of the season with three targets inside the 10. Don't go overboard putting Kmet as a starting TE just yet. He can be confidently ranked as a top-15 dynasty TE based on youth and upside.

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