Brandon Belt (1B, SF) - Week 13 Waiver Wire Pickups

3 years ago by Mike Marteny

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BALLER MOVE: Add in leagues of 12+ teams

ROSTERED IN: 37% of leagues

ANALYSIS: It's easy to forget that Belt hit .309 last year with nine homers and 30 RBI in 51 games. That projects to very close to a 30-100 season over a full season. That's not normal for a guy that just turned 33. Surprisingly enough, Belt has never hit 20 homers in a season. He already has 11 this year. So is there a reason behind this, or is it just a fluke?

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Belt is riding a nine-game hitting streak in which he has three homers, six RBI, and nine runs scored. He has even stolen a base! Taking a quick look at the metrics suggest that Belt's success may continue. At first glance, the .333 BABIP seems high, but Belt has finished over that mark in five of his nine full seasons. For a line drive hitter, that's about what you can expect.

A look at the Statcast profile tells the story of why Belt is getting more pop in his bat. Like many players in this era, he is sacrificing strikeouts for power. The 32% K rate so far is 8.5% higher than any other year of his career. Don't let that scare you off. Belt's walk rate is still elite (94th percentile). Over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Belt has increased his barrel percentage to 16%. His previous career high was 11.3%. The 48.1% hard hit percentage also points to his power of the last couple of years being sustainable.

The .253 average does leave something to be desired, but most of that is a product of his poor first month of the season when Belt hit just .212. The average is up and the strikeouts down since then without a detriment to his newfound power. Belt is a guy that should hit double-digit homers over the rest of the year and pick you up some RBI while boosting your average. The high walk rate is just a bonus for those of you in points leagues or leagues that count OBP.

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