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We're talking about fantasy football here, and in fantasy, football volume is the key to rostering and fielding a winning team. While everything boils down to that concept, seeking volume calls for looking deeper than just the name and reputation of players. Put a wide receiver or tight end in a stacked offense (one featuring multiple top-tier pass-catchers and one or two great rushers) and his volume--and thus his fantasy outcome--will drop without question. The opportunities will go down and with them the chances of scoring fantasy points.
With that in mind, it makes sense to pursue WRs/TEs with a clear and very well-defined No. 1 role without other receivers threatening their target share. Even if the players in those offenses are not top-tier options, they will get all of the opportunities they can handle, which will ultimately benefit them. Those players might not be that good, but they will compensate for it just on pure volume. And the exact opposite is also true: great pass-catchers can rack up points even on low volume, separating themselves from the pack.
Today, I will explore some offenses that enter the 2021 season with very few high-caliber receivers to throw passes to, making their top options great draft picks for the upcoming year.
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Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
I don't think there is a lot to talk about when discussing Davante Adams' talent, ability, and fantasy upside. At the end of the day, Adams finished 2020 as the clear-cut WR1 and it wasn't even close. Even though Adams missed two games last year, he went on to rack up a massive 358.4 PPR points compared to no. 2 Stefon Diggs' 328.6 FP in two more games played. Uh oh, flex on them.
Adams was able to reach that monster tally thanks to his bonkers 149 targets, which is already a wild amount, but it is also short of what PFF projects him to get in 2021: 158 targets, 118 receptions, 1,397 yards with 10 receiving touchdowns, and a total of 315.6 PPR points while putting up those numbers. That's absolutely ridiculous, but nothing new to Adams. He's entering 2021 with five straight seasons averaging 12.0+ YPR on a minimum of 117 targets (he missed two games that year).
The Packers might or might not have QB Aaron Rodgers throwing balls to Adams, but even if Rodgers leaves the team, it is not that Green Bay can do much more other than relying on Adams' catches no matter who the man at the helm is. No changes in the receiving corps other than the addition of rookie Amari Rodgers have Adams' upside looking as strong as ever. Potential no. 1 WR getting off draft boards with an ADP of WR3, which is more than reasonable all things considered.
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
There is one change taking place in Arizona's receiving corps that could affect Hopkins' total target tally by the end of 2021. That is the addition of A.J. Green/Rondale Moore to fill a wideout position that won't feature über-veteran Larry Fitzgerald anymore and for the first time in the past 53 seasons at the very least. Hopkins comes off a career year in which he logged his most targets since 2017--160 in 2020 compared to 174 in 2017. Not bad, even more considering Kyler Murray's rookie status and expected improvement in his all-around game.
How those two (Green and Moore) will affect Hopkins' target share is still to be seen, but judging by PFF projections, the odds are leaning toward Hopkins to keep his dominance of the passing game up next season. Hopkins projects to just two fewer targets than he already got this season, and if Arizona shows the slightest signs of intelligence, then the Cards won't be feeding Green 100+ targets as Cincy did. Because, well, that's a waste of snaps.
Hopkins is expected to finish the year with 150+ targets for the second time playing in the desert, and Christian Kirk is projected to a second-but-already-low 84 targets in 2021, as many as 74 fewer targets than WR1 Hopkins in this offense. Hopkins has a WR4 finish projection and an ADP of WR4. Nothing to be surprised at.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
If you have been living under a rock for a while, let me shock you: Julio Jones, a 10-year veteran and long-time Falcon, is no longer an Atlanta-based footballer. Uh oh, talk about a tasty story. Julio got full of the Falcons' losing ways it seems and just decided to--inadvertently--throw out a statement making it clear he wanted out of Georgia's town. Cold world, Atlanta.
But we're not here to talk about Jones, but actually his heir in Calvin Ridley. Sure, the Falcons made Kyle Pitts the highest-drafted tight end ever, but this is Ridley's offense now and no TE will change that. QB Matt Ryan is still going to be out there manning a pocket he's been living in for the past 13 seasons and counting, and he's the perfect quarterback to help his wideouts put up monster numbers.
Ridley's first three years as a pro, competing with Jones, already saw him reach 92, 93, and lastly 143 (!) targets and he's been able to improve (a lot) on a yearly basis, going from 12.9 PPR points to 15.2 and finally 18.8 in 2020. Ridley has a sky-high ceiling and he's barely scratching it so far by the looks of it. PFF has Ridley projected to 151 targets in which would turn into a career season if all things go as expected. No other WR of the team is projected to 90+ targets, and I'm not as excited with Pitts as some folks out there. Ridley won't be cheap to draft (ADP of WR5) but he looks like the real deal and is projected to a WR2 finish only behind Davante Adams. Must love Atlanta's new honcho.
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