Hunter Renfroe (OF, BOS) - Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups

3 years ago by Mike Marteny

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ANALYSIS: Renfroe has gained quite a reputation for being an all-or-nothing type of fantasy player. His abhorrent .156 average with the Rays last year set that in stone. His .263 average in the first half of this season is 15 points better than his previous best when he hit .248 with the Padres in 2018. Renfroe did have three consecutive seasons of more than 25 homers, all while calling a pitcher's park home from 2017-19 with the Padres. So what is the outlier? This is a guy that the Rays thought enough of to give up both Jake Cronenworth and Tommy Pham for. Yikes!

One major improvement for Renfroe is his strikeout percentage. His 21.5% rate in the first half is the best mark of his career by almost 4%! The 36.1% sweet spot is almost 5% higher than his previous career best. The barrel percentage of 12.8% is the best since his September callup in 2016. More importantly, the expected stats say this isn't a fluke. Renfroe's xBA is .271 and xSLG is .510. Those are actually a tick above where his actual numbers sit right now.

Renfroe finds himself in the 98th percentile for max exit velocity (116.4 mph) and is in above the 80th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage. His average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and xBA are all in the red on his Statcast page as well.

If we have to point for one main reason for Renfroe's strong season, it has to be how he handles breaking pitches in general and curveballs in particular. Renfroe is hitting .263 against curves this year after just .125 last year and .043 in 2019. The only pitch that Renfroe isn't hitting well this year is the cutter, which was previously the pitch he fared best against. We can expect some progression on those stats, suggesting that .263 might not be his ceiling.

Renfroe is still on pace for a 25-homer season despite a miserable April in which he hit .167 with just one homer in 18 games. He got hot in May, hitting .319 and continued that into June with a .295 average. If you are in need of power, go out there and get Renfroe. We have reason to believe that his average wont hurt you this year like it has in previous years. Forget about April. The strong May and June along with positive Statcast scores across the board suggest that his numbers aren't a fluke.

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