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Sunday afternoon features the Quaker State 400 from Atlanta, Georgia. Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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Pick 1: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Kyle Busch MORE 18.5 Fantasy Points and Kyle Larson MORE 20.5 Fantasy Points
The younger Busch brother and Larson are expected to be two of the better fantasy point producers at Atlanta on Sunday and we are fortunate to have both leading off here but...
For a driver like Kyle Busch, this is less of a risk? Does that sound crazy? Not really. Busch has been on a roll of late and is a threat to win almost every week lately. The Joe Gibbs Racing Driver has an average finish of 5.00 at Atlanta in his last four races there. That is actually better than Kyle Larson's 7.67. That is shocking but true. Busch has finished well late in long runs as well. This bodes nicely for Atlanta usually because the last runs on the final laps are typically more than 15 laps. The Joe Gibbs Racing car is catching up week by week and performance metric qualifying tended to indicate that. Four of the top five qualifiers this week are from that team. Busch starts second and could lead just enough laps in this one to tip the MORE because of his 18.5 prop total. Take the MORE here.
Kyle Larson is so close to leading the points race despite having the best car so far in 2021. Think of some of the crazier things that can happen to a driver. The Hendricks Motorsports Racing Driver last week had his teammate unexpectedly collide into him. The week before at Pocono saw Larson about to win when disaster struck. He blew a tire ending his chances at the victory and barely nailed his prop. Thank god for laps led. Larson led a whopping 269 laps at Atlanta last time around but lost to Ryan Blaney as long runs on high-wear tire tracks have not been as kind to the No. 5. Again, the idea that Larson could lead a ton of laps helps his point total immensely. 100 laps lead equals ten points. Take the more on Sunday with Larson but prepare to have some Pepto Bismol in hand.
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Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Brad Keselowski LESS 15.5 Fantasy Points, Martin Truex Jr. LESS 15.5 Fantasy Points
This prop is a nasty one because of how Keselowski and Truex Jr. have not fared quite as well as they normally should. What does one do?
Brad Keselowski scares anyone because out of nowhere, he can contend at a race. Keselowski is seventh among active drivers at Atlanta the last three years with a win and three top-ten finishes the last four times. That makes taking the LESS quite dicey at best. However, that win did not come this year. The tenth and third at Pocono also give us some pause but that was a 2.5-mile tri-oval. This Atlanta track is just around a mile and a half. Keselowski did not have the long-run speed or downforce the last time NASCAR was in Atlanta. He finished 28th then. While no one is expecting that again, the Team Penske driver likely has to finish in the top five on Sunday. Now, that seems less plausible. Take the LESS here.
These point totals are interesting with Martin Truex Jr. He is starting to show some signs of his form from earlier in the season. Truex Jr. is incredible on these intermediate tracks with high-wear tire scenarios. The build typically leads to the Joe Gibbs Racing team having a bit of an upper hand. Two other things work in our favor. Truex Jr. did fade late in the long run at Atlanta. He dropped all the way to ninth. In that first race, he dropped out of the top ten early at the very beginning. He mounted a charge before the later laps. The No. 19 may have that happen again on Sunday as track temperature becomes an increasing issue. It seems the build for Denny Hamlin could be a better plan than Truex Jr. Take the LESS here.
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