Nick Senzel (OF, CIN) - Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups

3 years ago by Doug Goldring

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ANALYSIS: Nick Senzel has long been a top prospect, both in real life and in fantasy baseball, but injury after injury has held him back again and again. Senzel has been touted as a potential 20-homer/20-steal producer, and there's reason for optimism thus far in the 2021 season, despite a disappointing start resulting in a slightly below-average 98 wRC+.

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Through 107 plate appearances, Senzel has produced a career-high walk rate of 11.2 percent and a career-low strikeout rate of 13.1 percent. Statcast suggests that Senzel's contact skills have also been very strong, with a whiff rate in the 86th percentile. While the power has not been there as of yet this year, with a .074 Isolated Power, his major league rate of .171 entering this year suggests that regression is in the offing. This is supported by the fact that Senzel's xwOBA of .363 outpaces his .318 wOBA by 45 points. In fact, that .363 xwOBA is in the 72nd percentile for the major leagues.

Senzel has only collected two steals so far in 2021, but that number should go up in a hurry. Senzel has been caught attempting to steal a bizarre five times, giving him just a 28.5 percent success rate. With Senzel's 96th percentile sprint speed, that rate should improve. He's also hitting in a potent Reds offense, and could soon pick up second base eligibility. Senzel is due for some valuable production.

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