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You know, today serves as a good time to remember that not all prospects are going to set the world on fire as soon as they reach the majors.
I'm writing this just a few hours after the news broke that the Seattle Mariners had optioned star prospect Jarred Kelenic back to Triple-A Tacoma. He's shown a lot of potential in the minors with his career .293/.368/.520 triple=slash line, 31 home runs and 37 steals over three seasons, but clearly he needed some time back in the minors to regroup after going hitless in his last 39 at-bats, and going 8-for-83 with a 28 percent strikeout rate over 23 games. But just because he's back in the minors doesn't mean fantasy managers should completely give up on him — they just need to readjust their expectations of what kind of value he'll have and when he'll have it.
It's hard to know exactly who is going to put up big numbers right out the gate, or when exactly that will happen, but there's no denying that the four prospects below are riding a hot streak as of late and are worth keeping an eye on.
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Forrest Wall - OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Level: Triple-A
2021 stats: 27 G, .267/.319/.362, 0 HR, 12 SB, 5 RBI, 13 R
While the power has been slightly down for Wall this season, the steals are up as he is 4-for-4 in stolen base attempts just over his last seven games alone, and is 12-for-13 on the season. He's already two steals away from matching his 2019 season total, and he's done it in nearly 100 fewer games than it took him in that season.
However like I said, the power is down as he has zero home runs so far while his .362 slugging percentage is the second-worst mark of his career and nearly 50 points lower than his career mark. That could in part be due to the fact that he is currently posting the worst strikeout rate of his career at 31.6 percent — over 10 percent higher than his career 21 percent rate. Despite the dip in power and rise in strikeouts, Wall has still managed to hit .267 this year, which lines up closely with the .268 average he posted between 2017 and 2019.
Over his career in the minors, Wall has shown himself to be a threat for 10 to 15 home runs with over 20 stolen bases. It's possible that the lack of home runs and rise in strikeout rate could be a side effect of the missed year of development in 2020, but it's clear from his performance early on that his stolen base potential has not been affected.
Now clearly once George Springer finally returns from injury, that will make it much more difficult for Wall to see playing time in Toronto this year. But if the Blue Jays have another injury strike their outfield while Springer is still out, it's possible we could see Wall at some point this year. At the very least, Wall will likely be in consideration for breaking camp with the team out of Spring Training in 2022.
Tony Santillan - SP, Cincinnati Reds
Level: Triple-A
2021 stats: 6 GS, 32.1 IP, 1-3, 2.51 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 45 K
Don't let the 1-3 record fool you, Santillan has been on fire this season with a career-high 34.4 percent strikeout rate over 32 1/3 innings of work. He's averaging 7.5 strikeouts per start, and in his last two outings he has posted nine strikeouts over six innings against Toledo and 13 strikeouts over seven innings against St. Paul. He has looked like an almost completely different pitcher this season in his first taste of Triple-A, as not only is the strikeout rate a career-best, so are his 2.51 ERA and 1.082 WHIP, and his 9.2 percent walk rate is the second-lowest mark of his career.
All that being said there is a bit of a concern with his home run rate, as his 1.4 HR/9 mark is the worst of his career and his five home runs so far this year have nearly matched his 2019 total of eight home runs in roughly one-third the amount of games. And the problem on top of that is that all five home runs have come over his last three starts, so it's not as if he struggled early in the year and has since improved.
Despite the concern about the home run rate, I still like Santillan's potential this year. Out of the four guys on this list, I think he's the most likely to get called up and make an impact in fantasy this year. I really like that strikeout rate, plus I see him as one of the top options that the Reds will turn to if one of their starters goes down with injury or underperforms.
And given the struggles in the Reds bullpen this year, I could even see him being brought in as some late-inning help — although that would restrict his value to only SV/HLD formats. Bottom line, managers need to pay the closest attention to Santillan out of the guys on this list, and if he gets the call grab him off the waiver-wire right away.
Samad Taylor - 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Level: Double-A
2021 stats: 27 G, .270/.321/.500, 6 HR, 11 SB, 15 RBI, 20 R
He might be the longest shot on this list to have any impact in fantasy this year, but I think he could surprise managers and be a hot waiver-wire pickup if he gets the call to Toronto. He's been particularly hot at the plate over his last seven games, slashing .296/.345/.741 with three home runs and one steal, as he now has six home runs and 11 stolen bases over 27 games this year.
He's shown off plenty of speed in the past with 70 stolen bases between 2018 and 2019, however this year he has shown a surge of power at the plate, as he has nearly matched his career-high of nine home runs in almost 100 fewer games, while his .500 slugging percentage is significantly higher than his career .399 mark. Now that disparity does suggest that maybe the power this year is fluky, however he was a high school draft pick in 2016 and is just 22 years old now — just over two years younger than the weighted average age at Double-A. So it's possible that over the year off in 2020, he was able to develop more muscle mass which has translated into greater power in his bat.
Now like I said, he's a long shot to make the majors this season. Between this season being his first taste of Double-A ball as well as Marcus Semien locked in at second base, a lot of different things would have to fall in just the right way for Taylor to get called up. Now that doesn't mean it's entirely impossible, because while he's primarily a second baseman, he has gotten playing time the past two seasons at third base as well, and this year he's been getting some reps in the outfield.
So it's possible he could reach the majors as a utility guy off the bench to give the regular starters a day off. Ultimately managers should continue to monitor his performance — especially if he gets promoted to Triple-A — and then start preparing for the possibility of him getting a shot at playing time in 2022 if Semien is not re-signed.
Matt Frisbee - SP, San Francisco Giants
Level: Triple-A
2021 stats: 6 GS, 34 IP, 5-1, 1.85 ERA, 0.588 WHIP, 38 K
This is a guy to start getting a little excited about, as he has performed well enough early on this year to already have been promoted from Double-A to Triple-A. Frisbee has gone at least five innings in each of his six starts this year, and in his last two outings at Double-A before being promoted he combined to allow only three runs on six hits with 16 strikeouts over 13 innings of work — earning a quality start and the win in both starts.
His debut outing at Triple-A wasn't necessarily great, but it wasn't a completely horrific start either as he allowed five runs — three earned — on seven hits and one walk while striking out six in five innings against the Reno Aces. Obviously not the most ideal outing, but for a 24-year-old who had never pitched above High-A coming into 2021, it's entirely reasonable to expect some growing pains. But even with that rough start with Triple-A, don't let that distract you from the 30.6 percent strikeout rate and 1.6 percent walk rate he has posted this season, and the 29.5 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate he owns over three seasons in the minors.
As with Santillan, I really like Frisbee's potential for this year. If he continues to pitch well at Triple-A, I could see Frisbee getting called up sometime after the All-Star break — especially with the Giants looking to be in the thick of the playoff hunt so far this year. San Francisco has dealt with several injuries within their starting rotation early on this year, and if another injury strikes late in the season or if one of their starters is underperforming, Frisbee should have a decent shot at getting the call.
And also like with Santillan, I could see the Giants bringing up Frisbee late in the season to help bolster their bullpen for a playoff push. Managers should pay close attention to both Santillan and Frisbee, and while I think Santillan is the most likely to get called up of the two, I think Frisbee will be in position to provide greater fantasy value than Santillan.
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