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Hello everybody and welcome! We hit the 12-turn Carousel road course at Sonoma for the Toyota / Save Mart 350 this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Chase Elliott Over 38.5 Points. This worked out last week after we tweaked some of our projections based on qualifying and long-run ability. The rationale is he is favored and it is a road race where he has won six times in 14 races. This carries risk and again Larson is a safer bet with his lower point total (see below). However, Elliott easily can finish on the podium and lead just enough laps to push or hit the over. That would not be a shock on Sunday. We will take the bait and go with the over here against our better wishes.
Kevin Harvick Over 31.5 Points. Harvick has always done well at Sonoma and this week appears to not be an exception. He just finds a way to finish well late on runs and knows how to drive the car even on the Carousel. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has ten top-ten finishes in 19 starts at Sonoma. A ninth-place or better finish is enough to hit the over. He has finished sixth or better in the last five races on the California track. Harvick may be able to make it six. Take the over already.
William Byron Over 32.5 Points. The idea is great given the build and the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver's consistency. He has now finished in the top-10 in 12 of the last 13 races. This Sunday at Sonoma could likely be 13 in 14 races given how well the No. 24 is running. Byron has looked very fast at Austin two weeks ago and will be on this dry track. He has accrued the third-most points overall in 2021. Taking the over would be a pretty wise move for Byron considering his average finish is ninth and that includes outside the top-25 finishes in Daytona.
Kyle Larson Over 34.5 Points. This is still low for Kyle Larson on Sunday as he seems to just adapt to any track thrown at the No. 5. The Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver could easily qualify in the top five again. Larson did not have any issues negotiating the road track at Austin. There expect to be no rain issues at all Sunday evening. Larson projects well because of this chameleon-like ability. Also, the build from HMS carries the most speed and the best grip on this track. If he keeps his pit sequences in sync, this could easily be a finish near or on the podium. Larson might even have a shot at winning if he can handle that sweeping left well enough.
Matt DiBenedetto Over 25.5 Points. DiBenedetto is a fun pick to take on Sunday because most are just going to forget that he finished in the top-five at Sonoma two years ago. He can drive well on this track and the horsepower package helps the Wood Brothers Racing driver. It is a bit of an equalizer. Add in the downforce regulations and that only aids DiBenedetto more. He only has to finish 16th or better anyway. He starts 17th on Sunday so I am guessing PrizePicks is giving us a present here. Do not look a gift horse in the mouth and take a run here. The over is our choice.
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